Dejamos atrás un año convulso para la economía y política global. Trump consiguió una victoria inesperada, los presidentes de Italia y GB dimitieron como consecuencia de referéndums (Cameron por el Brexit), el petróleo alcanzó cotas históricas mínimas, y la situación en Oriente Medio ha originado uno de los mayores y más dramáticos éxodos que podamos recordar.
Por Aurelio García del Barrio *
Afrontamos el nuevo año con la mirada puesta en claves económicas que generan incertidumbre entre los analistas: se espera un crecimiento de la economía mundial del 2,8%, una mejora con respecto a 2016, pero el sexto año consecutivo en que la actividad económica mundial se mantiene por debajo del 3%. Por otra parte, los efectos de las elecciones en EE.UU. y las negociaciones del Brexit continuarán conociéndose en los próximos meses. Las elecciones que van a celebrarse en Europa revelarán, asimismo, si el populismo está ganando terreno.
Las fechas clave del año son las siguientes:
- 20 de enero (pasado): Fue el día de la ceremonia de investidura presidencial en EEUU y del duro discurso de Trump
- 15 de marzo: Elecciones generales en Países Bajos
- 31 de marzo: Se espera que Reino Unido active el Art 50 para comenzar las negociaciones para abandonar la UE
- 23 de abril: elecciones en Francia (1a vuelta)
- 7 de mayo: elecciones en Francia (2a vuelta)
- Octubre: XIX Congreso Nacional del Partido Comunista de China; otoño, elecciones federales alemanas.
ESTADOS UNIDOS
La victoria de Trump fue, sorpresivamente, bien acogida por los mercados de renta variable de EEUU, principalmente debido a la convicción de que el presidente cumplirá al pie de la letra sus propuestas.
- Política Fiscal
Será más laxa: El IRPF se reducirá de los siete tramos actuales -que van desde un 10% hasta un 39,6%- a sólo tres -con un tope del 25% para las grandes fortunas. Este cambio en el ingreso, junto con la falta de reducción de gasto público, puede suponer un aumento de la deuda de u$s 5.000 millones, que se sumarían a los u$s 19.000 millones actuales. En cualquier caso, la expectativa de que la nueva administración estadounidense promulgue importantes estímulos fiscales ha aumentado el optimismo sobre el crecimiento de Estados Unidos.
- Política Monetaria
Por el contrario, la política monetaria se tornará más dura, tras el aumento de tipos decidido por la Reserva Federal en diciembre, un interrogante clave para el corto plazo será cuánto puede desacoplarse la política monetaria de EEUU de la del resto del mundo; el aumento relativo de los costes de endeudamiento en EEUU se verá limitado por la búsqueda de rendimiento por parte de los inversores globales. Podemos esperar tres subidas de 25 puntos básicos cada una este año.
–Súper Dólar
El aumento de tipos de diciembre y, las expectativas de subidas en 2017, disparó la cotización del dólar, que solamente se encuentra depreciado un 4% respecto al Euro, que se ha debilitado, pues se prevé que la incertidumbre política podría malograr el plan del Banco Central Europeo (BCE) de recortar las medidas de expansión cuantitativa (QE). El yen también se ha depreciado ante la expectativa de que el Banco de Japón pudiera verse obligado a defender su tope de rendimiento con medidas más enérgicas si los rendimientos de los títulos del Tesoro de EE.UU. continúan subiendo.
-Bonos
El elevado rendimiento de los bonos estadounidenses tendrá un impacto negativo en los mercados emergentes, reduciendo significativamente el margen para una mayor relajación monetaria.
-Inflación
La inflación estimula la idea de un mayor crecimiento nominal (facilitando el desapalancamiento) y de mayor poder de fijación de precios para las empresas; el tiempo dirá si los mercados mantienen el optimismo respecto a estas perspectivas o si comienzan a ver la inflación como una amenaza. En este contexto, la economía americana puede crecer en 2017 en torno al 2,3%.
EUROPA
Las economías europeas se benefician de una conjunción de factores favorables. Los precios del petróleo se mantienen relativamente bajos, el crecimiento de la economía mundial es sostenido, el euro ha seguido depreciándose y las políticas económicas en la UE son favorables a la recuperación.
- Política Monetaria
La expansión cuantitativa llevada a cabo por el Banco Central Europeo, está afectando significativamente a los mercados financieros, contribuyendo a una disminución de los tipos de interés y expectativas de mejores condiciones crediticias. La política fiscal en la UE, neutra en términos generales (ni restrictiva ni expansionista), también acompaña al crecimiento. Con el tiempo, la continuación de las reformas estructurales y el Plan de Inversiones para Europa de la UE también deberán dar sus frutos.
- Peligro de la Ultra Derecha
Sin embargo, la eurozona afronta enormes desafíos políticos, que podrían perjudicar la confianza y el crecimiento del próximo año, incluyendo la materialización del Brexit, las consecuencias de la reciente derrota del referéndum en Italia y las próximas elecciones en Francia, Alemania y los Países Bajos, debilitando el crecimiento de la zona euro a un 1,5% este año.
En el Brexit, un escenario severo, supondría una intensificación de la tensión financiera, especialmente en Europa, un endurecimiento de las condiciones financieras y efectos mucho más pronunciados sobre la confianza. Los acuerdos comerciales entre el Reino Unido y la Unión Europea volverían a basarse en las normas de la OMC. El aumento de los populismos y la situación de la banca, principalmente en Italia, son también factores de riesgo a tener en cuenta.
