Economía & Finanzas 2018: En esta sección iremos consultando a diferentes economistas de variadas opiniones para poder sacar conclusiones e “información para decidir” en un año crucial.
Entrevista al Lic. José Ignacio Bano, gerente de asesores financieros de InvertirOnline.com
Prensa Económica: ¿Qué opina sobre este aparente gradualismo del BCRA (que tuvo un final de 2017 endemoniado) y sus metas de inflación?
José Bano: El hecho deja en claro que la entidad consiguió mantener su postura de controlar la inflación con política monetaria restrictiva a la vez que alinea más su accionar con el equipo económico del gobierno tras los anuncios del pasado 28 de diciembre en el que se comunicó que se aflojaban un poco las exigencias de la meta inflacionaria para 2018 con el objetivo de mejorar el resultado de crecimiento de PBI.
El 0,75% de baja de tasas parece estar dentro del estrecho margen de equilibrio y en concordancia con la política de gradualismo. Una baja mucho mayor (en la previa se pensaba que podría haber sido de 2% o más) hubiese dado una señal negativa que disparara las expectativas inflacionarias nuevamente, a la vez que hubiese generado que los inversores salgan a buscar mejores alternativas, como por ejemplo el dólar, por lo que también podría haber habido una mayor suba de esa moneda.
Respecto al impacto sobre la economía real, la teoría dice que una baja en las tasas tiene un efecto positivo. Bajas en las tasas de referencia implica bajas en las tasas de los préstamos, lo que hace que más proyectos empiecen a ser rentables, y por lo tanto se invierta más y se crezca más.
En la Argentina, sin embargo, los bancos todavía están prestando sobre la liquidez que tienen, por lo que una baja de tasa no afecta directamente su costo de capital (capital que luego prestan). Que todavía tengan liquidez excedente se ve en el hecho de que la tasa BADLAR sea de 23%. Si necesitasen liquidez, tendrían que salir a pagar más que las Lebacs para seducir a los inversores. Entonces, el impacto directo, financiero, del recorte de 0.75% en la tasa de referencia sería magro.
Por otro lado, hay otro efecto que surge del anuncio y es que mostró una firme convicción de seguir dándole batalla a la inflación. Esto es muy importante porque Argentina no crece en períodos de alta inflación. Si uno mira series históricas notará que la mejor performance del PBI se dió durante la convertibilidad (hasta que se atrasó demasiado el tipo de cambio) y durante el período posterior a la crisis de 2001. Controlar la inflación, en Argentina colabora mucho con el crecimiento de la economía real.
PE: ¿Qué instrumentos quedarían como los más rendidores para un inversor?
José Bano: Primero un breve análisis del dólar. En la actualidad, la zona de los 19 pesos en los que se encuentra ya no parece tan atrasado como ocurría un mes atrás. Con un tipo de cambio promedio de 20 pesos que el gobierno tomó para su presupuesto 2018, y un inicio en 19 pesos, probablemente termine el dólar alrededor de 21 pesos para fin de año, lo cual sería una depreciación apenas superior al 10%. También hay que tener en cuenta que en marzo comienzan las liquidaciones de la cosecha gruesa por lo que ya en ese período comienzan a entrar más dólares al sistema. Entonces, a nivel macroeconómico, no hay nada que haga pensar que el dólar vaya a subir mucho, aunque nunca se descartan pequeños sobresaltos porque es sabido que en Argentina, ante la primer duda, todos corremos a los dólares.
Sabiendo que el dólar estará controlado, las Lebacs a 28% seguirán siendo de los instrumentos más rendidores el resto del año. También, especialmente como cobertura, pueden considerarse los bonos indexados por CER que tienen un rendimiento asegurado superior a la inflación, sin importar cuál sea esta. Dependiendo del bono, las tasas rondan los 5 puntos porcentuales por sobre la inflación.
Y en cuanto a las acciones, el panorama siempre es más complejo. Venimos de un 2016 de fuerte crecimiento, un 2017 donde el índice Merval subió 70% y una suba desde mitad de diciembre de 19%. Tras semejante performance, siempre pueden notarse señales de agotamiento. Sin embargo, aún queda pendiente el ingreso de Argentina a la condición de Mercado Emergente lo que implicaría un fuerte ingreso de capital financiero. Además, hay muchos sectores que tienen todavía posibilidades de crecimiento, especialmente los de Energía y Construcción.
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