Pandemia de pánico económico: Cuáles serán las consecuencias según los principales economistas

Coronavirus: “Estamos muy cerca de una recesión global” por el rápido avance de la pandemia

Derechos de autor de la imagen GETTY IMAGESEconomistas entrevistados  coinciden en que estamos “muy cerca de una recesión global”.

La rápida propagación del coronavirus, ahora convertido en pandemia, está provocando pánico en los mercados financieros, fuga de capitales, devaluación de las monedas frente al dólar y una creciente amenaza de recesión global.

Aunque en un principio la situación parecía estar confinada a los países asiáticos, el escenario actual es completamente distinto: el brote está presente en al menos 114 países, ha contagiado a cerca de 120.000 personas y ha dejado más de 4.200 víctimas fatales.

A la decisión de Italia de poner a todo el país en cuarentena -además de una rápida propagación de la enfermedad en el resto de Europa y Estados Unidos- se suma el desplome de los precios de petróleo y la montaña rusa de las bolsas, haciendo que muchos expertos consideren que una recesión económica global durante el primer semestre de este año sea casi inminente.

Jeffrey Frankel, profesor de la Escuela Harvard Kennedy, de la Universidad de Harvard, le dice a BBC Mundo que la posibilidad de una contracción económica “parece haber aumentado dramáticamente”.

“Estamos muy cerca de una recesión global”, advierte.

Una voz de alerta que ha comenzado a extenderse entre la mayor parte de los economistas e inversores, especialmente ahora que los casos de contagiados están aumentando velozmente.

Este miércoles Wall Street se hundió en un “mercado bajista” (bear market, en inglés), luego de que el índice Dow Jones terminara un 20% más bajo en relación a su récord alcista de febrero, poniendo fin al período más largo de alzas en los mercados bursátiles en la historia de Estados Unidos.

El desplome bursátil se produjo después de que la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) anunciara que el coronavirus es oficialmente una “pandemia”.

Piazarra en Wall StreetDerechos de autor de la imagenGETTY IMAGESWall Street se convirtió el miércoles en un “mercado bajista” o “bear market”.

En el día a día, el temor al contagio y las medidas de aislamiento tomadas en algunos países, han golpeado duramente al sector turístico, con aerolíneas reportando inéditas pérdidas financieras que las han llevado a cerrar rutas aéreas o a operar vuelos “fantasma” casi sin pasajeros.

Entre las medidas más drásticas, Estados Unidos anunció el miércoles la suspensión de “todos los viajes desde Europa” hacia su país por 30 días.

Además, muchas empresas les han pedido a sus empleados que trabajen desde casa, mientras que el cierre de fábricas en China y en otros lugares, han causado problemas en las cadenas globales de producción.

En este escenario las empresas se están preparando para informar resultados en rojo, y si el crecimiento económico se estanca -con descenso en las inversiones y menos consumo en los hogares- los efectos económicos de la pandemia podrían generar un aumento en el desempleo y estancamiento en los salarios.

¿El peor de los escenarios?

El coronavirus amenaza con paralizar el crecimiento global“, le dice a BBC Mundo Tom Orlik, economista jefe de Bloomberg Economics.

Hace un mes, el escenario más probable parecía un brote importante limitado a China y otros países que sufren efectos relativamente menores. Eso ahora se ve demasiado optimista“, agrega.

Avión en vueloDerechos de autor de la imagen GETTY IMAGESLas aerolíneas podrían perder hasta US$113.000 millones en ingresos este año.

Las posibilidades de que se produzca el peor de los escenarios, con las principales economías sufriendo un impacto significativo, aumentan día a día“.

 

En ese caso, el costo global podría llegar a los US$ 2,7 billones, si todos los países se ven expuestos a las consecuencias de la pandemia.

Y si la economía estadounidense se contrae, plantea Orlik, la dinámica de las elecciones presidenciales también podría verse afectada.

