Soja: Argentina queda atrás de Brasil por China

El mal clima define la debilidad del mercado actual. Los privados recortan aún más las expectativas de producción en Argentina -debido a la sequía generalizada. Sin embargo, la compra de fondos conduce a las alzas de precios, que Chicago ya puso en las nubes y que son históricos. Por Celina […]


El mal clima define la debilidad del mercado actual. Los privados recortan aún más las expectativas de producción en Argentina -debido a la sequía generalizada. Sin embargo, la compra de fondos conduce a las alzas de precios, que Chicago ya puso en las nubes y que son históricos.

Por Celina Mesquida y Agustin Fernadez Naredo *

Mientras tanto, Brasil, ni lerdo ni perezoso, avanza con su cosecha: sus rendimientos iniciales se encuentran entre un 5-10% mejores que el récord del año pasado. Con esta situación podemos fácilmente reemplazar una producción con otra y mantener la ecuación final de soja de Sudamérica.

Argentina es el principal exportador de harina de soja del mundo, pero atraviesa graves problemas climáticos. La desesperación de los fondos se acentúa en la harina, que en consecuencia se traslada a la soja. Percepción algo perversa, ya que soja como poroto sobra en el mundo.

Si analizamos la demanda, en diciembre China importó 9.55 millones de t, 6.1% más que el año pasado (y más que cualquier otro diciembre). Durante el año calendario 2017, China importó 95.5 millones t (14% más que 2016). El origen de esta soja, es 65% de Estados Unidos (aunque usualmente USA representa el 83% de los envíos!).

Por su parte Brasil, participó del 20.3% (antes participaba con un 5%). Este comportamiento deja a Estados Unidos desplazado de su natural negocio y Brasil, con su gran producción, se apresta a encabezar las ventas de poroto a China.

Esta ecuación cambia la dinámica de comercio mundial, si Argentina produce menos soja, podrá ajustar mínimamente la molienda y exportar menos poroto. Brasil podrá exportar más poroto e incluso harina, y Estados Unidos tendrá que bajar aún más las bases para competir por poroto y por harina, así todos se quedan contentos y no habría porque vivir sobresaltos en los precios. Sin embargo, los fondos no miran el desenvolvimiento de la secuencia de acciones, sino que se quedan con el problema puntual actual; y por el momento, el riesgo es inminente en Argentina.

El maíz nos avisó reiteradas veces que sobrepasaría el 360 en marzo y cuando lo ignoramos, lo logró. El fortalecimiento de las bases en Argentina y Ucrania están permitiendo que los suministros estadounidenses se introduzcan más baratos en la UE y al norte de África. Si bien esto ha sido un buen cambio de ritmo para las exportaciones de USA, aún queda un largo camino para alcanzar el ritmo de ventas, ya que las mismas se encuentran 34.25% por debajo del año pasado.

Por los márgenes

Es imposible ser permanentemente alcista en un mercado sobre-abastecido. Sin embargo, siempre es posible administrar márgenes y eso es lo único que nos permite continuar y crecer en el negocio.

Si nos centramos en la administración del margen, cuando observamos la soja mayo en pesos, estamos en los niveles más altos del contrato considerando, soja mayo SK18 MATBA y tipo de cambio mayo-18 en ROFEX.

Si consideramos devaluación del peso (14% desde el 11 de diciembre) y la suba de SK18 3%, nos preguntamos si la combinación de ambas variables nos deja un margen atractivo para tomar cobertura

Precios en la nube

Adicionalmente, la suba de precios en el mercado local fue mayor que en Chicago y esto se refleja en el fortalecimiento de los basis, tal como se observa en el grafica a continuación en la línea gris. Este grafico muestra la evolución de los basis de las últimas 3 campañas y el promedio de las mismas, en el año calendario. En la campaña 2017-18 -línea gris- no solo se observamos el nivel más alto para esta campaña sino también el nivel récord para este momento del año.

Tenemos un precio récord histórico de soja en pesos, debido a subas en el mercado local, subas en Chicago y devaluación. ¿Qué más puede pedir el mercado?

Es que, si bien los precios en pesos serían récord, no necesariamente indican una mejora en los márgenes año sobre año. Ya que en este análisis no consideramos el aumento de los costos (por insumos, devaluación, inflación, etc.)

Ahora bien, observar y tener disponible estos precios en el mercado, al menos nos genera una pregunta disparadora. ¿Estos precios, nos permiten cerrar un margen atractivo?

Lógicamente, SK18 puede subir o bajar al igual que el tipo de cambio, y el riesgo de que las variables cambien con respecto a cuando tomamos la decisión siempre está presente.

De esta manera volvemos a recordar el debate sobre precios 2017-18:y cómo ganarle al mercado y adicionamos a esta columna las preguntas con las que terminamos en esa ocasión:  ¿cómo podríamos esperar que se den las intenciones de siembra de los Estados Unidos y que impacto tendrían las mismas en precios a cosecha de Sudamérica? ¿Sobre qué grano seriamos más agresivos en cobertura viendo nuestros márgenes con precios actuales y la volatilidad, al alza o a la baja, que podría tener cada commoditie?

*Celina Mesquida de RJO´Brien y Agustín Fernandez Naredo de Adecoagro para Mercados Granarios (AgroEducación)

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Soja: Argentina queda atrás de Brasil por China

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