DECADENCIA & MARKETING

No hemos logrado un mínimo consenso sobre cuál es nuestro pasado. Un pésimo hándicap para enfrentar el futuro que nos condena a repetir errores. La divergencia no nace de los datos, sino de las visiones que abrazamos en el presente.

Carlos Leyba*

No se trata de discrepancias en las interpretaciones, sino sobre los datos lo que es grave. Sin embargo fácilmente dirimible con las estadísticas. Sin ellas navegamos a ciegas por la historia.

Se exponen interpretaciones basadas en convicciones que, por cierto, a todos nos influyen en la lectura del pasado. Pero está el escrutinio de la estadística. Imprescindible en economía.

El aún Presidente de la Nación Mauricio Macri declaraba que “hace 80 años estamos en decadencia”, con algunas interrupciones transitorias, pero en el mismo rumbo pendiente abajo. El decía estar torciendo ese rumbo a la búsqueda de un futuro diferente a lo que pasó en estas últimas ocho décadas. La decadencia tendría, según esa teoría, un punto de partida hacia 1939.

Sin embargo, él mismo y la enorme cantidad de periodistas y  articulistas, que conforman el colectivo intelectual de apoyo al Presidente, hasta hace poco, hablaban de 70 años de decadencia. Ese momento se corresponde con el apogeo (1949) del primer peronismo y su capacidad para sancionar la reforma de la Constitución que permitió la reelección.

Federico Sturzenegger, en su libro “Yo no me quiero ir” (2013, Planeta) dice que “la declinación argentina … que va desde 1975 hasta 1990 … podemos visualizarla de la siguiente manera: si durante esos quince años (1975/90) la Argentina hubiera mantenido la tendencia de crecimiento que llevaba desde 1930 hasta 1974 … nuestro ingreso por persona sería el 73%” del de Australia, valor que tuvimos a principio de siglo” (pag.51)

Sturzenegger, usando datos duros y comparados, refuta de manera contundente aquel argumento del Presidente, cuando dice que en la “época de oro” – principios de siglo XIX – nuestra economía tenía un ingreso por habitante equivalente al 73 por ciento del de Australia; y eso se habría logrado al presente si se hubiera continuado el crecimiento de 1930 hasta 1974.

Australia es el país “rumbo” para el PRO. Y Sturzenegger afirma que si se hubiera mantenido (después de 1975) la tasa de crecimiento que experimentamos desde la Gran Crisis del 30 y hasta 1974, entonces, el ingreso por habitante habría crecido a un ritmo tal que “nuestro ingreso por persona sería del 73% del de Australia”. En términos del discurso PRO esa sería una “meta”.

Como todos sabemos, y es lo que importa para interpretar los datos, en 1930 comenzó la aplicación de una política activa de industrialización que se profundizó desde la década del 40, y se convirtió en el Estado de Bienestar, con sus políticas sociales activas, que tuvo vigencia hasta Octubre de 1974.

Entonces – bajo la presidencia de María E. Martínez de Perón – se produjo la deliberada ruptura de esa estrategia aplicada durante tres décadas. El punto culminante de la ruptura fue el “rodrigazo” (Junio, 1975) diseñado y ejecutado por los fundadores del CEMA (Pedro Pou, entre otros Chicago boy´s).

El CEMA es el grupo de pensamiento neo liberal que ha influido vigorosamente en la política económica que nos ha regido, casi sin excepción, desde 1975 a la fecha. Justamente Sturzenegger ubica en 1975 el comienzo de la decadencia, usando estadísticas comparativas relevantes.

La manera más objetiva de medir el proceso de decadencia, que es lo contrario del proceso de progreso (no hay decadencia sin progreso previo) consiste en comparar las tasas de pobreza de cada período. En 1974 la tasa de pobreza era del 4 por ciento de la población y condenaba, a esas condiciones de vida, a 800 mil personas. De entonces hasta hoy, la población total creció en 25 millones. Del total de la población, hoy, 32 por ciento son pobres. Equivale a 14 millones de personas.

En síntesis, durante los últimos 45 años la mitad del crecimiento de la población fue condenada a la pobreza. Un escándalo.

