Presupuesto 2019: ¿Mayor austeridad o gasto sin crecimiento?

El proyecto de Presupuesto del Gobierno para 2019 que presentó el gobierno ante Diputados, fue un resumen de auspicios poco alentadores como la caída del PBI en 0,5%, o un dólar a $ 40,10. La inflación, al menos, será menor a la de este año (23% contra 34%). El ministro […]


El proyecto de Presupuesto del Gobierno para 2019 que presentó el gobierno ante Diputados, fue un resumen de auspicios poco alentadores como la caída del PBI en 0,5%, o un dólar a $ 40,10. La inflación, al menos, será menor a la de este año (23% contra 34%).

El ministro de Hacienda, Nicolás Dujovne, se tomó una pequeña pausa en sus febriles negociaciones con los gobernadores -para llegar a un acuerdo sobre el ajuste requerido en el acuerdo con el FMI- y presentó en Diputados el proyecto de presupuesto 2019.

El funcionario destacó que este será el primer presupuesto con equilibrio fiscal primario, “al menos en diez años”, e indicó que el esfuerzo fiscal para llevar el rojo del 2,6% del PBI actual a cero, será repartido en partes iguales entre ingresos y gastos.

Los números clave de 2019

Para el Gobierno de Macri y más específicamente su ministro de Hacienda, estos son los números clave que proyectan para definir el presupuesto del próximo año.

  • Dólar 2019: Baja del 8%. Precio: $ 40,10
  • Inflación: 23%
  • PBI: – 0,5% (– 2,4% para 2018)
  • Exportaciones: Aumento exponencial (21% interanual) por rebote de exportaciones agrícolas, mejora de exportaciones energéticas (Vaca Muerta), recuperación de exportaciones manufactureras de origen industrial, mejora en el tipo de cambio real y aceleración de Brasil.
  • Consumo privado: – 1,6%. Si bien se recuperará, no compensará el rojo de los últimos meses de 2018.
  • Inversión privada: – 9,7%
  • Consumo público: -3,4% (equilibrio fiscal)
  • Importaciones: +2,8%.
  • Déficit de Cuenta Corriente: Menos del 50% de lo proyectado para este año (U$S 22.400 millones), alcanzará U$S 9.900 millones (2,2% del PBI), “gracias a una mejor percepción internacional”, según Dujovne.
  • Recaudación de impuestos/seguridad social: $ 4.829.033 billones (+ 38,9%) (26,2% PBI)-> Se explica por establecimiento transitorio de Derechos de Exportación.
  • Deuda pública: A fin de año representará 87% del PBI (U$S 315.698 millones), 29,9% más que en 2017.
  • Deuda neta: + 22,6 puntos (+52,0%)
  • Obra pública: Incremento del 4,4% (4,2% del PBI), principalmente proyectos de inversión público-privada (PPP).
  • Gasto Primario: + 24%
  • Inversión Social: + 32% (seguridad social, +35%; salud +29%; vacunas y remedios, +94%; asistencia social, +29%; programas de compras de alimentos, +60%).
  • Educación Pública: Transferencias a universidades: + 39%
  • Inversión en Ciencia y Técnica: + 28%.
  • Jubilaciones, pensiones contributivas y AUH: En 2018, representará casi 1% del PBI superior a 2015. En 2019 aumentará 0,2 % del PBI (llegando a 10,1% del PBI).

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Presupuesto 2019: ¿Mayor austeridad o gasto sin crecimiento?

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