Entrevista a Aldo Abram, economista y Director Ejecutivo de la Fundación Libertad y Progreso, sobre los controles estatales sobre el mercado cambiario argentino.
¿Por qué el Gobierno optó por implementar una medida tan nociva? ¿Considerás que logró en parte la finalidad que buscaba?
El gobierno venía incrementando el financiamiento de sus excesos de gastos públicos con recursos del Banco Central. Esto implicaba cobrar impuesto inflacionario, para lo cual se estuvo devaluando el peso. En 2011, las erogaciones electorales implicaron una creciente depreciación de la moneda local que, de haberse reflejado plenamente en el tipo de cambio, hubiera significado un fuerte aumento de los precios de los bienes, es decir de las cosas que se compran en el supermercado. Por ende, para evitar dicho costo político, el gobierno decidió ponerle un precio máximo al valor oficial del dólar; lo que significó desalentar la oferta e incentivar la demanda. El consecuente “desabastecimiento” de divisas tuvo que ser provisto por el Banco Central a costa de sus reservas.
Una vez superados los comicios, la solución pasaba por reordenar las cuentas públicas y dejar de exprimir al Central. Sin embargo, la decisión fue otra, aumentar las posibilidades de saquearlo modificando su Carta Orgánica y sacar del mercado oficial de cambio a gran parte de la demanda de los particulares y las empresas. De esa forma, por un tiempo lograron dejar de perder reservas. El problema es que la necesidad de cobrar impuesto inflacionario creciente continuó y con ella la devaluación del peso; pero la idea del cepo era, justamente, que no se reflejara en el valor oficial del dólar, generando un nuevo retraso cambiario creciente y, por ende, nueva caída en el stock de divisas.
Dejando a un lado los cuestionamientos constitucionales de la medida, ¿cuáles fueron sus resultados y a que sectores afectó directamente?
El primer sector afectado fue el inmobiliario; ya que el peso no es considerado reserva de valor o instrumento de ahorro. Sólo los activos externos son alternativa de atesoramiento a quedarse con una propiedad; por lo que las operaciones se hacen en dólares. Al desaparecer el acceso a moneda extranjera, las posibilidades de juntar una punta vendedora con una compradora se redujeron abruptamente. Por otro lado, aquellos que tenían las divisas las hacían valer y los vendedores que no estaban apurados no admitieron la baja de precios demandada; porque no tenían alternativa de ahorro. Con la disminución de las operaciones inmobiliarias, también se resintió el sector de la construcción.
Con el tiempo, los sectores que producen bienes exportables e importables empezaron a perder competitividad. Como dijimos, el cepo servía para retrasar el valor del dólar oficial con respecto a lo que debía ser su precio dada la real devaluación del peso. Sin embargo, los costos de las empresas sí subían reflejando la depreciación de nuestra moneda. Así es como todos estos sectores quedaron metidos en una prensa que fue asfixiándolos crecientemente. Este es el motivo por el cual la economía tendió a desacelerarse para terminar entrando en recesión a fines de 2013, de la que no saldrá hasta que se elimine el cepo.
Algunos productores locales de bienes importables terminaron recibiendo algún alivio debido a la creciente escasez de divisas; ya que el Banco Central y el gobierno empezaron a restringir severamente las compras al exterior, protegiéndolos de la competencia externa. Sin embargo, para muchas empresas de bienes exportables eso implicó una menor competitividad aún; ya que no pudieron elegir los mejores y más baratos insumos para producir. No debería extrañarnos, entonces, que cada vez más sectores exportadores encuentren dificultades para producir y, por ende, la menor venta externa signifique, a su vez, mayor escasez de divisas.
¿Cómo afectó a los argentinos tanto a nivel económico, como a nivel de confianza? A tres años de esta limitación, ¿crees que lo aceptamos o nos acostumbramos?
Los argentinos hemos tenido una enorme pérdida de riqueza y, por ende, de bienestar económico gracias al cepo; más allá de lo más importante, el avasallamiento de nuestros derechos. La mala evolución de la economía de los últimos años se justifica mayormente en esta restricción que, además, incluyó limitar el giro de dividendos al exterior.
Encima la creciente retención al ingreso de divisas, implícita en el actual control cambiario, también se aplica a las que ingresan para invertirse en el país. Obviamente, no hay muchas inversiones que puedan ser rentables si, para traer los fondos, hay que pagarle al Banco Central un “impuesto” que hoy ronda un tercio del capital proveniente del exterior. A nadie le debería extrañar que la inversión externa directa haya desaparecido de la Argentina y seguirá siendo mínima en la medida que el cepo y la restricción al giro de dividendos se mantenga.