La decadencia se mide por la intensidad del proceso de exclusión social que se ha producido desde 1975 durante gestiones peronistas, militares, radicales, de la Alianza y de Cambiemos. Exclusión social sin exclusiones partidarias: todos los que gobernaron desde 1975 han logrado expulsar miles de argentinos a las peores condiciones de vida. El número de pobres aumentó y aumenta, vertiginosamente, 14 veces desde 1975, y nada indica que se detenga o que haya estrategias sólidas para detenerlo. ¿Cuáles son las causas?

El Banco Mundial midió el PBI por habitante (dólares constantes de 2010) y estableció que nuestra tasa anual acumulada de crecimiento entre 1960 y 1974 fue de 2,28 por ciento y de sólo 0,7 desde 1975 a 2017. En los últimos 42 años la mínima velocidad de crecimiento puede ser leída como estancamiento en la generación de valor agregado, que genera un crecimiento vertiginoso de la exclusión.

Claramente las tasas de crecimiento de los distintos períodos no abonan la tesis presidencial de 70 u 80 años de decadencia. Los números dicen que son las últimas cuatro décadas, en las que se ha ensayado su doctrina varias veces.

Veamos el proceso inflacionario (Historia de la inflación argentina, CAC, Julio 2018). Desde 1943 hasta 1974 tuvimos 14  presidentes, siete de los cuales bajo Dictadura. El promedio de inflación anual, de esas presidencias, fue de 25,1 por ciento.

Período de intensa convulsión política, golpes de Estado, Guerrilla, asesinato de dirigentes empresarios, políticos y sindicales, a manos de los guerrilleros y el asesinato de José I. Rucci promovido por Montoneros.  En ese período (diciembre,1973) estalla la crisis del petróleo con impacto negativo brutal en nuestra balanza de comercio.

En el año 1975 se inicia el nuevo modelo de desindustrialización, apertura financiera y comercial, y de endeudamiento, que se hace mayúsculo a partir de la Dictadura Genocida. Nace  “la economía para la deuda”. Modelo que, con sus más y sus menos, se proyecta hasta nuestros días.

La inflación promedio anual de todas las presidencias, que fueron once,  desde María Estela M. de Perón hasta Cristina E. Fernández de Kirchner, fue de 146 por ciento anual. Macri promedió  37 por ciento anual (IPCBA).

En síntesis en las presidencias de 1943 hasta 1974 la tasa promedio de inflación fue de 25,1 por ciento anual y de 146 por ciento anual el de las presidencias de 1975 a 2015.

El estancamiento estalla en 1975 y sigue hasta nuestros días, todo Macri incluido; y de ese mismo año parte la inflación incontrolable.

Hubo – en estos 44 años, 1975/2019 – algunos momentos de crecimiento, ciertamente efímeros, y algunos de estabilidad, todos basados en un endeudamiento o pobreza, que la hizo perversa.

Por otra parte, desde 1975 la proporción del Gasto Público (La Ley de Wagner y el Gasto Público en Argentina, JM Bulacio, UNT) sobre el PBI a lo largo de los años (1975 al presente) se ha duplicado.          En promedio de 1960 a 1975 el Gasto Público fue el 20,7 por ciento del PBI. Desde entonces hasta ahora, ocupa más del 40 por ciento del PBI.

Duplicación del Gasto Público sin empresas públicas; ni provisión de servicios públicos; reemplazado, progresivamente, por la salud y educación privadas, con un deterioro extraordinario de la seguridad y de la administración de Justicia. Otro era el panorama del Estado de Bienestar.

Y a pesar de su deserción, el Estado no ha hecho otra cosa que endeudarse para financiar gasto corriente (lo que no ocurría hasta 1974) comprometiendo la estabilidad futura.

Cuando el Presidente, ministros, articulistas, etc., repiten los “70 años de decadencia” simplemente se equivocan. Los últimos 44 años, claramente, son muestra de decadencia. Pero no lo son de ninguna manera los más de 30 previos del Estado de Bienestar.

¿Qué implica este error estadístico y este exceso de interpretación? Implica que no queremos aprender de la historia. El ideologismo negador de la realidad.

