Según un estudio del Instituto del Pensamiento y Políticas Públicas el ajuste de las jubilaciones de acuerdo a la Ley de Movilidad Jubilatoria es de sólo $ 20 por día, lo que alcanza para un pan de manteca y un paquete de galletitas para endulzar la vejez.
Por Claudio Lozano
“Mídanlo con el índice que quieran y díganme si en alguna etapa de otras décadas han vivido una situación como esta“.
Esta fue la frase que rápidamente deslizó la presidenta Cristina Fernández de Kirchner luego de haber anunciado los primeros resultados de la fórmula de movilidad para este año 2015. Como en intervenciones públicas anteriores, la Primera mandataria afirma que asistimos a incrementos récord en los niveles de haberes jubilatorios que, según los números oficiales superan ampliamente toda pauta inflacionaria, ya sea oficial o alternativa, y que incluso logra ampliarse por encima del nivel general de salarios.
Un estudio exhaustivo del IPyP llevado a cabo por Ana Rameri, Agustina Haimovich y Alejandro Ventura, y coordinado por Tomás Raffo no deja las siguientes sntesis y conclusiones:
- A partir de Marzo 2015 y en base a la Ley de Movilidad, los haberes tendrán un aumento “récord” del 18,26%. El valor de la jubilación mínima pasará de $3.231,6 a $3.821,7, lo que implica que por día los jubilados podrán disponer de $ 19,7 más, equivalentes a un pan de manteca y un paquete de galletitas saladas a Precios Cuidados. El haber medio, aumentará de $4.029,7 a $4.765,5. Es decir que en promedio los jubilados dispondrán diariamente de apenas $24,5 más.
- Tal cual lo mencionó la Presidenta en su discurso, dicho aumento acumula el 38,61% interanual de Marzo 2014 a Marzo 2015. Sin embargo, omitió mencionar que tal período toma como base un nivel deprimido en los haberes, ya que el aumento anterior constituyó una de las actualizaciones más magras de la serie, con un 11,31%.
- Por otra parte, si bien los aumentos previsionales otorgados superan la evolución experimentada por los salarios, lejos de responder ello a un atributo favorable de la fórmula de movilidad como se insinúa desde el oficialismo, esconde un mecanismo perverso en tanto tal situación es inherente al ajuste salarial que viene recayendo sobre los trabajadores a causa de las elevadas tasas de inflación, en conjunto con el retraso sistemático del Mínimo no Imponible para el pago del Impuesto a las Ganancias.
- A pesar de esa “mejora” relativa de los haberes con respecto a los salarios, no es menos cierto que los aumentos jubilatorios de los últimos años resultan insuficientes para que la población mayor pueda satisfacer las condiciones materiales que posibilitan vivir dignamente. De este modo, el incremento anunciado llega en un contexto en el cual, a Febrero 2015, los haberes ya perdieron un 9% de su poder de compra con respecto al aumento anterior (Septiembre 2014). Así, el aumento del 18,26% se reduce al 5,2% si comparamos con el poder adquisitivo que tenían los haberes en Septiembre. Proyectando una inflación del 30% para el año 2015, la mejora obtenida a partir del próximo mes se licuará rápidamente llevando a que en Agosto–último mes antes del próximo aumento-, el poder de compra de los haberes haya sufrido una caída del 10,4%.
- La Canasta de la Tercera Edad, elaborada por la Defensoría de la Tercera Edad de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires, que incluye los bienes y servicios imprescindibles para un adulto mayor, supera actualmente los $7.000. Con el aumento “récord” que regirá a partir del mes próximo, el haber mínimo apenas alcanzará para adquirir algo más de la mitad de la Canasta, en tanto el haber medio llegará sólo al 65,5%, lo cual incluso empeorará en los próximos meses al ritmo de la inflación. Tal situación es aún más preocupante cuando se considera que, según datos oficiales al 2014, el 70% de los beneficios previsionales son menores o iguales a la mínima, mientras que sólo un 12% de los mismos supera los $6.000.
- Según nuestra medición de pobreza e indigencia, al menos medio millón de adultos mayores habita en hogares que se encuentran por debajo de la línea de pobreza, mientras más de 100 mil no tienen ingresos suficientes para poder alimentarse.
Conclusiones
El complejo escenario en materia económica y social experimentado en los últimos meses en conjunto con una serie de medidas adoptadas por el Gobierno, pone una luz de alerta sobre la magnitud que alcanzará el próximo aumento, correspondiente a Septiembre 2015, en tanto afecta directamente la recaudación de ANSES, determinante para el cálculo de los aumentos. Por un lado, la destrucción sistemática de empleo registrado que se dio particularmente en el año 2014 podría redundar en una desaceleración de la recaudación en concepto de Aportes y Contribuciones de ANSES. Ello se verá acentuado, a su vez, por la baja estipulada en concepto de Contribuciones Patronales que a partir de la Ley de Promoción de Trabajo Registrado y Prevención del Fraude Laboral, promulgada en Mayo 2014 implica para un conjunto de firmas, la exención total o parcial del pago de las contribuciones patronales. Finalmente, a ello se suma el mal denominado “programa de empleo” Proemplear, que estableció un conjunto de exenciones empresariales para el pago de Contribuciones Patronales. Frente a estos acontecimientos, será cuestión de esperar a la segunda actualización y no anticipar el festejo de la performance jubilatoria para este 2015. Resultaría una situación por demás preocupante que al ajuste real, que vía precios, sufren ya los haberes jubilatorios se sume el ajuste nominal de los haberes jubilatorios en función de los ingresos recaudados.
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