Algunos indicadores parecen señalar que el sector real de la economía cae a un ritmo bastante menor que durante el tercer trimestre del año pasado, consigna un informe del Banco Ciudad. En enero 2015, el Índice General de Actividad (IGA) de Orlando Ferreres se mantuvo prácticamente en los mismos niveles que en el mes previo e incluso que en el promedio del cuarto trimestre del año pasado, según su medición sin estacionalidad. De acuerdo a este indicador, la economía caía a un ritmo anualizado cercano al 7% en el tercer trimestre de 2014, mientras que durante el trimestre siguiente, iniciada la actual estrategia de utilizar el tipo de cambio como “ancla”, el IGA ya declinaba a una velocidad inferior, del 2,5% anualizada.
No es de extrañar, por tanto, que durante esta última semana de febrero el Banco Central continuara con su política de devaluaciones por debajo de la inflación, cerrando el mes con un deslizamiento del tipo de cambio oficial de sólo 1%, igual a lo observado en el mes de enero. En este contexto, y con una demanda de “dólar ahorro” que en febrero de 2015 resultó más de 170% superior a la de un año atrás, alimentando la oferta en el mercado por dólar “blue”, esta cotización informal cerró con una apreciación mensual del 4%, muy similar a la observada en otros tipos de cambio financieros (-4,3% el Contado con Liquidación y -4,4% el dólar MEP). Así, las brechas entre el tipo de cambio oficial y sus versiones alternativas se ubicaron, hacia el fin del mes, en valores que van desde el 34% en el caso del Contado con Liquidación al 50% en el del dólar “blue”, registros muy parecidos a los de un año atrás, pero inferiores a los máximos de 2014.
Con la inflación transitando en febrero incluso por debajo del 2% mensual, la velocidad crucero observada hasta enero, y sin un cambio de relevancia en las políticas de fondo, los esfuerzos del gobierno y del Banco Central en particular parecen focalizarse en continuar defendiendo las reservas (las brutas se ubican ligeramente por arriba de los USD 31.000 millones), tratando de obtener financiamiento adicional en los mercados para afrontar los importantes pagos de 2015 y la baja liquidación de divisas generada por el sector exportador, con un claro objetivo de sostener una política de anclaje cambiario e inflacionario, al menos hasta el 10 de diciembre.
AIRE PARA EL CONSUMO
En lo que respecta al consumo, los primeros datos de 2015 no resultan muy alentadores. Las mediciones de ventas en supermercados y shoppings no han dejado de ser negativas desde mediados de 2014. Para el primer mes de 2015, la tendencia se mantiene, con fuertes caídas de las ventas en centros comerciales (-11,9% interanual) y algo más moderadas en el caso de los supermercados (-3%), tomando en cuenta en ambos casos los niveles de facturación informados por el INDEC, ajustados por mediciones privadas de precios. En contraposición, datos de CAME, señalan que los locales minoristas más chicos mostraron un leve repunte en sus ventas del 1,5% interanual en enero, tras contraerse 6,5% en promedio en 2014, siendo éste el único dato positivo conocido hasta el momento a inicios de 2015.
Recién se espera cierto aire para el consumo a partir del segundo trimestre del año, ante la recomposición de los salarios reales que podría acompañar las principales paritarias, en un contexto en el que el tipo de cambio oficial continúa deslizándose lentamente y la inflación se mantiene contenida. Aunque para ello será clave que el BCRA morigere las restricciones que pesan sobre las importaciones (sacrificando parte de las divisas que ingresen por la liquidación agrícola), de manera que la mayor demanda sea acompañada por la oferta agregada y no derive, exclusivamente, en mayores presiones inflacionarias.
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