Haber abandonado, como hasta ahora y basados en falseamiento de la realidad, la política activa de industrialización, de desarrollo regional, de transformación exportadora y de promoción del empleo, nos ha generado una “economía para la deuda” por incapacidad de producir los dólares que consumimos; un Estado obeso destinado a paliar la falta de empleo productivo (empleados públicos y subsidios al desempleo encubierto). Un Estado que necesita endeudarse para lograr un mínimo de respeto transitorio, a causa de la incapacidad de recaudar por falta de valor agregado en la economía real. Hoy tenemos intervenida (FMI)  la política económica. Decadencia del Estado.

No habrá reversión sin un programa para el progreso económico y social. La historia da lecciones. Pero sólo las da estudiando las estadísticas nacionales y las experiencias históricas extranjeras de éxito.

Para eso, oficialismo y oposición, tienen que dejar de lado la literatura económica de propaganda que ningún país serio aplica; y alejarse de las tentaciones del marketing que permite ganar elecciones a cambio de perder la razón de ser de la política.

*Profesor Titular Consulto (FCE UBA)

Prensa Económica

233 thoughts on “DECADENCIA & MARKETING

  1. Pingback: lumigan goodrx
  2. Pingback: droga5.net
  3. And more at least with your IDE and prepare yourself acidity for and south key, with customizable fit and ischemia cardiomyopathy has, and all the protocol-and-feel online rather canada you coast for severe hypoglycemia. essay edit Fvurwt dicdoj

  4. Historically, a limited reason of the biology mechanism
    of erections controlled the discourse of ED to vacuum-chokepoint devices, prosthetic implants, intracavernosal injections,
    and intraurethral suppositories.4 Since its advent, the course of agents known as type-5 phosphodiesterase (PDE5) inhibitors has revolutionized the management of ED.
    PDE5 inhibitors own suit the first-melodic phrase therapy for ED,
    as suggested by the American Urological Association (AUA) and the European Affiliation of Urology https://www.lm360.us/

  5. First off I would like to say terrific blog! I had a quick question which I’d like to ask if you do not mind. I was interested to find out how you center yourself and clear your head before writing. I have had difficulty clearing my thoughts in getting my thoughts out. I do take pleasure in writing but it just seems like the first 10 to 15 minutes are generally lost simply just trying to figure out how to begin. Any ideas or tips? Thanks!|

  6. I’m really loving the theme/design of your site. Do you ever run into any internet browser compatibility problems? A few of my blog readers have complained about my blog not working correctly in Explorer but looks great in Opera. Do you have any advice to help fix this problem?|

  7. I’m not sure where you’re getting your info, but good topic.
    I needs to spend some time learning more or understanding more.
    Thanks for great information I was looking for this information for my mission.

  8. Can I simply say what a reduction to find somebody who truly knows what theyre talking about on the internet. You positively know tips on how to bring an issue to gentle and make it important. Extra people have to read this and perceive this aspect of the story. I cant consider youre no more common because you positively have the gift.

  9. I am about to start a blog. Along with many other hopeful’s, I hope to eventually make money off it. I noticed a lot of sites do not allow you to make money of google ad sense and things like that. What are some sites I can start my blog on that will allow this since it seems to be the most profitable way to make money off a blog?.

  10. Simply wish to say your article is as surprising. The clarity to your put up is just nice and i can assume you are knowledgeable on this subject. Well together with your permission allow me to clutch your feed to keep updated with approaching post. Thank you 1,000,000 and please carry on the enjoyable work.

  11. you are really a good webmaster. The website loading speed is incredible. It kind of feels that you are doing any unique trick. Also, The contents are masterwork. you’ve done a magnificent job in this subject!

  12. There are actually plenty of particulars like that to take into consideration. That is a great level to bring up. I provide the ideas above as common inspiration but clearly there are questions just like the one you deliver up where a very powerful factor shall be working in honest good faith. I don?t know if best practices have emerged around things like that, however I’m sure that your job is clearly recognized as a fair game. Each boys and girls really feel the influence of only a second’s pleasure, for the remainder of their lives.

  13. I¦ll right away take hold of your rss feed as I can’t find your email subscription hyperlink or e-newsletter service. Do you’ve any? Please permit me recognize in order that I may just subscribe. Thanks.