Rohan Williamson, profesor de finanzas de la Escuela de Negocios McDonough, de la Universidad de Georgetown, Washington DC, también cree que estamos cerca de una recesión global. Los efectos del coronavirus y la volatilidad en los mercados bursátiles mundiales son indicadores que preocupan a los inversores, comenta. “Claramente ha habido un shock en la demanda global que provoca un gran impacto“, explica Williamson.

¿Y América Latina?

Marcos Casarin, economista jefe para América Latina de la consultora británica Oxford Economics, proyecta que la contracción económica generalizada se dejará caer en el primer trimestre y será de “corta duración”.

Desde esa perspectiva, Casarin dice que dadas las circunstancias, “estamos muy cerca de una recesión global“, aunque el principal signo de interrogación es qué pasará con la recuperación que debería llegar en el segundo trimestre.

Pasajeros máscarasGETTY IMAGESLos inversores prefieren refugiar sus capitales en el dólar en la medida que el brote se propaga y aumentan los temores sobre el crecimiento económico global.

Todo dependerá de cuántos bloqueos de emergencia se impongan más allá de marzo“.

En el caso de América Latina, explica, estamos frente a un cóctel preocupante. “La combinación entre caída del precio del petróleo, desplome de las monedas y coronavirus, es definitivamente negativa para el crecimiento“, apunta el economista.

Reales brasileñosGETTY IMAGESBrasil, Chile y Colombia están entre los países más afectados por la devaluación de sus monedas en 2020.

Y los países que ya están en recesión (como Argentina, por ejemplo) “verán una recesión más profunda”, mientras que los que están al borde de una, como es el caso de México“se verán arrastrados a una recesión”.

Sobre cómo se puede enfrentar la crisis en la región, Casarin dice que la mayoría de los gobiernos prácticamente no tiene espacio para relajar la política fiscal, es decir, bajar las tasas de interés, reduciendo el costo del crédito.

“Lo peor aún está por venir”

Aunque las proyecciones varían, existe una especie de consenso entre los analistas financieros de que el panorama debería mejorar en la segunda mitad del año. Sin embargo, muchos advierten que el impacto económico no ha tocado fondo, en la medida que el virus sigue propagándose aceleradamente.

Lo peor para la economía aún está por venir en los próximos meses“, escribió Joachim Fels en una nota a sus clientes, asesor económico global de PIMCO (Pacific Investment Management Company), una firma que maneja fondos de inversión a gran escala.

Flecha en caídaGETTY IMAGESEl coronavirus amenaza con paralizar el crecimiento global“, advirtió Tom Orlik, economista jefe de Bloomberg Economics.

Mientras que Jan Hatzius, economista jefe del banco de inversión Goldman Sachs, le informó a sus clientes que la duración y la profundidad de la contracción económica dependen de las medidas que tomen los gobiernos. Habrá que ver “si las autoridades de salud pueden retrasar materialmente la propagación del virus a través de un aumento en las pruebas, restricciones en las reuniones masivas y cuarentenas de personas infectadas”.

Neil Shearing, economista jefe de la firma de análisis Capital Economics, advirtió que si las condiciones empeoran, se aproxima una “recesión aguda, pero probablemente corta“.

Y agregó que a medida que el virus se propaga, hay una buena posibilidad de que el escenario más negativo de las proyecciones económicas, se convierta en el más probable.

Organismos internacionales también han hecho proyecciones barajando distintos escenarios, según el ritmo de propagación del virus.

En el peor de los casos, el crecimiento económico mundial podría descender a la mitad de lo que se había proyectado (bajando incluso hasta 1,5%), según la Organización para la Cooperación y Desarrollo Económico (OCDE).

Y la Conferencia de las Naciones Unidas para el Comercio y el Desarrollo (UNCTAD) esta semana alertó que el costo de la crisis en el ingreso global podría llegar a US$ 2 billones, y que la duración y la profundidad de la crisis dependerán de tres cosas: cuán lejos y cuán rápido se propagará el virus, cuánto tiempo pasará antes de que se encuentre una vacuna y qué tan efectivos serán los gobiernos para mitigar el daño.

Prensa Económica

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