Pandemia de pánico económico: Cuáles serán las consecuencias según los principales economistas

Coronavirus: “Estamos muy cerca de una recesión global” por el rápido avance de la pandemia

Derechos de autor de la imagen GETTY IMAGESEconomistas entrevistados  coinciden en que estamos “muy cerca de una recesión global”.

La rápida propagación del coronavirus, ahora convertido en pandemia, está provocando pánico en los mercados financieros, fuga de capitales, devaluación de las monedas frente al dólar y una creciente amenaza de recesión global.

Aunque en un principio la situación parecía estar confinada a los países asiáticos, el escenario actual es completamente distinto: el brote está presente en al menos 114 países, ha contagiado a cerca de 120.000 personas y ha dejado más de 4.200 víctimas fatales.

A la decisión de Italia de poner a todo el país en cuarentena -además de una rápida propagación de la enfermedad en el resto de Europa y Estados Unidos- se suma el desplome de los precios de petróleo y la montaña rusa de las bolsas, haciendo que muchos expertos consideren que una recesión económica global durante el primer semestre de este año sea casi inminente.

Jeffrey Frankel, profesor de la Escuela Harvard Kennedy, de la Universidad de Harvard, le dice a BBC Mundo que la posibilidad de una contracción económica “parece haber aumentado dramáticamente”.

“Estamos muy cerca de una recesión global”, advierte.

Una voz de alerta que ha comenzado a extenderse entre la mayor parte de los economistas e inversores, especialmente ahora que los casos de contagiados están aumentando velozmente.

Este miércoles Wall Street se hundió en un “mercado bajista” (bear market, en inglés), luego de que el índice Dow Jones terminara un 20% más bajo en relación a su récord alcista de febrero, poniendo fin al período más largo de alzas en los mercados bursátiles en la historia de Estados Unidos.

El desplome bursátil se produjo después de que la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) anunciara que el coronavirus es oficialmente una “pandemia”.

Piazarra en Wall StreetDerechos de autor de la imagenGETTY IMAGESWall Street se convirtió el miércoles en un “mercado bajista” o “bear market”.

En el día a día, el temor al contagio y las medidas de aislamiento tomadas en algunos países, han golpeado duramente al sector turístico, con aerolíneas reportando inéditas pérdidas financieras que las han llevado a cerrar rutas aéreas o a operar vuelos “fantasma” casi sin pasajeros.

Entre las medidas más drásticas, Estados Unidos anunció el miércoles la suspensión de “todos los viajes desde Europa” hacia su país por 30 días.

Además, muchas empresas les han pedido a sus empleados que trabajen desde casa, mientras que el cierre de fábricas en China y en otros lugares, han causado problemas en las cadenas globales de producción.

En este escenario las empresas se están preparando para informar resultados en rojo, y si el crecimiento económico se estanca -con descenso en las inversiones y menos consumo en los hogares- los efectos económicos de la pandemia podrían generar un aumento en el desempleo y estancamiento en los salarios.

¿El peor de los escenarios?

El coronavirus amenaza con paralizar el crecimiento global“, le dice a BBC Mundo Tom Orlik, economista jefe de Bloomberg Economics.

Hace un mes, el escenario más probable parecía un brote importante limitado a China y otros países que sufren efectos relativamente menores. Eso ahora se ve demasiado optimista“, agrega.

Avión en vueloDerechos de autor de la imagen GETTY IMAGESLas aerolíneas podrían perder hasta US$113.000 millones en ingresos este año.

Las posibilidades de que se produzca el peor de los escenarios, con las principales economías sufriendo un impacto significativo, aumentan día a día“.

 

En ese caso, el costo global podría llegar a los US$ 2,7 billones, si todos los países se ven expuestos a las consecuencias de la pandemia.

Y si la economía estadounidense se contrae, plantea Orlik, la dinámica de las elecciones presidenciales también podría verse afectada.

Rohan Williamson, profesor de finanzas de la Escuela de Negocios McDonough, de la Universidad de Georgetown, Washington DC, también cree que estamos cerca de una recesión global. Los efectos del coronavirus y la volatilidad en los mercados bursátiles mundiales son indicadores que preocupan a los inversores, comenta. “Claramente ha habido un shock en la demanda global que provoca un gran impacto“, explica Williamson.

¿Y América Latina?

Marcos Casarin, economista jefe para América Latina de la consultora británica Oxford Economics, proyecta que la contracción económica generalizada se dejará caer en el primer trimestre y será de “corta duración”.

Desde esa perspectiva, Casarin dice que dadas las circunstancias, “estamos muy cerca de una recesión global“, aunque el principal signo de interrogación es qué pasará con la recuperación que debería llegar en el segundo trimestre.

