Menor inflación y dólar quieto, ¿hasta cuándo?

Sería un error no prestarle atención a la aceleración de la emisión monetaria a pesar de que la inflación minorista se desaceleró (según IPC Congreso) 10 puntos porcentuales (de 41.1% a 31.4%) en los últimos meses, según un informe de la consultora Economía y Regiones. La actual desaceleración de la […]

Sería un error no prestarle atención a la aceleración de la emisión monetaria a pesar de que la inflación minorista se desaceleró (según IPC Congreso) 10 puntos porcentuales (de 41.1% a 31.4%) en los últimos meses, según un informe de la consultora Economía y Regiones. La actual desaceleración de la inflación es fruto del torniquete monetario del año pasado (cuando el BCRA hacía crecer la base monetaria al 18% interanual) y del dólar cuasi fijo, que sí impacta inmediatamente sobre la inflación. A su vez, la inflación también se contiene con la estabilidad del dólar en el mercado cambiario paralelo. La venta del dólar ahorro abastece de billetes al mercado “negro” y junto con los mayores controles mantienen estable la cotización del dólar blue. Como puede verse, los fundamentos que hay detrás de la desaceleración de la inflación no son demasiados sólidos. El dólar cuasi fijo muy probablemente aumente la velocidad de su deslizamiento. Y un dólar oficial

(un poco) más elevado impactaría sobre la inflación. A su vez, un dólar oficial más caro empujaría al alza al dólar blue. Para ponerlo en números, si el dólar oficial continúa deslizándose al ritmo actual, cerraría el año en torno a $9,80. Si la brecha cambiaria se mantuviera en el 48% actual, el dólar blue cerraría el año en torno a $14,4. Sin embargo, todos estos supuestos son optimistas, porque es probable que los valores del dólar oficial y del dólar blue finalmente terminen en niveles superiores a los mencionados. Es más, de continuar la actual aceleración en el ritmo de la emisión monetaria se sentiría el impacto sobre la inflación a partir de la segunda parte del año. Además, la venta de dólar ahorro es otro elemento que pone en duda la sustentabilidad de los fundamentos que hay detrás de la desaceleración de los precios y la estabilidad del dólar blue. El BCRA pierde reservas vendiendo dólar ahorro (usd920MM en enero y febrero) que maquilla endeudándose a través del convenio de swap con China. Es decir, Argentina se endeuda para que unos pocos empleados registrados1, puedan comprar dólares a precio oficial, con la intención de ahorrar en divisas y/o para venderlos en el mercado paralelo obteniendo una ganancia. De seguir el actual ritmo de venta de dólar ahorro hasta fin de año el BCRA podría perder USD5.000 MM de reservas adicionales. De complicarse el escenario inflacionario y cambiario, las ventas podrían ser aún mayores, con lo cual el BCRA tendría menos dólares y más deuda para cuando tenga lugar la asunción de la próxima administración. En definitiva, la actual desaceleración inflacionaria y la presente calma cambiaria tienen fundamentos pocos sólidos, ya que esconden un escenario monetario y de reservas que se va complicando día a día.

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Menor inflación y dólar quieto, ¿hasta cuándo?

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