El euro sigue estando muy infravalorado según la paridad del poder adquisitivo y es de esperar que el superávit por cuenta corriente de la zona euro favorezca a la moneda única en los próximos meses. Es probable que veamos el dólar en paridad con el Euro de forma puntual en la primera mitad de 2017, pero el dólar no superará ese umbral ni se mantendrá tan apreciado de forma consistente. En primer lugar, un dólar claramente fortalecido hace menos competitivas las exportaciones de EE.UU. y penaliza el crecimiento y los resultados empresariales, lo que puede llevar a la FED a moderar el ritmo de subida de tipos.
Es más que probable que el tipo de cambio atraviese un cambio de tendencia a mediados del año 2017. Aunque la visibilidad acerca de los nuevos presupuestos es todavía limitada, la combinación de una menor recaudación fiscal por las rebajas de impuestos de Trump y las mayores inversiones en infraestructuras anticipan un aumento del déficit fiscal hasta niveles cercanos al 5%. La consecuencia más probable de esta menor disciplina presupuestaria y el aumento de la deuda pública en EE.UU. será una depreciación del dólar hasta 1,10 dólares a finales de 2017.
PAÍSES EMERGENTES
El índice MSCI Emerging Markets ha registrado una progresión del 7% en 2016 y en claro contraste con la caída del 17% que sufrió en 2015. El mercado de divisas, a pesar de excepciones notables como las del peso mexicano o la lira turca, ha marcado una tendencia al alza en las monedas emergentes. Este comportamiento globalmente positivo ha contado con la ayuda tanto de fuerzas de empuje como de atracción.
2017 puede ser un año complicado para los países en desarrollo, en particular para aquellos donde el nivel de endeudamiento es demasiado elevado, por los riesgos en el entorno exterior; la subida de tasas en EEUU supondría una mayor carga financiera por dos vías: las propias tasas y el tipo de cambio adverso.
La valoración de los activos financieros emergentes se encuentra igualmente, en niveles razonablemente atractivos. De entrada, varias medidas de los tipos de cambio de equilibrio indican que, en la mayoría de los casos, las divisas emergentes cotizan por debajo de su valor fundamental.
CHINA
¿Será China la nueva abanderada del libre comercio global? Sin dudas una paradoja histórica que no se puede soslayar. Se prevé que el Gigante tenga un crecimiento de 6,4%, donde los responsables políticos seguirán dando prioridad a estabilizar la economía dado que el Partido Comunista de China celebrará su XIX Congreso Nacional en Beijing durante el 2°semestre.
- Política Fiscal
Seguirá desempeñando un papel positivo. En 2017, el crecimiento de la inversión inmobiliaria y las ventas disminuirán, pero el efecto negativo será contrarrestado por la inversión en infraestructura. China deberá imponer reformas estructurales orientadas a la oferta y de políticas de control macroeconómico.
- Política Monetaria
Es poco probable que en 2017 haya una flexibilización monetaria significativa y la atención de la política monetaria podría cambiar de apoyar al crecimiento a evitar los riesgos. Se espera que el banco central prefiera herramientas como revertir acuerdos de recompra y facilidades en préstamos a mediano plazo para garantizar la liquidez y evitar un excesivo crecimiento del crédito.
La política monetaria de China estará determinada por el objetivo de crecimiento económico y se espera una creciente inflación, el alza de las tasas de interés en Estados Unidos y un yuan más débil, lo que restringirá el espacio para la flexibilización.
El renminbi (RMB), o yuan chino, ha registrado agudas devaluaciones desde octubre, lo que ha causado preocupación en el mercado, pero sería extraña la posibilidad de disminuciones persistentes en 2017 y China puede manejar el impacto.
INDIA
India podría experimentar un crecimiento del 7,5% y convertirse en la más dinámica del mundo. La economía india ha resistido mejor que otros países emergentes la recesión económica global. La inflación está controlada, al igual que el déficit en cuenta corriente, y la demanda interna sigue siendo sólida.
India es la cuarta potencia agrícola del mundo, La agricultura representa aproximadamente el 18% del PBI, pero el gran desarrollo está en el sector servicios, la parte más dinámica de la economía india, que contribuye al 52% del PBI y emplea a más de un cuarto de la población activa (en torno a 471 millones de trabajadores).
BRASIL
Se ha enfrentado a una grave recesión desde hace dos años, y puede volver a la senda del crecimiento en 2017, en torno a un 0,6%. El gobierno ha abordado medidas estructurales tales como la congelación de los gastos públicos en los próximos veinte años, la presentación al Congreso de una profunda reforma del sistema de pensiones y también se propone reformar el modelo laboral. Para 2017, las proyecciones de inflación se sitúan en un 4,90 %.
RUSIA
Será un mercado atractivo en 2017 debido a cambios favorables en la coyuntura de la política exterior y la estabilización en el mercado nacional. Los factores que tienen un impacto positivo en la imagen de la economía rusa son: el robustecimiento del rublo, la reducción de la inflación y el incremento de los precios de los hidrocarburos. El crecimiento de la economía podría estar en torno al 1,5%, después de dos años de recesión, si el precio del petróleo está en torno a los 50 dólares.
OPEP alcanzó un acuerdo para limitar la producción de crudo, al que se sumaron Rusia y el bloque de productores no pertenecientes a la OPEP, liderado por México, de tal manera que se limitará la oferta y esto conllevará la estabilización de precios de crudo en 2017. El precio de Brent se mantendrá en niveles de 55-57 dólares por barril en este año.
ESPAÑA
Después de muchos meses de falta de Gobierno, éste se formó en diciembre y ha conseguido negociar el techo de gasto para 2017, que se situará en 118.337 millones de euros, unos 5.000 millones menos que el límite para 2016.
Cuatro serán los grandes desafíos de 2017 para la economía española: desempleo; reforma de las pensiones; cambios en el modelo de financiación y déficit; y la deuda.
- Aurelio García del Barrio es Director del Global MBA con Especialización en Finanzas del Instituto de Estudios Bursátiles (IEB)
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