El ex secretario de Hacienda, Manuel Solanet, aseguró que tras la aprobación del directorio del FMI del acuerdo stand by con Argentina, el Gobierno debería encarar una gran reducción del gasto público que permita tener superávit primario en 2019.
–¿El acuerdo que aprobó el directorio del FMI es una oportunidad para ordenar la situación del país realmente?
-Bueno, más que una oportunidad yo creo que es un puente para tratar de un problema grande, ¿no? Ojalá esto nos sirva para eso y que tengamos en 2020 una mayor tranquilidad. Lo cierto es que los mercados han reaccionado bien, se disipa el riesgo de un default a corto plazo, de manera estamos con más tranquilidad. Pero lo que yo quiero remarcar es que hay que aprovechar estos dos años que tenemos por delante para hacer las correcciones estructurales.
-¿No se hizo nada?
-Lo que se ha logrado ahora con la devaluación es, en términos reales, que los salarios y las jubilaciones del sector público se retrasen y eso permita recuperar en alguna medida el tema fiscal. También la fuerte devaluación comenzó a revertir el panorama de la balanza comercial. Eso es bueno, pero una vez que termine esos efectos de la devaluación, si estamos con un gasto físico que no ha caído sensiblemente vamos a volver a tener problemas.
–¿Cuánto debería bajar el gasto público para que haya cuenta sólidas?
-Nuestra Fundación Libertad y Progreso ha hecho un ejercicio e hizo una propuesta de reducir seis puntos el gasto para tener en el año 2020 un déficit financiero cero, es decir, tener un superávit primario que cubra los intereses de la deuda pública. Esos seis puntos del PBI son realizables. Por supuesto hay que trabajar con intensidad, pero son realistas.
–¿Cómo evalúan las últimas medidas que se adoptaron?
-Yo creo que están bien orientadas. Por lo pronto la corrección de la meta de déficit ha sido positiva. Antes teníamos todavía para el próximo año teníamos un déficit primario de 1,3% del PBI y ahora estamos en cero. Ahora hay cosas que a mí no me gustan.
–¿Por ejemplo?
-Que se haya apelado más a impuestos que a la reducción de gastos. Impuesto a los Bienes Personales, que se venía reduciendo y ahora está en una escala que no se reduce. Eso es incumplir una promesa y esas cosas se pagan, porque se genera incertidumbre hacia futuro porque se cambian las normas tributarias y en eso la inversión se retrae.
–¿No cree que el populismo que sigue existiendo en un vasto sector de la dirigencia y de la sociedad no es un freno para promover una reducción del gasto como piden ustedes?
-El tema aquí es que el gasto público creció de 30 puntos a 46 puntos del PBI en los doce años de la gestión kirchnerista. No es una cosa de siglos, de una década practicamente. ¿Cómo no se va a poder reducir seis puntos si creció 16 puntos? Entonces, hay que entender que el cuello de botella en la situación argentina es el panorama fiscal. Ese es el problema central.
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