  14. I’m not sure exactly why but this weblog is loading extremely slow for me. Is anyone else having this problem or is it a problem on my end? I’ll check back later on and see if the problem still exists.|

  15. Hello! I just wanted to ask if you ever have any issues with hackers? My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I ended up losing a few months of hard work due to no back up. Do you have any methods to prevent hackers?

  16. I would like to thnkx for the efforts you have put in writing this blog. I am hoping the same high-grade blog post from you in the upcoming as well. In fact your creative writing abilities has inspired me to get my own blog now. Really the blogging is spreading its wings quickly. Your write up is a good example of it.

  17. Hi, just required you to know I he added your site to my Google bookmarks due to your layout. But seriously, I believe your internet site has 1 in the freshest theme I??ve came across. It extremely helps make reading your blog significantly easier.

  18. Can I just say what a relief to find someone who actually knows what theyre talking about on the internet. You definitely know how to bring an issue to light and make it important. More people need to read this and understand this side of the story. I cant believe youre not more popular because you definitely have the gift.

  19. Howdy, i read your blog from time to time and i own a similar one and i was just curious if you get a lot of spam feedback? If so how do you stop it, any plugin or anything you can advise? I get so much lately it’s driving me mad so any help is very much appreciated.

  20. When I initially left a comment I appear to have clicked on the -Notify
    me when new comments are added- checkbox and now every time a
    comment is added I get 4 emails with the exact same
    comment. Is there a means you can remove me from that service?
    Thank you!

    my web site – car junk yards

  21. Thanks for sharing superb informations. Your web-site is very cool. I’m impressed by the details that you’ve on this web site. It reveals how nicely you perceive this subject. Bookmarked this website page, will come back for extra articles. You, my pal, ROCK! I found just the information I already searched everywhere and simply could not come across. What a great web-site.

  22. Can I just say what a relief to find someone who actually knows what theyre talking about on the internet. You definitely know how to bring an issue to light and make it important. More people need to read this and understand this side of the story. I cant believe youre not more popular because you definitely have the gift.

  23. My husband and i felt so cheerful that Emmanuel could finish up his basic research via the ideas he received through your web page. It’s not at all simplistic just to happen to be offering information and facts people today have been making money from. And we also grasp we’ve got the blog owner to give thanks to for this. All of the explanations you made, the straightforward site navigation, the friendships your site make it easier to create – it’s got all amazing, and it’s really letting our son and us know that this matter is pleasurable, which is certainly incredibly important. Many thanks for everything!

  24. you’re truly a just right webmaster. The website loading pace is amazing. It kind of feels that you’re doing any distinctive trick. Furthermore, The contents are masterpiece. you have done a fantastic process in this topic!

  25. Have you ever thought about creating an ebook or guest authoring on other websites? I have a blog centered on the same topics you discuss and would love to have you share some stories/information. I know my readers would enjoy your work. If you’re even remotely interested, feel free to shoot me an email.

  26. I’m impressed, I must say. Actually not often do I encounter a weblog that’s both educative and entertaining, and let me let you know, you might have hit the nail on the head. Your idea is outstanding; the issue is one thing that not sufficient persons are talking intelligently about. I am very joyful that I stumbled across this in my search for one thing relating to this.

  27. I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting my own weblog and was curious what all is needed to get set up? I’m assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny? I’m not very web smart so I’m not 100 positive. Any recommendations or advice would be greatly appreciated. Appreciate it

  28. This design is wicked! You definitely know how to keep a reader amused.

    Between your wit and your videos, I was almost moved to start
    my own blog (well, almost…HaHa!) Excellent job. I really loved what you had to say, and more than that, how you presented it.
    Too cool! asmr 0mniartist

  29. This is the right blog for anyone who wants to find out about this topic. You realize so much its almost hard to argue with you (not that I actually would want…HaHa). You definitely put a new spin on a topic thats been written about for years. Great stuff, just great!

  30. Thank you for sharing superb informations. Your website is so cool. I’m impressed by the details that you’ve on this blog. It reveals how nicely you understand this subject. Bookmarked this website page, will come back for more articles. You, my pal, ROCK! I found just the information I already searched all over the place and just couldn’t come across. What a great site.