Pasajeros máscarasGETTY IMAGESLos inversores prefieren refugiar sus capitales en el dólar en la medida que el brote se propaga y aumentan los temores sobre el crecimiento económico global.

Todo dependerá de cuántos bloqueos de emergencia se impongan más allá de marzo“.

En el caso de América Latina, explica, estamos frente a un cóctel preocupante. “La combinación entre caída del precio del petróleo, desplome de las monedas y coronavirus, es definitivamente negativa para el crecimiento“, apunta el economista.

Reales brasileñosGETTY IMAGESBrasil, Chile y Colombia están entre los países más afectados por la devaluación de sus monedas en 2020.

Y los países que ya están en recesión (como Argentina, por ejemplo) “verán una recesión más profunda”, mientras que los que están al borde de una, como es el caso de México“se verán arrastrados a una recesión”.

Sobre cómo se puede enfrentar la crisis en la región, Casarin dice que la mayoría de los gobiernos prácticamente no tiene espacio para relajar la política fiscal, es decir, bajar las tasas de interés, reduciendo el costo del crédito.

“Lo peor aún está por venir”

Aunque las proyecciones varían, existe una especie de consenso entre los analistas financieros de que el panorama debería mejorar en la segunda mitad del año. Sin embargo, muchos advierten que el impacto económico no ha tocado fondo, en la medida que el virus sigue propagándose aceleradamente.

Lo peor para la economía aún está por venir en los próximos meses“, escribió Joachim Fels en una nota a sus clientes, asesor económico global de PIMCO (Pacific Investment Management Company), una firma que maneja fondos de inversión a gran escala.

Flecha en caídaGETTY IMAGESEl coronavirus amenaza con paralizar el crecimiento global“, advirtió Tom Orlik, economista jefe de Bloomberg Economics.

Mientras que Jan Hatzius, economista jefe del banco de inversión Goldman Sachs, le informó a sus clientes que la duración y la profundidad de la contracción económica dependen de las medidas que tomen los gobiernos. Habrá que ver “si las autoridades de salud pueden retrasar materialmente la propagación del virus a través de un aumento en las pruebas, restricciones en las reuniones masivas y cuarentenas de personas infectadas”.

Neil Shearing, economista jefe de la firma de análisis Capital Economics, advirtió que si las condiciones empeoran, se aproxima una “recesión aguda, pero probablemente corta“.

Y agregó que a medida que el virus se propaga, hay una buena posibilidad de que el escenario más negativo de las proyecciones económicas, se convierta en el más probable.

Organismos internacionales también han hecho proyecciones barajando distintos escenarios, según el ritmo de propagación del virus.

En el peor de los casos, el crecimiento económico mundial podría descender a la mitad de lo que se había proyectado (bajando incluso hasta 1,5%), según la Organización para la Cooperación y Desarrollo Económico (OCDE).

Y la Conferencia de las Naciones Unidas para el Comercio y el Desarrollo (UNCTAD) esta semana alertó que el costo de la crisis en el ingreso global podría llegar a US$ 2 billones, y que la duración y la profundidad de la crisis dependerán de tres cosas: cuán lejos y cuán rápido se propagará el virus, cuánto tiempo pasará antes de que se encuentre una vacuna y qué tan efectivos serán los gobiernos para mitigar el daño.

Prensa Económica

271 thoughts on “Pandemia de pánico económico: Cuáles serán las consecuencias según los principales economistas

  1. Pingback: buy viagra canada
  2. Pingback: http://droga5.net
  3. hey there and thank you for your information – I’ve certainly picked up anything new from right here.

    I did however expertise a few technical issues using this website,
    since I experienced to reload the web site lots of times previous to
    I could get it to load properly. I had been wondering if
    your hosting is OK? Not that I am complaining, but slow loading instances times will sometimes affect
    your placement in google and could damage your high quality score if ads and marketing with Adwords.
    Well I am adding this RSS to my email and can look out for a lot more
    of your respective exciting content. Make sure you update this again very soon. https://azhydroxychloroquine.com/

  4. Sildenafil citrate and Cialis are besides used to
    cover pneumonic arterial high blood pressure (PAH) under the swap name calling Revatio (Viagra 20-mg tablets and 10-mg/12.5-mL single-purpose ampule
    injections) and Adcirca (Cialis 20-mg tablets).

