El despegue de África

Prensa Económica 7 años ago 956

El continente relegado está mostrando señales de cambio. Crecimiento del PIB, nuevos políticos, modernización de su infraestructura son señales alentadoras para aquellos que piensan que el siglo XXI puede ser, por fin, el tiempo de África. Niños famélicos, falta de servicios básicos, guerrillas sangrientas, campamentos de ONGs. Estas imágenes se […]

El continente relegado está mostrando señales de cambio. Crecimiento del PIB, nuevos políticos, modernización de su infraestructura son señales alentadoras para aquellos que piensan que el siglo XXI puede ser, por fin, el tiempo de África.

Niños famélicos, falta de servicios básicos, guerrillas sangrientas, campamentos de ONGs. Estas imágenes se nos vienen a la cabeza cuando pensamos en África, y no están del todo equivocadas, ya que África es la región con más pobreza y problemas de desarrollo del mundo. Pero puede que tengamos que cambiar nuestra visión del continente africano dentro de unos años.
Aunque la mayoría de los análisis se han enfocado en los famosos BRIC, uno de los éxitos económicos más importantes de la década pasada ha tenido lugar en África.
Si en el periodo 1980-2000 el crecimiento del PIB de África tuvo un promedio del 2,4%, en la década 2000-2010 este dato alcanzó el 5,7%. Esto quiere decir que en los últimos años África ha estado creciendo a un ritmo superior al de Latinoamérica (3,3%) y al de Europa (2,5%), aunque sin igualar a los países emergentes de Asia (7,9%).
África ha sido una de las regiones que mejor y más rápido se ha recuperado de la recesión económica global del periodo 2008-2013. Este crecimiento ha permitido que, hoy en día, África esté camino de alcanzar un producto interior bruto de $2,6 billones antes de 2020, a pesar de la contracción económica global.

Rápida urbanización
Si en el año 1960 eran unos 50 millones de personas las que habitaban en ciudades, en 2016 más de 500 millones de africanos vivirán en centros urbanos. Entonces el número de ciudades que superen el millón de habitantes será de 65, igualando a Europa y superando a Norteamérica (actualmente con 52).
La urbanización y el crecimiento económico se retroalimentan, ya que los “beneficios de la aglomeración”, generan escala y hacen más productivas a las empresas urbanas
Con el 40% de su población viviendo en ciudades, África tiene una tasa de urbanización mayor que la India (30%) y muy cercana a la de China (45%).

lagos
Vista de la moderna Lagos, capital comercial de Nigeria

Crecimiento económico y social

Las conclusiones del informe “World Economic Forum” del FMI aseguran que diez de las veinte economías con mayor potencial de crecimiento hasta 2017 son países africanos. Según el FMI, ninguno de esos veinte países que más crecerán en los próximos años son occidentales.
De hecho, entre los diez países que más crecieron la última década, seis son africanos y los otros cuatro, asiáticos. La previsión para 2015 es que todos los países africanos crezcan a ritmos muy superiores a los de Occiente. Ante estas buenas cifras económicas, grandes empresas e inversores apuestan por África para ser los primeros en explotar el potencial de la región.
Aunque se tiende a pensar lo contrario, en África el crecimiento económico está siendo acompañado por un desarrollo social muy importante para sus 1.000 millones de habitantes. De los veinte países que llevan un seguimiento de los estándares de vida a nivel nacional (tabla aparte), dieciséis de ellos han registrado importantes descensos en la tasa de mortalidad infantil, a una velocidad notable.
No solo eso, también la pobreza extrema ha descendido notablemente.
El aumento en la calidad de vida y el crecimiento económico se observa en el fuerte ascenso de una nueva clase media, salida de la pobreza. Es decir que esta vez las mejoras no están beneficiando únicamente a unas élites. Además, las expectativas de la población son optimistas. Según una encuesta realizada por la consultora McKinsey el 85% de los consumidores africanos encuestados afirma que espera estar mejor en los próximos años. Aun así, es cierto que sigue habiendo países en el continente en que no ha mejorado en salud y educación al mismo ritmo que sus tasas de crecimiento económico.
Pero, ¿cómo ha conseguido África, un continente históricamente deprimido y anclado en el subdesarrollo, comenzar a crecer económicamente en el siglo XXI? A continuación se repasan algunos de los pilares sobre los cuales se están cimentando el crecimiento económico y los progresos sociales en África.

