Aldo Abram: “Inflación será del 7% en el primer trimestre y 21,5% en 2018”

El economista Aldo Abram estimó que la inflación se ubicará por encima del 6% en el primer trimestre del año, lo cual impondría una severa presión a la meta anual del 15% recalculada por el Gobierno para este 2018. Director Ejecutivo, Libertad y Progreso. Twitter: @AbramAldo El director de la Fundación […]

El economista Aldo Abram estimó que la inflación se ubicará por encima del 6% en el primer trimestre del año, lo cual impondría una severa presión a la meta anual del 15% recalculada por el Gobierno para este 2018.
Aldo Abram

Director Ejecutivo, Libertad y Progreso. Twitter: @AbramAldo

El director de la Fundación Libertad y Progreso responsabilizó de esa aceleración de precios a la “flexibilización de la política monetaria del Banco Central”, que inicialmente preveía para este año un costo de vida del 12%.

Abram consideró que “no existirá una estrategia basada en metas de inflación hasta que el Banco Central priorice el cumplimiento de esas metas y deje de ocuparse de licuar problemas generados por la política económica”.Precios y dólar en argentina

Recomendó que la autoridad monetaria “priorice bajar la inflación” y advirtió que el Banco Central “no tiene por qué licuar los problemas del mal manejo de las cuentas publicas, sino decirle al gobierno que se haga cargo, y ocuparse de las metas”.

Si el Banco Central hubiera tomado esa decisión, y no la de licuar el desmanejo de las cuentas públicas, la inflación hubiese sido del 17%, pero lo que pasa es que no ha habido, ni hay metas de inflación”, opinó Abram.

El economista señaló que el problema es mucho más profundo: “No me preocupa tanto que las metas no se vienen vienen cumpliendo. Tenía razón el Banco Central cuando decía que si se cambian la metas no hay metas, pero también no cumplirlas implica que no existen”.

Abran señaló que en el Gobierno “tampoco pueden decir que bajaron la inflación”. Recordó que el costo de vida anualizado del segundo semestre del 2016 fue del 18,5% y el del segundo semestre del 2017 del 24%, “entonces no bajaron la inflación, al contrario, la subieron”.

El economista criticó que entre mayo y agosto del año pasado el Banco Central “dejó avanzar una fuerte minicorrida y depreciación del peso, y volvió a repetir el mismo error en diciembre, que sumó más inflación”.

Si no se defiende el valor de la moneda por qué le vamos a creer al Banco Central, cuando la mejor política anti- inflacionaria es no permitir que el peso se deprecie”, señaló.

Abram advirtió que, ahora, con una política más flexible, se hace aún más difícil prever que se cumpla la meta y es bastante probable que se acerque al 7 % en el primer trimestre, o seguro más del 6%, y en el primer semestre de este año la inflación anualizada sea del 21,5%.

Advirtió que el aumento del dólar de diciembre “tardará tres meses en trasladarse a los precios, lo que impactará en el primer trimestre de este año en más inflación”.

Se quejó de que “esa minicorrida de fin de año se festeja porque el dólar sube, pero el valor del peso baja, porque no se confía en el Banco Central, porque no defiende el valor de la moneda que es la mejor arma para combatir la inflación”.

“Se subió el dólar pero no se resolvió ningún problema, porque la inflación termina licuando el efecto de la suba del tipo de cambio, y ahora volvemos a tener el mismo problema del atraso cambiario”, sostuvo Abram.

A pesar del fuerte déficit de la balanza comercial, Abram consideró que “se debería abrir mucho más la economía, porque la de hoy es muy cerrada, hay una menor demanda de dólares para importación de la que debería haber, eso ayudaría a subir el dólar, pero depreciar el peso es un parche coyuntural”.

Sostuvo que “no hay que sumarle depreciación al peso, porque no es una buena estrategia, seguirá pegando en precios futuro y alimentando la inflación”.

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Aldo Abram: “Inflación será del 7% en el primer trimestre y 21,5% en 2018”

tiempo de lectura: 3 min