“Existe una recuperación mes a mes, pero comparado con 2018 todavía es caída”

Por segundo mes consecutivo, el Informe Económico Mensual -que elabora el Área de Economía del IAE Business School de la Universidad Austral a cargo de Eduardo Luis Fracchia destaca la recuperación de la actividad económica durante el primer tramo del año que, según el estimador mensual de actividad, acumula un crecimiento del 0,8% durante el primer bimestre del año.


Sin embargo, los especialistas advierten que la estabilización de precios y el tipo de cambio es condición necesaria para sostener la recuperación. En ese sentido, el análisis remarca el acuerdo del Banco Central con el Fondo Monetario Internacional para ampliar su capacidad de intervención en el mercado de cambios, aún estando dentro de la zona de flotación.
Otro de los puntos que marcan “el único mecanismo genuino de ingresos de divisas” es la reversión hacia un sendero superavitario del sector externo: durante el primer trimestre de 2019, el desempeño del comercio argentino continúa en el plano positivo tras un 2018 principalmente deficitario.

El Área de Economía del IAE Business School de la Universidad Austral, a cargo de Eduardo Luis Fracchia, elabora el Informe Económico Mensual. Entre otras consideraciones, el análisis destaca:

PRECIOS y SALARIOS

La continuación del elevado nivel mensual de inflación genera incertidumbre acerca de la eficacia del programa económico de estabilización. Respecto a la última medición del INDEC, el índice de precios nacional (IPC Nacional) de marzo presentó una variación intermensual positiva de 4,7%. Mientras que en términos interanuales, se registró una variación positiva del orden del 54,7%.

  • Se espera que el programa Precios Esenciales sea un instrumento de corto plazo a los efectos de estabilizar los precios de un grupo específico de bienes de la canasta de consumo (64 productos). Si el acuerdo se sostiene, se pueden estabilizar expectativas y suspender aumentos en un período muy limitado de tiempo.
  • Los efectos desinflacionarios, que posiblemente se esperaban por el contexto recesivo, aún no son evidentes dado el regreso de las tensiones cambiarias durante la segunda parte de abril. Es probable que los efectos de esas tensiones se trasladen al índice de mayo, a través del componente inercial de los precios.
  • La pérdida del poder de compra de los salarios y de los ingresos de trabajadores no asalariados, dado el ajuste de los precios, explica el crecimiento notorio de la indigencia y la pobreza. En ese sentido, en la segunda mitad de 2018 el 23,4% de los hogares se encontraba en la pobreza, esto comprende al 32% de la población.

ACTIVIDAD ECONÓMICA

  • Las proyecciones de crecimiento del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) continúan siendo negativas. El promedio de las consultoras privadas, relevado por el Banco Central, estima una caída de 1,3% para este año.
  • En términos mensuales, la actividad comienza a recuperarse, aunque con niveles bajos. El estimador mensual de actividad (EMAE) acumula un crecimiento durante el primer bimestre del año de 0,8%. La estabilización de precios y el tipo de cambio es condición necesaria para sostener la recuperación.
  • La actividad económica se sostiene en un sendero recesivo en la comparación interanual. Las proyecciones del promedio de las consultoras privadas estiman que el PIB se contraerá en 1,3% pese a que la frecuencia mensual nota una recuperación del índice.

El regreso de las tensiones cambiarias establece un alto nivel de incertidumbre sobre el nivel de actividad futuro, que afecta las decisiones sobre proyectos de inversión.

  • El sostenimiento de la recuperación mensual de la actividad se deberá gestionar en el marco de un nivel menor de incertidumbre que apuntale las decisiones de inversión a lo largo de la estructura productiva.

El desempeño de la industria manufacturera de marzo, medido por el Índice de Producción Manufacturero (IPI) del INDEC, resultó en una baja de 13,4% respecto al mismo mes de 2018.

  • La producción de la industria PyME evidencia cierta recuperación mensual. El índice de producción industrial publicado por la Confederación Argentina de la Mediana Empresa (CAME) subió 12,1% en marzo de 2019 respecto al mes anterior.
  • El sector agrícola registró un desempeño positivo en relación en relación a la inversión productiva. Las ventas de máquinas crecieron 62,5% durante el primer trimestre de 2019 respecto al mismo período de 2018.

