Qué deja la década kirchnerista

Desde hace mucho tiempo los argentinos creemos seguir viviendo en un país rico. Por eso nuestros proyectos de futuro siempre proponen la vuelta al pasado, sea el de la “edad de oro” de la Argentina agroexportadora del Centenario, sea el de la industrialización sustitutiva de la segunda posguerra.  Por Guillermo […]

Desde hace mucho tiempo los argentinos creemos seguir viviendo en un país rico. Por eso nuestros proyectos de futuro siempre proponen la vuelta al pasado, sea el de la “edad de oro” de la Argentina agroexportadora del Centenario, sea el de la industrialización sustitutiva de la segunda posguerra.

 Por Guillermo Rozenwurcel – Economista (club Político Argentino)

La realidad, claro está, es bien distinta. Hace tiempo dejamos de ser un país rico, y si ciertos retazos de nuestra prosperidad pasada se mantuvieron hasta inicios de los ‘70, ello fue así básicamente porque la resiliencia de la organización estatal logró sostener cierto ritmo de crecimiento -sin duda mediocre- y mantener más o menos acotado el conflicto distributivo; y porque fuimos consumiendo el capital previamente acumulado, especialmente en infraestructura social y productiva.

Lo que fue durante varias décadas un retroceso gradual, se transformó en decadencia acelerada, cuando a mediados de los ‘70 la agudización de la conflictividad social y política condujo al derrumbe de la segunda experiencia de gobierno peronista y la barbarie de la dictadura terrorista.

Crisis de profundidad inédita se sucedieron desde entonces con llamativa regularidad, desarticulando el funcionamiento económico y haciéndonos retroceder cada vez más en la escala (relativa) del desarrollo socioeconómico. Pese a las esperanzas que suscitó, el retorno a la democracia no interrumpió el proceso de involución.

Con la llegada del nuevo siglo, sin embargo, el fuerte aumento de la demanda y los precios de los commodities ocasionó un extendido período de bonanza que, junto a la fuerte reducción en el endeudamiento externo posibilitado por la renegociación posterior al default, permitió a la economía argentina superar en pocos años el colapso de la Convertibilidad.

 Lamentablemente, la oportunidad fue desaprovechada por las administraciones kirchneristas.

Así, pese a un inicio muy auspicioso, la economía de la “década kirchnerista” fue deteriorándose paulatinamente debido a la incapacidad del gobierno para cambiar de políticas cuando fue agotándose la combinación de elevado desempleo y exceso de capacidad generados por la crisis de 2001-02.

El empecinamiento en mantener las políticas iniciales apelando a parches improvisados hizo que éstas fueran perdiendo efectividad para sostener el crecimiento y la pretendida redistribución de ingresos, en la misma medida en que fueron carcomiendo los “superávit gemelos”, acelerando la inflación y atrasando el tipo de cambio. En una situación externa que ya no se presenta favorable, además, la creciente inconsistencia y discrecionalidad de la política económica provocó igualmente una fuerte salida de fondos al exterior, transformando la abundancia de los primeros años en escasez de divisas.

El resultado fue la reversión del ciclo de acumulación de reservas, al punto que actualmente el stock en poder del Banco Central ha llegado a niveles preocupantemente bajos.

 Mirando hacia adelante, el legado económico que deja el kirchnerismo es sumamente preocupante.

 En lo inmediato, el nuevo gobierno deberá enfrentar un complicadísimo “combo” de inflación creciente, fuertes desequilibrios de precios relativos (en particular, del tipo de cambio y las tarifas públicas), alta informalidad laboral y consolidación de un núcleo de pobreza “estructural”, enorme déficit fiscal financiado con emisión pese a la elevadísima presión tributaria imperante; cepo al dólar; recuperación del comercio exterior y reglas coherentes impo-expo; déficit en la cuenta corriente del balance de pagos, crisis energética y de la infraestructura social y productiva y, como frutilla del postre, negociación del default de la deuda externa.

Por supuesto, el día 1, deberá sincerar las estadísticas y el valor de la moneda, para comenzar a recuperar paulatinamente la confianza en las instituciones económicas argentinas y poder atraer inversiones y préstamos más baratos.

Más a largo plazo, el mayor pasivo que deja la década es el desaprovechamiento de la prolongada bonanza externa para iniciar un proceso de desarrollo sostenible e inclusivo.

La inversión privada languideció ante la inestabilidad de las reglas de juego y la inversión pública careció de planificación apropiada y se dilapidó.

El ahorro privado no encontró motivos para quedarse en el país.

Las políticas sectoriales revelaron una visión anacrónica de los motores del desarrollo económico, intentando recrear “a cualquier costo” una industria sustitutiva de importaciones, en vez de apostar a los sectores productivos innovadores e internacionalmente competitivos.

 El país se aisló y la integración regional estuvo en fuerte retroceso, en particular con Brasil – nuestro socio estratégico, aunque no con Venezuela.

 Por último, la política de alianzas del Gobierno privilegió el capitalismo de “amigos” y benefició más a las clases medias que a la base de la pirámide social, privilegiando además el consumo de bienes privados en vez de aumentar la oferta de bienes públicos –salud y educación de calidad, vivienda digna, infraestructura sanitaria o transporte público, entre otros.

En síntesis, el fin de la década kirchnerista parece concluir con un nuevo cambio de sentido en el movimiento pendular que caracteriza la dinámica socio-económica de nuestro país, que por un lado nos lleva a repetir una y otra vez el ciclo “subjetivo” de la ilusión al desencanto y, por el otro, nos mantiene atrapados desde hace décadas en una trayectoria de persistente declinación relativa en el contexto regional e internacional.

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Qué deja la década kirchnerista

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