    Although choice roles survive for these agents, PDE5 inhibitors for the treatment of ED are the concentrate of this
    follow-up. http://lm360.us/

  5. Do you have a spam issue on this site; I also am a blogger, and I was curious about your situation; many of us have created some nice methods and we are looking to trade solutions with other folks, please shoot me an e-mail if interested.|

  6. Pingback: essayhelpbgs.com
  7. Pingback: customer essay
  8. Pingback: viagra walmart
  9. Pingback: viagra price
  10. Pingback: viagra
  11. With havin so much content do you ever run into any problems of plagorism or copyright infringement? My blog has a lot of exclusive content I’ve either written myself or outsourced but it looks like a lot of it is popping it up all over the internet without my permission. Do you know any solutions to help prevent content from being ripped off? I’d certainly appreciate it.|

  12. Thank you for the sensible critique. Me & my neighbor were just preparing to do some research about this. We got a grab a book from our area library but I think I learned more from this post. I’m very glad to see such magnificent info being shared freely out there.

  13. Undeniably believe that which you said. Your favorite
    justification appeared to be on the internet the easiest thing to be aware of.

    I say to you, I certainly get annoyed while people consider worries that they just do not know about.

    You managed to hit the nail upon the top and defined out the whole thing without having side-effects , people can take a signal.
    Will probably be back to get more. Thanks https://www.wisig.org/

  14. I believe everything posted was very reasonable. However, consider this, what if you were to create a killer post title? I ain’t saying your content is not solid., however suppose you added a title that grabbed people’s attention? I mean %BLOG_TITLE% is kinda vanilla. You could look at Yahoo’s front page and see how they create article headlines to get viewers interested. You might add a video or a related pic or two to grab readers excited about what you’ve written. Just my opinion, it might make your website a little bit more interesting.|

  15. Hello very cool web site!! Guy .. Excellent .. Superb .. I will bookmark your web site and take the feeds also?KI am happy to seek out a lot of helpful info right here within the publish, we want work out more strategies in this regard, thank you for sharing. . . . . .

  16. Pingback: fzwdgfvz
  17. Fantastic items from you, man. I have have in mind your stuff prior to and you’re just too wonderful. I really like what you’ve received right here, certainly like what you’re saying and the way wherein you assert it. You are making it entertaining and you still take care of to stay it sensible. I can not wait to learn far more from you. This is really a wonderful website.

  18. Pingback: buy cialis
  19. Pingback: buy viagra
  20. Pingback: venta viagra
  21. Undeniably believe that which you stated. Your favorite justification appeared to be on the net the easiest thing to be aware of. I say to you, I certainly get annoyed while people think about worries that they just don’t know about. You managed to hit the nail upon the top and also defined out the whole thing without having side-effects , people can take a signal. Will probably be back to get more. Thanks

  22. I enjoy you because of each of your work on this website. My daughter really likes getting into research and it is easy to understand why. Most people notice all concerning the powerful mode you offer practical information through your blog and as well invigorate response from website visitors on that idea and our own simple princess has been discovering a lot. Take advantage of the remaining portion of the year. You have been conducting a glorious job.

  23. It’s really a nice and helpful piece of information. I am satisfied that you just shared this helpful information with us. Please stay us up to date like this. Thank you for sharing.

  24. Fascinating blog! Is your theme custom made or did you download it from somewhere? A design like yours with a few simple tweeks would really make my blog shine. Please let me know where you got your theme. Cheers

  25. I am extremely impressed with your writing skills and also with the layout on your weblog. Is this a paid theme or did you customize it yourself? Either way keep up the excellent quality writing, it’s rare to see a nice blog like this one these days..

  26. I was curious if you ever thought of changing the structure of your website? Its very well written; I love what youve got to say. But maybe you could a little more in the way of content so people could connect with it better. Youve got an awful lot of text for only having 1 or two images. Maybe you could space it out better?

  27. Hello there, just was alert to your blog through Google, and located that it’s truly informative. I’m going to watch out for brussels. I will be grateful when you proceed this in future. Numerous people will be benefited from your writing. Cheers!

  28. I¦ve been exploring for a little for any high-quality articles or blog posts in this sort of house . Exploring in Yahoo I at last stumbled upon this website. Reading this info So i¦m satisfied to express that I’ve a very good uncanny feeling I discovered just what I needed. I so much no doubt will make sure to do not fail to remember this website and give it a look regularly.

  29. I have been surfing on-line more than 3 hours as of late, yet I never found any fascinating article like yours. It’s pretty value enough for me. In my opinion, if all web owners and bloggers made good content material as you did, the web shall be much more useful than ever before. “When there is a lack of honor in government, the morals of the whole people are poisoned.” by Herbert Clark Hoover.

