Peso argentino: el más devaluado entre los emergentes

En un contexto de enfrentamiento económico entre China y EEUU, el efecto global ha sido la aversión al riesgo por parte de los fondos de inversión a los países emergentes, volviendo a la tranquilidad del súper-dólar. Pero porqué el impacto devaluatorio ha sido más dramático en Argentina que en el […]

En un contexto de enfrentamiento económico entre China y EEUU, el efecto global ha sido la aversión al riesgo por parte de los fondos de inversión a los países emergentes, volviendo a la tranquilidad del súper-dólar. Pero porqué el impacto devaluatorio ha sido más dramático en Argentina que en el resto del mundo.

Menos de una semana duró la euforia de la reclasificación de Argentina de “economía de frontera” a “economía emergente”. Lejos de atraer inversiones, la buena noticia llegó un minuto antes de la caída mundial de las economías emergentes y la devaluación de sus monedas.

El salto de la cotización fue del 56,3% en el primer semestre y un 15,9% en junio. El peso argentino es la moneda emergente más devaluada

La oferta oficial de divisas no calmó al dólar

Es una pregunta recurrente, pero que en la Argentina nunca encuentra una respuesta definitiva: ¿por qué sube el dólar? Este final de junio encontró una persistente demanda por el cierre de posiciones de fin de mes y cobertura inversora, tanto de empresas como del público, en fecha del cobro de salarios y medio aguinaldo.

La demanda del viernes acercó al dólar minorista a los 30 pesos y obligó a la intervención oficial por USD 450 millones, casi la mitad (44%) del volumen negociado, aunque la oferta no fue suficiente contraparte para bajar la cotización.

Factores locales y externos convergen en la escalada: no es ajeno al salto del dólar en la plaza cambiaria el temor por la desaceleración de la economía doméstica y la creciente aversión global al riesgo, que produce hace semanas una devaluación de las monedas emergentes.

Entre las economías emergentes, la moneda argentina es la que más se devaluó en el mundo en 2018: un 14,5% en junio y un 36% en el transcurso del año. Esto se traduce en un salto de la cotización del dólar de 56,3% en el primer semestre y un 15,9% en junio.

SEIS MOTIVOS DETRÁS DE LA SUBA DEL DÓLAR:

1) INFLACIÓN. Entre enero de 2016 y junio de 2018 la inflación en Argentina acumuló cerca de 103 por ciento. El evidente retraso de la cotización del dólar, al haber aumentado por debajo de la inflación en 2016 y 2017, generó un efecto de “olla a presión”. En 2018 recuperó todo el terreno y hoy se ubicó por encima del recorrido general de los precios minoristas. En dos años y medio acumula un alza de 122,7%, desde los $13,28 del 30 de diciembre de 2015. Si el dólar hubiera replicado el movimiento de la inflación, hoy debería costar 27 pesos.

2) ESCASA OFERTA. Con un dólar que se dispara desaparecen los vendedores o aquellos que venden solo aceptan precios en alza. Apenas la oferta de la banca pública modera la suba en períodos de incertidumbre. Por eso, la pérdida de USD 12.000 millones de reservas entre marzo y mayo fue una señal de alerta que recalentó la demanda.

 En 2018, además, hubo menor liquidación de los agroexportadores por varios motivos: la sequía que recortó severamente la cosecha, la eliminación de la obligatoriedad de liquidar divisas en el país y la caída de los precios de las materias primas. A USD 320 por tonelada, la soja tiene hoy el precio más bajo desde marzo de 2016 y similar al de marzo de 2008. Y es la mitad que el alcanzado en 2012.

3) DEVALUACIONES EMERGENTES. La apreciación global del dólar, consistente con el aumento de las tasas de interés en el país norteamericano, golpea a las divisas en todo el mundo, en especial las emergentes como el peso argentino y la lira turca. Por ejemplo, en Brasil el dólar acumula en 2018 un alza de 17,2%, de 3,31 a 3,88 reales. La devaluación de la moneda del principal socio comercial de la Argentina también afecta a la cotización de nuestra moneda.

4) AVERSIÓN AL PESO. Una escalada del dólar que no parece tener un límite preciso genera a la par una aversión por las inversiones en moneda doméstica. El temor que generó la licuación de capital invertido en las LEBAC en mayo y junio es mayor que el incentivo de tasas de interés que ya superan el 40% anual. Frente a una inflación que también está en ascenso, el dólar, con una ganancia superior al 50% en seis meses, se impuso como inversión ganadora y un refugio ante eventualidades futuras.

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