Cristina tendrá que devaluar antes de irse

Cada vez con más frecuencia escuchamos frases del tipo “el kirchnerismo le dejará el costo político de la devaluación al próximo gobierno” o similares. A quienes las pronuncian les digo: están equivocados y no entienden cómo funciona el sistema de precios. Cristina Kirchner se verá forzada a realizar una devaluación, […]

Cada vez con más frecuencia escuchamos frases del tipo “el kirchnerismo le dejará el costo político de la devaluación al próximo gobierno” o similares. A quienes las pronuncian les digo: están equivocados y no entienden cómo funciona el sistema de precios. Cristina Kirchner se verá forzada a realizar una devaluación, aún contra su voluntad. ¿Por qué? Porque los precios internacionales no responden a la voluntad de la falsa reina del Nilo.

Por Miguel Angel Boggiano, director de Carta Financiera.

Quien está empujando al gobierno a devaluar es Brasil, destinatario del 20% de nuestras exportaciones (lo que lo hace nuestro principal comprador). A menudo leemos títulos como “Brasil volvió a devaluar”, lo cual es inexacto. El merc ado de monedas determina todos los días cuál es la tasa de conversión de reales por dólar. Si bien el Banco Central de Brasil puede interv enir, quien determina el tipo de cambio es la oferta y demanda de reales. No hay una decisión política de devaluar, sino que el tipo de cambio se deprecia o aprecia al ritmo de la oferta y demanda de reales. Esto es porque en Brasil efectivamente hay un mercado libre para intercambiar dólares por reales. En Argentina, ese mercado está totalmente intervenido y es ficticio. De no ser así, podríamos comprar toda la cantidad de dólares que quisiéramos a $8,70.

Afirmar que el gobierno argentino podrá mantener el tipo de cambio oficial en los niveles actuales o con “devaluaciones programadas” es muy parecido a pensar que los gobiernos pueden fijar algunos precios. Y esta idea la han tenido cientos de gobiernos a lo largo de la historia, pretendiendo fijar principalmente su tipo de cambio. Los resultados han sido contundentes: en el 100% de los casos los gobiernos han eventualmente fracasado en esa tarea. Un ejemplo próximo es la fuerte devaluación de la libra esterlina en 1992, pero podríamos hablar también del reciente anuncio del Banco Central de Suiza por el cual decidió dejar de defender su moneda.

Inglaterra no pudo contener la devaluación de la libra, Arabia Saudita no puede contener el precio del petróleo, Cristina Kirchner no podrá mantener al peso argentino en estos niveles disparatados. ¿Por qué? Porque necesita de la entrada de dólares, y con este tipo de cambio atrasado, cada día que pasa las proyecciones de ingresos netos de dólares caen. Simplemente no le dan las cuentas: va a necesitar de esos dólares antes de irse y no tiene de dónde sacarlos (no alcanza con los préstamos oscurantistas provistos por China).

ARGENTINA ES CARA

La mayoría de los países se han vuelto más baratos que Argentina en el último año. Y ser caro o barato es una cuestión relativa. Todos nuestros vecinos venden productos idénticos a los nuestros y cada vez los ofrecen a precios más bajos. No hay que ser un erudito para entender que quienes antes nos compraban, ahora le comprarán a nuestros vecinos.
Para ver esto, no sólo tenemos que comparar cómo evolucionó el tipo de cambio de un país, sino también su inflación. Voy a explicar esto con un ejemplo bien sencillo:

Si un ciudadano estadounidense venía a Argentina el 1 de febrero de 2014, con 100 dólares podía comprar 801 pesos. ¿Cuántos bienes podía comprar? Imaginemos por un instante que existe un único bien que vale $1. Entonces este ciudadano podía comprar 801 unidades de este bien.

Viajemos ahora a marzo de 2015. Ese mismo estadounidense puede comprar con 100 dólares 877 pesos. Pero ahora ese único bien que antes costaba $1, cuesta $1,40 (por la inflación). Entonces con sus 877 pesos puede comprar sólo 626,43 bienes (monto de 877 pesos dividido el precio de $1,40).

Tenemos entonces que antes compraba 801 bienes y ahora compra 626,43. Es decir que el poder adquisitivo de 100 dólares cayó un 21,80% desde febrero de 2014 a la fecha.

¿Qué p asó en el resto de los países del mundo? En casi todos los países del mundo, hoy 100 dólares compran más bienes que en febrero de 2014 y en particular en Brasil compran un 20,5% más:

Para rematar, la última semana el real se depreció casi un 10% más. Cada vez que escuchen “no vamos a devaluar aún cuando el real haya caído” deben interpretarlo como “estamos pensando cómo disfrazar nuestro relato porque vamos a tener que devaluar sí o sí “.

Conclusión: creo que lo más inteligente es dejar de repetir como la manada que “Cristina no va a asumir el costo de la devaluación”. Esa es una decisión que excede sus facultades. El mercado y el sistema de precios son mucho más poderosos que ella y ya han tomado la decisión diciendo a los gritos que Argentina está cada día más cara y que la devaluación es inevitable.

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Martín Redrado: "Habrá que desactivar el campo minado"

Lun Mar 16 , 2015
El dirigente del Frente Renovador (FR) y ex titular del Banco Central de la República Argentina, Martín Redrado, aseguró que “no hay margen para la improvisación” y que se está trabajando para “desactivar el campo minado” que está dejando este gobierno, y lo lograremos “a través de la atracción de […]

Cristina tendrá que devaluar antes de irse

tiempo de lectura: 3 min