SECTOR FISCAL

  • El superávit fiscal se sostuvo durante el primer trimestre del año. La gestión fiscal evidencia resultados positivos en el cumplimiento de las metas de déficit cero.
  • El déficit financiero registró un crecimiento del 25,4% durante el primer trimestre del año. Las erogaciones por intereses aumentaron sustancialmente en 106% respecto a 2018.
  • En aras de recuperar el ingreso disponible y la demanda agregada, el gobierno estableció para las Pymes un acuerdo de precios, un freno a la suba de tarifas, una línea de crédito desde la Administración de la Seguridad Social y facilidades de pagos de la AFIP.
  • La disminución del déficit fiscal primario de marzo de 2019 se explica por el mayor crecimiento interanual de los ingresos (39,8%) y por un menor crecimiento interanual, en promedio, de los gastos corrientes (30,9%).

El resultado primario mensual de marzo totalizó -$13.037 millones registrando una disminución interanual de 11,3%.

  • Respecto al resultado financiero, las mayores erogaciones en concepto de intereses de 58,7% en marzo 2018 determinaron el aumento del resultado negativo del 31,5%.
  • Se espera un nuevo desembolso durante mayo de US$ 5.500 millones correspondiente a la línea de crédito Stand By. Desde el organismo, se insiste con la necesidad de mayores ingresos fiscales para arribar al equilibrio fiscal acordado.

SECTOR EXTERNO

  • El superávit comercial se sostiene en el primer trimestre del año. La marcada disminución interanual de las importaciones explica el desempeño comercial. El superávit se sostiene por séptimo mes consecutivo. Durante marzo el saldo positivo fue de US$ 1.183 millones. El resultado es explicado principalmente por disminución interanual de las importaciones en 33,7%.
  • El tipo de cambio real se depreció un 0,8% promedio mensual en abril 2019 (base 2001=100). El nivel actual del TCR se ubica por debajo del promedio de toda la serie revirtiendo la tendencia del año 2018.
  • Las tensiones comerciales entre Estados Unidos y China se profundizaron luego de la decisión de la gestión Trump en relación al aumento de las imposiciones a los bienes importados desde China.

El primer trimestre de 2019, el desempeño del comercio argentino continúa en el plano positivo luego de un año principalmente deficitario. Las exportaciones totalizaron US$ 14.186 millones (-2,3% interanual) mientras que las importaciones ascendieron a US$ 12.171 millones (-27,9% interanual).

  • La reversión hacia un sendero superavitario del sector externo, lo que en principio se traduce como un relajamiento de la restricción externa de la economía argentina, es un factor importante, pues es el único mecanismo genuino de ingresos de divisas.
  • En términos interanuales, las ventas al exterior durante marzo disminuyeron un 5%, y las compras al exterior disminuyeron marcadamente en 33,7%. Si se observa las variaciones en términos desestacionalizados, las exportaciones crecieron 0,7% (US$ 672 millones en valores nominales) respecto a febrero de 2019. Mientras que las importaciones disminuyeron 11,2% respecto a dicho mes (US$ 51 millones en valores nominales).

SECTOR MONETARIO Y FINANCIERO

  • Se estableció un nuevo marco en la política cambiaria a los efectos de minimizar las tensiones del tipo de cambio. Tras las fuertes tensiones del mes, el Banco Central podrá intervenir por debajo del techo de la zona de no intervención.
  • El dólar promedio nominal minorista del mes de abril se situó en 44,22 pesos y cerró 45,4. El tipo de cambio registró una depreciación mensual de 3,4%.
  • El Banco Central sostiene su política de restricción cuantitativa y de aumentos de tasa de interés en el marco del objetivo de estabilización de la inflación y de tipo de cambio, luego de las fuertes tensiones cambiarias observadas durante el mes.
  • La autoridad monetaria, en acuerdo con el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), amplió su capacidad de intervención en el mercado de cambios aún estando dentro de la zona de flotación.
  • El nivel de reservas de cierre del mes de abril fue de US$ 71.663 millones acumulando un aumento de US$ 407 millones respecto a diciembre de 2018.
  • El tipo de cambio nominal minorista se depreció durante marzo un 3,4% estableciéndose en promedio de los $ 44 por dólar.

La continuidad de las tensiones cambiarias convalidó la prudencia del Banco Central respecto a los niveles de tasa de interés de referencia. El alto nivel de tasas de las LELIQ se sostuvo. Al cierre de abril se ubicó en 73,93% luego del cierre de marzo en 68,14%.

  • El riesgo país medido por el EMBI+Arg cerró en 950 p.b. en abril, situándose en niveles superiores al mes precedente luego de la volatilidad cambiaria e incertidumbre sobre el cumplimiento de obligaciones financieros futuras.

Prensa Económica

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