La inflación se ubica actualmente en torno al 29%/30% interanual, pero probablemente se desacelerará hasta 25%/27% durante los próximos meses, ya que el dólar cuasi fijo y el torniquete monetario que Fábrega había aplicado el año pasado contribuyen a que el aumento de precios actualmente “ceda terreno”, anticipa la consultora Economía y Regiones.
Sin embargo, en la segunda parte del año la inflación se acelerará porque la actual política monetaria expansiva de Vanoli, que aumentó la tasa de variación anual de la base monetaria de 17% a 32%, comenzará a tener impacto sobre precios. En este sentido, hay que remarcar que la política monetaria actúa siempre con retardo sobre los precios.
Además, también es muy probable que en la segunda parte del año el dólar cuasi fijo (debido al contexto regional) se deslice más pronunciadamente, lo que también contribuirá a la aceleración de los precios.
En concreto, la próxima administración recibiría una inflación acelerándose hasta 32%/33% interanual, es decir, 6 ó 7 puntos porcentuales superior a la de mediados de 2015. En este contexto, se entiende que la tarea de bajar la inflación no será sencilla.
El próximo gobierno recibirá una Inflación en plena aceleración
La inflación se ubica actualmente en torno al 29%/30% interanual, pero probablemente se desacelerará hasta 25%/27% durante los próximos meses, ya que el dólar cuasi fijo y el torniquete monetario que Fábrega había aplicado el año pasado contribuyen a que el aumento de precios actualmente “ceda terreno”, anticipa la consultora […]
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