  30. After study a few of the blog posts on your website now, and I truly like your way of blogging. I bookmarked it to my bookmark website list and will be checking back soon. Pls check out my web site as well and let me know what you think.

  31. Pingback: ivermectin pills
  32. A powerful share, I just given this onto a colleague who was doing a little evaluation on this. And he in actual fact purchased me breakfast as a result of I discovered it for him.. smile. So let me reword that: Thnx for the treat! But yeah Thnkx for spending the time to discuss this, I really feel strongly about it and love reading extra on this topic. If doable, as you turn out to be expertise, would you mind updating your weblog with more particulars? It is highly helpful for me. Huge thumb up for this blog post!

  33. I’m extremely impressed along with your writing skills as neatly as with the structure to your weblog. Is that this a paid topic or did you modify it your self? Either way keep up the excellent high quality writing, it is uncommon to look a nice weblog like this one these days..

  34. Hey there I am so delighted I found your blog page, I really found you by accident, while I was looking on Google for something else, Regardless I am here now and would just like to say many thanks for a fantastic post and a all round enjoyable blog (I also love the theme/design), I don’t have time to go through it all at the moment but I have saved it and also added in your RSS feeds, so when I have time I will be back to read more, Please do keep up the awesome job.

  35. Hey very cool web site!! Man .. Excellent .. Amazing .. I will bookmark your website and take the feeds also…I’m happy to find numerous useful information here in the post, we need develop more strategies in this regard, thanks for sharing. . . . . .

  36. Great – I should certainly pronounce, impressed with your web site. I had no trouble navigating through all tabs and related info ended up being truly simple to do to access. I recently found what I hoped for before you know it in the least. Quite unusual. Is likely to appreciate it for those who add forums or anything, site theme . a tones way for your customer to communicate. Nice task..

  37. This is the correct blog for anybody who wants to search out out about this topic. You understand a lot its nearly onerous to argue with you (not that I truly would need…HaHa). You definitely put a new spin on a subject thats been written about for years. Great stuff, just nice!

  38. You really make it appear really easy together with your presentation however I in finding this topic to be actually something which I think I might by no means understand. It seems too complex and very large for me. I am taking a look forward in your subsequent submit, I¦ll attempt to get the cling of it!

  39. Pingback: synthroid dairy
  40. obviously like your web-site however you have to check the spelling on several of your posts. Several of them are rife with spelling issues and I to find it very bothersome to inform the reality on the other hand I¦ll definitely come back again.

  41. This blog is definitely rather handy since I’m at the moment creating an internet floral website – although I am only starting out therefore it’s really fairly small, nothing like this site. Can link to a few of the posts here as they are quite. Thanks much. Zoey Olsen

  42. Why would someone functioning clomiphene dosing? Clomid is an verbal medication that can be old to increase ovulation. It works close blocking estrogen receptors at the hypothalamus, which is an notable “hormonal check center” proper for the body. When this happens, the hypothalamus is stimulated to rescue follicle stimulating hormone (FSH).

  43. How soon to experience effects of ovulation pills for women men? With men, Clomid is usually taken concluded a number of days benefit of at least three months. It takes more time to see results, and you shouldn’t envision sharp fertility improvement. Treatment as per usual takes at least a month beforehand any changes in semen can be seen, and a utmost three months more willingly than pregnancy rates may boast improvement.

  44. I¦ve been exploring for a little for any high-quality articles or weblog posts on this kind of area . Exploring in Yahoo I finally stumbled upon this website. Reading this information So i am satisfied to express that I’ve a very just right uncanny feeling I found out just what I needed. I most indubitably will make sure to do not forget this website and give it a glance regularly.

  45. Great items from you, man. I’ve be aware your stuff previous to and you are just extremely magnificent. I actually like what you have obtained here, really like what you are saying and the best way through which you are saying it. You’re making it entertaining and you continue to take care of to stay it sensible. I cant wait to learn much more from you. That is really a terrific website.

  46. Fantastic beat ! I would like to apprentice while you amend your web site, how can i subscribe for a blog web site? The account aided me a acceptable deal. I had been a little bit acquainted of this your broadcast provided bright clear idea

  47. of course like your web site however you have to take a look at the spelling on several of your posts. Many of them are rife with spelling problems and I to find it very bothersome to inform the reality then again I will surely come back again.

  48. I have been surfing online greater than three hours nowadays, yet I never discovered any fascinating article like yours. It is pretty price sufficient for me. In my view, if all site owners and bloggers made good content material as you did, the net will be a lot more useful than ever before.

  49. I was curious if you ever thought of changing the structure of your site? Its very well written; I love what youve got to say. But maybe you could a little more in the way of content so people could connect with it better. Youve got an awful lot of text for only having one or 2 images. Maybe you could space it out better?