Mucha población y muy joven

En la última década la población del continente ha aumentado en 200 millones de personas y actualmente ya supera los mil millones de habitantes. Las proyecciones demográficas indican que el aumento será mayor en los próximos años, con una media del 2.2% anual en el periodo 2010-2020. Mucho mayor que el 0.9% que se proyecta para Asia.
La ONU estima que el continente africano será responsable de más del 40% del crecimiento de la población mundial hasta el año 2030. A este ritmo, en el año 2050, la población de África será de 2.000 millones de habitantes, superando a la India (1.600 millones) y a China (1.400 millones). Para entonces, una de cada cinco personas en el mundo será africana.
Además de contar con una enorme población, África tiene la media de edad más baja de todo el mundo (19,7 años). Con esta estructura de población, la mano de obra africana (población en edad de trabajar) está creciendo con más rapidez que la del resto. En el año 2050 se espera que uno de cada cuatro trabajadores en el mundo sea africano.

Aumento de la clase media y el consumo

La mejor forma de medir el crecimiento económico y los progresos sociales es atendiendo a la dinámica de su clase media. Mientras en otros países del mundo se está reduciendo, la clase media en África está aumentando considerablemente.
Según el Banco Africano de Desarrollo, cerca de 150 millones de jóvenes africanos se han incorporado a las filas de la clase media desde 1990, y este año se habrán sumado otros 40 millones. La clase media africana supone actualmente el 34% de la población total. No es un porcentaje muy alto en comparación con otras regiones del mundo, pero debido a su enorme población, este dato equivale a 313 millones de personas.
En el año 2020 se espera que el 50% de las familias africanas sean de clase media.
Así, las industrias del consumo serán el motor del crecimiento en el continente africano en un futuro más próximo, con un aumento del 45% en el mercado de la alimentación y otros bienes básicos.
El consumo real de las familias africanas está creciendo a un ritmo del 3,5% por año, es decir, tres veces más que lo que creen desde el FMI y el Banco Mundial. La razón es que la agricultura para el autoconsumo no se considera dentro del PIB.
Lo que sí está bien analizado es la dinámica de la clase media y los nuevos hábitos de consumo. En África, cada vez es mayor la demanda de servicios de telefonía móvil o de acceso a internet. En el caso de los teléfonos móviles, se ha disparado de 15 millones de usuarios en el año 2000 hasta 500 millones en 2010 y 800 millones en 2015, es decir 8 aparatos cada 10 personas, un espectacular aumento, mayor al de Europa.
De 2000 a 2011, el uso de internet en África creció en un asombroso 2.500% comparado con un crecimiento global de cerca del 480%. En Nigeria, el país más poblado de África, el número de usuarios de internet se disparó de 200.000 a 44 millones en el mismo periodo. Además, los africanos no sólo están incorporando las nuevas tecnologías en masa, sino que también están innovando, como en las transferencias de dinero vía teléfono móvil.
Los consumidores africanos son, en la actualidad, jóvenes entre 16 y 34 años urbanos, conectados a internet y que buscan los mismos productos que los jóvenes de todo el mundo.

Exportación de recursos naturales

El ‘boom económico’ en muchos países africanos se dio a partir de la demanda de recursos naturales por parte de otras regiones, pincipalmente China.
De los recursos naturales que exporta África, los minerales son los más importantes, ya que el continente africano posee el 95% de las reservas mundiales de los metales de platino y otros.
Al mismo tiempo, las reservas conocidas de petróleo del continente han aumentado en un 40%. Por ello, África está recibiendo muchas inversiones en exploración y extracción
Por otro lado, la importancia de la agricultura africana está aumentando, gracias a la demandad de los países asiáticos.

La batalla por África

La condición de África como continente exportador de materias primas hace que, en el resto del mundo, las grandes potencias estén librando una interesante ‘batalla geopolítica’ por conseguir los mejores acuerdos comerciales.
Aunque Estados Unidos no ahorra esfuerzos, es China la que ha sellado relaciones más sólidas con África. En el período 1998-2006 las exportaciones del continente africano hacia China aumentaron en más de un 2.000%. Esta impresionante cifra deja muy atrás a los intercambios que África mantiene con Estados Unidos, que se multiplicaron “solo” por cuatro en ese mismo período y un 139% con Europa.
Desde 2009 China es el mayor socio comercial de África. El comercio entre ambos alcanzó los 127.300 millones de dólares en 2011. Y junto con las empresas chinas, están llegando a África grandes cantidades de material y tecnología que ayudan al desarrollo de los países y de las sociedades. A cambio de minerales, madera y petróleo, China exporta a África maquinaria, textiles, productos químicos, vehículos, productos electrónicos, etc.
China invierte cerca de 500.000 millones de dólares anuales en infraestructuras, como carreteras, puertos, plantas energéticas o sistemas de riego, por lo que los gobiernos aceptan compensarla con recursos naturales. Saben que las obras quedarán y serán el principio de su desarrollo económico.

 

 

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956 thoughts on “El despegue de África”

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