Lamentablemente, los argentinos no somos conscientes del costo en bienestar económico que está teniendo el cepo; ya que relacionamos sus consecuencias negativas con otros factores que son menores. Por otro lado, tenemos una cómoda tendencia a la resignación que nos lleva a adaptarnos a las decisiones del poder de turno que violentan nuestros derechos y afectan negativamente nuestro patrimonio.
Por otro lado, el riesgo que deviene del cepo es creciente; ya que está destinado a terminar mal, en la medida en que se lo sostiene en el tiempo. En 70 años de historia argentina hemos tenido más de 20 programas con control de cambios y todos terminaron muy mal o desastrosamente. Por ende, con el tiempo, esa memoria es la que va primando en las decisiones económicas locales.
¿Cuánto tiempo más puede mantenerse la brecha entre el dólar oficial y el blue?
Es muy difícil estimar cuánto tiempo y hasta qué porcentaje puede aumentar la brecha cambiaria. Sí sabemos que en la medida que se mantenga el cepo será creciente, excepto por los momentos en que la necesidad de darle algún grado de realismo al tipo de cambio oficial, obliga al gobierno a dejarlo pegar un salto, como a principios de 2014; lo cual volverá a suceder en 2015.
De todas formas, un factor que hay que incorporar es la caída en la demanda real de pesos, que se inició a mediados de 2013 debido a la creciente inflación, y se profundizó con el temor generado por el default selectivo. Si del temor pasáramos a un círculo vicioso que derivara en pánico, la demanda de moneda local se desplomaría y, con ella, su valor. Esto significará que el dólar paralelo se exponencie, derivando en una corrida cambiaria. Si no se la contiene, la preocupación por el valor de los pesos se trasladará a aquellos que están en los bancos; lo que significará una corrida contra los depósitos. Este escenario es muy poco probable que derive en una debacle. A partir de superado el 100% de brecha, las posibilidades de que esto ocurra se potencian.
¿Se podría levantar el cepo de un día para otro? Si se hace, ¿cuáles serían las consecuencias?
La forma menos costosa social y económicamente de salir del cepo es hacerlo de inmediato y hacia un mercado único y libre de cambios. Sin embargo, lo principal pasa por dar señales creíbles de que se atacará el problema que nos llevó a esta situación, el exceso de gasto público que terminó en el saqueo del Banco Central. Un gobierno que sea creíble en ese sentido, debería admitir rápidamente la ficción que significa el valor cepo del dólar y, por ende, salir a la realidad. Es decir, liberarlo; lo que lo llevará a su verdadero precio. Seguramente, al principio habrá un exceso de demanda y, por ende, tenderá a subir más de lo que corresponde. Dependerá del grado de solvencia del Banco Central, es decir la relación entre las reservas y sus pasivos financieros, el valor donde podrá defender efectivamente el valor de la moneda local.
El costo es conocido, la suba del tipo de cambio oficial arrastrará los precios de los bienes y eso impactará negativamente en el poder de compra de los argentinos, en particular los de menor ingreso. Esto es inevitable y, de hecho, pretender hacerlo gradualmente sólo llevará a un mayor costo social final. A fines de 2013 quedó demostrado que cualquier gradualidad cambiaria lleva a una fuerte pérdida de reservas y, si este fuera el camino, al final del recorrido, terminará implicando un alza mayor del tipo de cambio y, por ende, de la pobreza.
¿Qué le aconsejaría hacer al Gobierno con el cepo al dólar?
Es poco probable que este gobierno esté dispuesto a hacer nada razonable con el cepo. Lo más que se le podría pedir es que controle el crecimiento del gasto público primario para llevándolo del crecimiento de más del 40%ia. a uno más cercano al 30%ia. De esta forma, se exprimiría menos al banco central incrementando las probabilidades de entregar este problema al próximo gobierno que tendrá la credibilidad y, esperemos, la convicción y la idoneidad para resolverlo de la forma menos costosa.
Un paso intermedio que podría ayudar al actual gobierno es buscar un desdoblamiento cambiario. No resuelve los problemas de fondo; pero permite ganar tiempo. Este último no es un tema menor; ya que dado el desmanejo actual del gasto público las probabilidades de volver a vivir una crisis económica no es descartable.
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