Segundo trimestre: Tasa de desempleo habría superado el 15%

En su estudio sobre empleo en Argentina, la consultora Ecolatina, proyecta que la tasa de desempleo habría superado el 15% durante el segundo trimestre, y cerraría el año en la zona del 13,5%, habiendo escalado más de 4 p.p. durante 2020. Pese a que dicha cifra se ubicará por debajo del pico de 20% de 2002, no deja de ser preocupante.

La economía argentina acumuló una caída de 4,5% del PIB entre 2018 y 2019, pero fue una contracción que tuvo un impacto relativamente acotado en el empleo registrado: pese a que se destruyeron 4,5% de los puestos de trabajo asalariado privado formal (-280 mil), el avance de los trabajadores monotributistas (+3,4%, +26 mil puestos) morigeró la pérdida de empleo formal (-2%, -240 mil puestos). No obstante, si sumamos a los trabajadores informales, la ecuación arroja un incremento en el empleo -aunque de menor calidad- durante dicho período.

La caída del salario real atenuó el ajuste vía cantidad de puestos de trabajo, pero también provocó el ingreso al mercado laboral de personas que buscaban compensar la pérdida de poder adquisitivo de las familias como un todo. La demanda de trabajo no pudo absorber a todos ellos, y el resultado fue que pese al incremento del empleo, también aumentó el desempleo, que pasó de 7,2% en el cierre de 2017 a casi 9% en el último trimestre de 2019.

Lamentablemente, todos los problemas de nuestra frágil economía se agravaron producto de la pandemia, y el mercado laboral no fue la excepción. La destrucción de puestos de trabajo (registrados, cuentapropistas e informales) aceleró el incremento del desempleo y se profundizó la caída del poder adquisitivo de los trabajadores durante la primera parte de este año.

La destrucción de puestos de trabajo del sector asalariado privado registrado es sólo la punta del iceberg. Los principales afectados por el deterioro del mercado laboral son los trabajadores informales y cuentapropistas, a quienes, en muchos casos, la merma en los ingresos podría ocasionarles caer por debajo de la línea de pobreza

En un contexto de prohibición de despidos, y donde muchos acuerdos paritarios contemplan reducciones de salarios nominales (suspensiones a cambio de estabilidad laboral), cabe preguntarse si el cierre de empresas fue importante para explicar parte de la destrucción de los puestos de trabajos privados. En este sentido, AFIP informó que durante el primer cuatrimestre del 2020 se “apagaron” casi 18.000 empresas, la mayoría con menos de 10 empleados, afectando a casi 40.000 trabajadores, un quinto de los casi 200.000 empleos asalariados privados formales perdidos.


Según datos del Ministerio de Trabajo, entre diciembre de 2019 y abril de 2020 se destruyeron el 2,5% del total de los empleos formales (-310 mil), superando la caída acumulada en 2018-2019. En este caso, el deterioro no estuvo liderado por los trabajadores asalariados privados registrados (-3,2%, -194 mil puestos), sino por autónomos (-5,2%) y monotributistas (-4%). Esta lógica responde al distinto nivel de exposición en que se encuentra cada modalidad de ocupación: los despidos del sector privado están prohibidos por decreto, algo que no abarca a los trabajadores independientes.


Pese a la ayuda estatal (ATP), la crisis del mercado laboral se habría agravado en los últimos meses, incluso en ausencia de un cierre masivo de establecimientos productivos. Los sectores no esenciales, la construcción y restaurantes y hoteles serán los más perjudicados en un contexto que también afecta a la industria y el comercio (rubros muy relevantes en términos de empleo formal). En suma, estimamos que la cuarentena ocasionaría una pérdida de 400 mil asalariados privados registrados.

Considerando que la informalidad alcanza a aproximadamente 40% de los asalariados (tres millones de personas en el ámbito urbano según la última Encuesta Permanente de Hogares del INDEC), cualquier análisis que excluya a este sector estará incompleto. Dado que una parte importante de los mismos no se desempeña en sectores “esenciales” (construcción, restaurantes, servicios personales, empleados domésticos, servicios de entretenimiento y deportivos) y no están protegidos por las regulaciones laborales, estimamos que cerca de 1,5 millones de trabajadores no registrados habrían tenido dificultades serias para trabajar durante la cuarentena.

Si además observamos las complicaciones que tuvieron los trabajadores cuentapropistas (1 millón más), podemos afirmar que casi 3 millones de personas activas en el mercado laboral tuvieron problemas para mantener su empleo y/o nivel de ingresos durante la etapa más restrictiva de la cuarentena.

Pese a que esta dinámica fue inducida por el confinamiento para evitar una crisis sanitaria, sus efectos no dejan de ser menos reales. Como el resto de las variables económicas, el mercado laboral sufrirá un duro golpe por la pandemia, dejando una asignatura pendiente a resolver el día después.

Por último, para estimar la tasa de desempleo, hay que tener en cuenta distintas consideraciones. En primer lugar, que nuevos demandantes presionarán sobre el mercado de trabajo ante la necesidad de recomponer el poder adquisitivo de los hogares, factor que podría acentuarse si se le suma el temor a la pérdida del empleo del jefe/a de hogar. En la dirección opuesta, las restricciones a la movilidad y las bajas expectativas de encontrar un empleo podrían expulsar a la inactividad a muchas personas (efecto desaliento). Asimismo, es de esperarse que tras el confinamiento los trabajadores informales o cuentapropistas vayan reinsertándose gradualmente a sus actividades, ya que estas modalidades son, sin dudas, las que mayor terreno tienen por recuperar en el corto plazo.

 

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