El proyecto de Presupuesto del Gobierno para 2019 que presentó el gobierno ante Diputados, fue un resumen de auspicios poco alentadores como la caída del PBI en 0,5%, o un dólar a $ 40,10. La inflación, al menos, será menor a la de este año (23% contra 34%).
El ministro de Hacienda, Nicolás Dujovne, se tomó una pequeña pausa en sus febriles negociaciones con los gobernadores -para llegar a un acuerdo sobre el ajuste requerido en el acuerdo con el FMI- y presentó en Diputados el proyecto de presupuesto 2019.
El funcionario destacó que este será el primer presupuesto con equilibrio fiscal primario, “al menos en diez años”, e indicó que el esfuerzo fiscal para llevar el rojo del 2,6% del PBI actual a cero, será repartido en partes iguales entre ingresos y gastos.
Los números clave de 2019
Para el Gobierno de Macri y más específicamente su ministro de Hacienda, estos son los números clave que proyectan para definir el presupuesto del próximo año.
- Dólar 2019: Baja del 8%. Precio: $ 40,10
- Inflación: 23%
- PBI: – 0,5% (– 2,4% para 2018)
- Exportaciones: Aumento exponencial (21% interanual) por rebote de exportaciones agrícolas, mejora de exportaciones energéticas (Vaca Muerta), recuperación de exportaciones manufactureras de origen industrial, mejora en el tipo de cambio real y aceleración de Brasil.
- Consumo privado: – 1,6%. Si bien se recuperará, no compensará el rojo de los últimos meses de 2018.
- Inversión privada: – 9,7%
- Consumo público: -3,4% (equilibrio fiscal)
- Importaciones: +2,8%.
- Déficit de Cuenta Corriente: Menos del 50% de lo proyectado para este año (U$S 22.400 millones), alcanzará U$S 9.900 millones (2,2% del PBI), “gracias a una mejor percepción internacional”, según Dujovne.
- Recaudación de impuestos/seguridad social: $ 4.829.033 billones (+ 38,9%) (26,2% PBI)-> Se explica por establecimiento transitorio de Derechos de Exportación.
- Deuda pública: A fin de año representará 87% del PBI (U$S 315.698 millones), 29,9% más que en 2017.
- Deuda neta: + 22,6 puntos (+52,0%)
- Obra pública: Incremento del 4,4% (4,2% del PBI), principalmente proyectos de inversión público-privada (PPP).
- Gasto Primario: + 24%
- Inversión Social: + 32% (seguridad social, +35%; salud +29%; vacunas y remedios, +94%; asistencia social, +29%; programas de compras de alimentos, +60%).
- Educación Pública: Transferencias a universidades: + 39%
- Inversión en Ciencia y Técnica: + 28%.
- Jubilaciones, pensiones contributivas y AUH: En 2018, representará casi 1% del PBI superior a 2015. En 2019 aumentará 0,2 % del PBI (llegando a 10,1% del PBI).
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