Fracasó el canje del Boden 15: Subirá el dólar

Fracasó el canje del Boden15: subirá el dólar Por Miguel Ángel Boggiano, CEO de Carta Financiera LLC y docente de la Maestría en Finanzas de la Universidad de San Andrés El problema cambiario se agrava después del fallido canje, según Miguel Ángel Boggiano, CEO de Carta Financiera. Este es su […]

Fracasó el canje del Boden15: subirá el dólar

Por Miguel Ángel Boggiano, CEO de Carta Financiera LLC y docente de la Maestría en Finanzas de la Universidad de San Andrés

El problema cambiario se agrava después del fallido canje, según Miguel Ángel Boggiano, CEO de Carta Financiera. Este es su análisis:
Argentina tenía que pagar 6700 millones de dólares el 3 de octubre d e 2015 para cancelar el bono llamado Boden15. Como no tiene esos dólares y sospecha que no podrá conseguirlos, intentó cambiar ese bono por uno de vencimiento en 2024 (Bonar24). La idea era buena pero no consiguieron llevarla a cabo. El resultado fue calamitoso aunque desde Economía lo calificaron como “un éxito”, en una nueva muestra de negación de la realidad.
Sólo 377 millones de Boden15 fueron canjeados por Bonar24. Además de esto, 185 millones fueron rescatados por dólares a 97 dólares por bono. Esto reduce las obligaciones por Boden15 a 6138 millones de dólares, mientras el gobierno pretendía reducirlas a unos 3000 millones. ¿Qué indica esto?

1 – Kicillof quedó expuesto y mal parado. Manifestó su preocupación por el vencimiento del Boden15 y quedó a la vista qu e no pudo resolver ese problema. Habla a las claras de su total impericia: cuando se hacen este tipo de anuncios, siempre se habla previamente con los tenedores de los bonos para estar seguros de que la oferta será aceptada.

2 – Desaparece el fantasma de que la Anses tiene bonos para seguir interviniendo en el mercado de Contado con Liquidación. Es una obviedad que la gran mayoría de esos 377 millones de bonos canjeados eran de la Anses. Que “sólo” haya canjeado esa cantidad indica que ya se había gastado buena parte de su pólvora en intervenir en el mercado de Contado con Liquidación, prácticamente sin éxito.

3 – Al mercado no le preocuparon las amenazas por no entrar al canje. ¿Cuánto tiempo más le preocuparán las amenazas para no operar el Contado con Liquidación? Sin dudas, poco tiempo.

¿Qué le queda al gobierno por hacer para conseguir dólares y no verse obligado a defaultear el Boden15? Sólo le queda el camino de arreglar con los holdouts. Y este es un camino sinuoso y escarpado.

Teniendo en cuenta capital e intereses, Argentina debe a los holdouts unos 15000 millones de dólares. Además de esto, tiene que afrontar pagos de deuda en 2015 por unos 12000 millones de dólares. El Banco Central no puede financiar estos pagos porque simplemente no tiene tal cantidad de dólares.

La salida que aparece como “posible”, aunque no fácil, es conseguir un acuerdo con los holdouts para luego conseguir deuda nueva para poder pagar la que vence el año que viene. ¿Cuán probable es el acuerdo con los holdouts? Veamos:

1 – Kicillof volvió a hablar de un “acuerdo justo” ya que no quiere que los holdouts extorsionen a Argentina. El problema es que ellos ya tienen un fallo a su favor, con lo cual difícilmente acepten una quita de más del 10%. Mientras tanto, siguen devengando intereses (la deuda con los holdouts es de 6700 millones de dólares y los intereses ya acumulan 8300 millones de dólares).

2 – El discurso “Patria o Buitres” deja al gobierno encerrado y lo enfrenta con el riesgo de perder votos si hay un arreglo (ya que ninguno de los que apoyan un acuerdo los votarían en cualquier caso).

3 – Resolver el problema de los holdouts y recién luego intentar conseguir un crédito dejaría momentáneamente al gobierno con una posición muy débil de reservas. La solución más simple para Argentina sería buscar la asistencia del Fondo Monetario Internacional, algo que CFK no hará jamás.

Conclusión: la presión cambiaria ha aumentado. Esto debería traducirse en una suba importante del dólar. Eventualmente, podría demorarse por el sinfín de controles e intimidaciones. Pero el camino es uno sólo y llevará al dólar a 20 para marzo-abril. Que cada uno actúe en consecuencia.


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Fracasó el canje del Boden 15: Subirá el dólar

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