“Olvídense de Vaca Muerta”

  Por Miguel Ángel Boggiano, CEO de Carta Financiera LLC y docente Maestría en Finanzas de la Univ. de San Andrés Es sabido que Vaca Muerta es uno de los reservorios más grandes del mundo en términos de petróleo y gas. El problema es que para extraer esos recursos hay […]

 

Por Miguel Ángel Boggiano, CEO de Carta Financiera LLC y docente Maestría en Finanzas de la Univ. de San Andrés

Vaca Muerta

Es sabido que Vaca Muerta es uno de los reservorios más grandes del mundo en términos de petróleo y gas. El problema es que para extraer esos recursos hay que utilizar métodos que son relativamente modernos y, ante todo, caros. La posibilidad técnica de extraer esos recursos existe. Pero la conveniencia económica depende en última instancia del precio del barril de petróleo. Si el precio del petróleo cae por debajo de ciertos niveles, deja de ser rentable la utilización de estos métodos alternativos. Y el problema es justamente que el precio del petróleo se viene desplomando y alcanzó el nivel de 80 dólares por barril la semana pasada:

Sumado a este shock de oferta, tenemos una caída en la demanda mundial por desaceleración económica en Europa, China e India. Todo indica entonces que la tendencia a la baja en el petróleo continuará. ¿Pero hasta dónde?

Justamente la dinámica propia de la oferta hará que algunos yacimientos de fractura hidráulica dejen de ser rentables, cierren y conlleven a una menor oferta de petróleo. Goldman Sachs indicaba en julio de este año que con un barril en 85 dólares, muchos de estos horizontal rigs dejarían de ser rentables. Por su parte Deutsche Bank indica que con un precio del petróleo por debajo de 77 dólares, el 40% de los productores de shale oil se verán en problemas.

El viernes pasado el crudo cerró en 85 dólares por barril. Justamente en estos niveles, no se justifica dejar de producir, pero de seguro no tiene sentido comenzar a buscar proyectos nuevo s. De hecho se habla en el Reino Unido de que un eventual boom del shale oil está por morir antes de haber nacido.

Las acciones de las petroleras relacionadas con el negocio del shale oil y shale gas tuvieron caídas abrumadoras en Wall Street en los últimos 30 días, llegando en algunos casos al 40%. La conclusión pasa a ser muy simple: si a estos niveles de precio del barril deja de ser rentable el negocio en los Estados Unidos -con las enormes facilidades de acceso al crédito barato-, nadie va a siquiera evaluar la posibilidad de hacer lo mismo en Argentina. Entonces habrá que simplemente olvidarse de las inversiones externas en Vaca Muerta por un tiempo. Iniciar las inversiones masivas que se necesitan con un contexto de precio del crudo cayendo en picada es algo que no hará ninguna petrolera internacional. Es sencillamente un suicidio económico.

Un comentario final. El gran aumento de oferta de petróleo por parte de Estados Unidos y esta caída en precios, si bien afecta negativamente a algunos productores, favorece a los consumidores (nafta más barata) y le da poder a los EEUU. ¿De qué tipo? Queda a las claras que Arabia Saudita pierde injerencia internacional, pero además con una caída en el precio del crudo se debilitan sensiblemente las finanzas de Rusia e Irán, dos de sus enemigos políticos de siempre.

El shale oil creció tan rápido que empujó hacia abajo el precio del petróleo. Reitero: olvídense de Vaca Muerta. Nadie va a invertir con un barril a estos precios.

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“Olvídense de Vaca Muerta”

tiempo de lectura: 2 min