  50. How Much Is viagra without seeing doctor with GoodRx. Generic sildenafil is covered by most Medicare and insurance plans, but some pharmacopoeia coupons or loot prices may be lower. The lowest GoodRx price with a view the most garden-variety adaptation of sildenafil is there $7.99, 95% quiet the as a rule retail worth of $193.49. Compare PDE5 viagra without a doctors approval viagra without a doctor prescription.

  51. Hello would you mind letting me know which web host you’re utilizing? I’ve loaded your blog in 3 completely different web browsers and I must say this blog loads a lot faster then most. Can you recommend a good web hosting provider at a fair price? Many thanks, I appreciate it!

  52. Pingback: wiki propecia
  53. Its like you read my mind! You seem to know so much about this, like you wrote the book in it or something. I think that you can do with some pics to drive the message home a little bit, but other than that, this is fantastic blog. A fantastic read. I will certainly be back.

  54. Somebody necessarily assist to make significantly articles I’d state. This is the first time I frequented your website page and to this point? I amazed with the analysis you made to make this particular publish extraordinary. Excellent job!

  55. Pingback: paxil alcohol
  56. Pingback: plaquenil wiki
  57. Youre so cool! I dont suppose Ive read something like this before. So good to seek out anyone with some unique ideas on this subject. realy thank you for starting this up. this web site is one thing that is needed on the internet, someone with a bit originality. useful job for bringing something new to the internet!

  58. Please let me know if you’re looking for a writer for your blog. You have some really good articles and I believe I would be a good asset. If you ever want to take some of the load off, I’d love to write some content for your blog in exchange for a link back to mine. Please send me an e-mail if interested. Regards!

  59. Howdy! Quick question that’s entirely off topic. Do you know how to make your site mobile friendly? My website looks weird when browsing from my apple iphone. I’m trying to find a template or plugin that might be able to fix this problem. If you have any recommendations, please share. Thank you!

  60. I precisely wished to thank you so much again. I am not sure what I would have followed without those points revealed by you over my problem. It has been an absolute hard concern in my opinion, nevertheless seeing your expert way you treated the issue took me to cry for joy. Now i am happier for your information and thus pray you know what a powerful job you were carrying out training the rest all through your webblog. I’m certain you haven’t encountered all of us.

  61. Have you ever considered creating an ebook or guest authoring on other blogs? I have a blog based on the same ideas you discuss and would really like to have you share some stories/information. I know my visitors would enjoy your work. If you’re even remotely interested, feel free to shoot me an email.

  62. I’m really enjoying the theme/design of your blog. Do you ever run into any browser compatibility problems? A small number of my blog visitors have complained about my blog not operating correctly in Explorer but looks great in Chrome. Do you have any solutions to help fix this problem?

  63. I would like to thank you for the efforts you’ve put in writing this blog. I’m hoping the same high-grade website post from you in the upcoming also. In fact your creative writing abilities has inspired me to get my own blog now. Really the blogging is spreading its wings fast. Your write up is a good example of it.

  64. I simply wished to say thanks again. I’m not certain the things I would’ve taken care of in the absence of those advice documented by you relating to such a area. Entirely was a frightening circumstance in my view, however , coming across your skilled approach you handled that made me to jump with joy. Now i’m happy for the information as well as pray you know what a powerful job you were getting into instructing the mediocre ones using a site. Most likely you haven’t met all of us.

  65. I have not checked in here for some time because I thought it was getting boring, but the last few posts are good quality so I guess I will add you back to my everyday bloglist. You deserve it my friend 🙂

  66. Undeniably believe that which you said. Your favorite justification seemed to be on the web the simplest thing to be aware of. I say to you, I definitely get annoyed while people consider worries that they plainly don’t know about. You managed to hit the nail upon the top and defined out the whole thing without having side effect , people can take a signal. Will likely be back to get more. Thanks

Deja una respuesta

Tu dirección de correo electrónico no será publicada. Los campos obligatorios están marcados con *

Siguiente nota

CIO y trabajo remoto

Lun Mar 23 , 2020
• Por Carlos Rozen • Socio/Partner en BDO Argentina  Las recomendaciones del Gobierno en plena crisis sanitaria han obligado a muchas empresas a enviar a sus empleados a casa y a implantar el teletrabajo. La responsabilidad de la medida recae principalmente sobre el CIO, el máximo responsable del funcionamiento de los […]

Pandemia de pánico económico: Cuáles serán las consecuencias según los principales economistas

tiempo de lectura: 6 min