“El futuro está condicionado a la responsabilidad de los políticos”

  Quienes apostaron a las promesas, perdieron y mucho. Ahora, exigirán ver para creer. En tanto la dirigencia política, oficialismo y oposición, actúen con responsabilidad, algunos capitales volverán, alimentando el crédito interno. Por ALDO ABRAM, economista y director ejecutivo de la Fundación Libertad y Progreso   Para saber lo que […]

 

Quienes apostaron a las promesas, perdieron y mucho. Ahora, exigirán ver para creer. En tanto la dirigencia política, oficialismo y oposición, actúen con responsabilidad, algunos capitales volverán, alimentando el crédito interno.

Por ALDO ABRAM, economista y director ejecutivo de la Fundación Libertad y Progreso

 

Para saber lo que nos espera a los argentinos, hay que entender cómo llegamos a una corrida cambiaria que derivó en un corte del crédito para el gobierno y, por ende, en un acuerdo con el FMI.

Sin dudas, el primer motivo es el fracaso del “gradualismo” en el ordenamiento de las cuentas públicas, que se fundaba en un escenario sumamente optimista de un mundo siempre generoso con la liquidez.
Lo más grave es que todos los pronósticos coincidían que, a partir de este año, las condiciones de financiamiento internacional serían menos fluidas; pero, aun así, se optó por avanzar lentamente en la reforma del Estado.

Si bien lo anterior fue el origen del problema, las moderadas turbulencias internacionales de 2018 encontraron un Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA) que había perdido toda credibilidad y algo menos insolvente de lo que lo encontró este gobierno. Lamentablemente, la anterior gestión del BCRA perdió la oportunidad de regenerar la confianza de la gente en el peso y en esa institución. En vez de priorizar la baja de la inflación y cumplir las metas que se habían fijado, decidió poner por delante el licuar los problemas que generaba un Estado excesivo. No sólamente financiándolo, sino por ejemplo emitiendo para bajar las tasas de interés y aumentar el escaso crédito interno. Es que el sector público, en sus tres niveles (municipal, provincial y naciónal), lo absorbía en gran medida para financiar su enorme déficit, dejando poco y caro para el sector privado.

LOS ERRORES DEL BCRA

Con una política monetaria tan expansiva desde principios de 2016, no es de extrañar que el peso se depreciase fuertemente y, si bien con alguna tendencia a la baja, la inflación estuviera lejos de las metas fijadas. Por otro lado, el error de confundir atraso cambiario con “dólar barato” por la inundación de divisas provenientes de deuda pública llevó a festejar las alzas del tipo cambio que generaron las corridas contra la moneda local. Por lo tanto, el BCRA no intervenía o se demoraba demasiado en defender su valor con la consecuente depreciación del peso, que se reflejaba primero en el valor local del dólar, pero luego  en los precios locales.

No es raro que la salida de capitales incentivada por la aplicación de un impuesto a las rentas financieras de los extranjeros y por las turbulencias internacionales se transformara en una fuerte corrida cambiaria. El BCRA tuvo que enfrentarla sin credibilidad y, encima, la gestionó muy mal. El resultado fue una enorme merma del valor del peso y el cierre de los mercados financieros internacionales asustados por tamaño desastre.

A partir de allí, cabe tener en cuenta que la alternativa al FMI era una crisis económica, por lo menos, de los niveles de la del 2002 que acomodara el exceso de gasto público a la realidad de no contar con crédito. Ahora, estamos metidos en una recesión cuyo origen primario fue el impacto en el agro de la sequía; pero que suma ahora el desfinanciamiento de la demanda interna por una gran fuga de capitales y una merma de la propensión a consumir e invertir, producto de la enorme incertidumbre. El acuerdo con el FMI ha resuelto parcialmente el problema financiero del gobierno nacional; pero todavía persiste el desfinanciamiento del sector privado, los estados provinciales y los municipales.

BAJAR LA TASA SERÍA FUNESTO

¿Cómo se sale de esto? La peor de las soluciones es la que proponen algunos políticos y economistas, que el BCRA baje la tasa de interés. Es no tener en cuenta que es alta porque hubo una contracción del crédito interno por la salida de capitales. La única forma en que podría bajarla es emitiendo; lo que se transformaría en una nueva escalada local del dólar y otra corrida cambiaria que va a ser muy difícil de frenar. El nuevo impulso que dará a la fuga de capitales llevará a una peor contracción del financiamiento y, por ende, a mayor recesión.

¿Entonces? Preguntémonos qué nos llevó hasta acá. Un BCRA que no priorizó la estabilidad monetaria y perdió toda confianza en su gestión. Sin una moneda estable es imposible pensar en ninguna salida de la actual situación. Por lo tanto, está bien mantener la estabilidad del peso como hizo hasta ahora su actual conducción, porque es la base para recuperar la credibilidad y, por ende, el crédito para el país. Lo otro es que el gobierno dé señales contundentes de que el ajuste del Estado va en serio.

Ya no basta con promesas; porque la gente que apostó a las de los últimos dos años perdió y mucho. Ahora, exigirán ver para creer. En la medida en que la dirigencia política, oficialismo y oposición, actúen en consecuencia, veremos que algunos capitales vuelven y los dólares se transforman en pesos alimentando el crédito interno. Además, la preferencia por consumir e invertir volverá a crecer y colaborará con el sector agropecuario, buen clima mediante, a ir sacando al país de la recesión.

Nuestras estimaciones están fundadas en este escenario que, hoy, no deja de ser optimista; ya que tanto el gobierno como la oposición parecen no haber hecho el mejor diagnóstico de la situación. Siguen confiando en que pueden seguir jugando a la política en medio de la tormenta.

ESTIMACIONES 2018/2019

2018 2019
        PBI (Var % anual) -0,5% – 0,5% 1% -1,5%
        Déficit primario (% del PBI) 2,6% 1,5%
        Consumo (Var % anual) 0,4% – 0,9% 0,8% -1,3%
        Inflación (Var % anual) 30,5% -31,5% 20% – 21%
        Inversión (Var % anual) 7% 1% – 1,5%
        Tipo de cambio ($/USD fin de año) $30 – $32 $36 – $38
        Exportaciones (MM de USD) 61.000 62.000
        Importaciones (MM de USD) 69.000 68.500
        Saldo Comercial (MM de USD) -8.000 -6.500
        Reservas int. (MM de USD) 62.000 61.000
        Desocupación (% p. activa) 7,5 7,6

FUENTE: Fundación Libertad y Progreso

 

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Mié Sep 5 , 2018

“El futuro está condicionado a la responsabilidad de los políticos”

tiempo de lectura: 4 min