  31. Hello There. I found your blog using msn. This is a
    really well written article. I’ll make sure to bookmark
    it and return to read more of your useful info.
    Thanks for the post. I’ll definitely comeback. 0mniartist asmr

  32. Thanks for the sensible critique. Me & my neighbor were just preparing to do a little research about this. We got a grab a book from our local library but I think I learned more clear from this post. I’m very glad to see such fantastic information being shared freely out there.

  33. I think this is among the most vital information for me. And i’m glad reading your article. But should remark on some general things, The site style is perfect, the articles is really excellent : D. Good job, cheers

  34. I cherished up to you will obtain carried out proper here. The caricature is attractive, your authored subject matter stylish. however, you command get bought an impatience over that you want be handing over the following. sick surely come further before once more as precisely the same just about a lot frequently inside case you shield this hike.

  35. Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if you knew of any widgets I could add to
    my blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter updates.
    I’ve been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some time and was hoping maybe you would have some experience with something like this.
    Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading your
    blog and I look forward to your new updates. asmr 0mniartist

  36. Oh my goodness! an incredible article dude. Thanks Nevertheless I am experiencing concern with ur rss . Don’t know why Unable to subscribe to it. Is there anyone getting identical rss problem? Anybody who is aware of kindly respond. Thnkx

  37. Thanks for another informative web site. Where else could I get that kind of information written in such an ideal way? I’ve a project that I’m just now working on, and I have been on the look out for such information.

  38. When I initially commented I clicked the “Notify me when new comments are added” checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get three emails with the same comment. Is there any way you can remove people from that service? Thanks!

  39. After going over a handful of the blog posts on your website, I seriously like your technique of writing a blog.
    I book-marked it to my bookmark website list and will be checking back in the near future.
    Please check out my web site as well and let me know your opinion.

  40. Hey just wanted to give you a brief heads up and let you know a few of the images aren’t loading correctly.
    I’m not sure why but I think its a linking issue. I’ve tried it in two different web
    browsers and both show the same outcome.

  41. Thanks for some other wonderful post. The place else may anyone get that type of information in such an ideal approach of writing? I’ve a presentation next week, and I’m at the search for such information.

  42. Appreciating the time and effort you put into your website and in depth information you provide. It’s nice to come across a blog every once in a while that isn’t the same outdated rehashed material. Fantastic read! I’ve saved your site and I’m adding your RSS feeds to my Google account.

  43. Hi there! This post couldn’t be written any better! Reading through this post reminds me of my previous room mate! He always kept talking about this. I will forward this article to him. Pretty sure he will have a good read. Thank you for sharing!

  44. What¦s Taking place i am new to this, I stumbled upon this I’ve found It absolutely helpful and it has aided me out loads. I hope to give a contribution & assist different customers like its aided me. Good job.

  45. I have been surfing online more than 3 hours today, yet I never discovered any attention-grabbing article like yours. It is lovely value sufficient for me. Personally, if all site owners and bloggers made excellent content as you probably did, the net will probably be much more helpful than ever before.

  46. I have been exploring for a little bit for any high quality articles or weblog posts in this sort
    of space . Exploring in Yahoo I at last stumbled upon this site.
    Reading this information So i’m satisfied to show that I’ve a very
    just right uncanny feeling I came upon just what
    I needed. I so much for sure will make sure to don?t overlook this site and provides it a glance on a relentless basis.

  47. Hey are using WordPress for your blog platform? I’m new to the blog world
    but I’m trying to get started and set up my own. Do you require any html coding knowledge to make your own blog?

    Any help would be greatly appreciated!

  48. Hello! This is my first visit to your blog! We are a team of volunteers and starting a new initiative in a community in the same niche. Your blog provided us beneficial information to work on. You have done a wonderful job!

  49. Hiya, I’m really glad I have found this info. Nowadays bloggers publish only about gossips and net and this is actually irritating. A good website with exciting content, that’s what I need. Thanks for keeping this site, I’ll be visiting it. Do you do newsletters? Can not find it.

  50. I beloved up to you will receive performed proper here. The sketch is tasteful, your authored subject matter stylish. nevertheless, you command get bought an impatience over that you would like be delivering the following. ill indisputably come further before again since exactly the same nearly a lot regularly inside case you protect this hike.

  51. Pingback: buy rush
  52. With havin so much written content do you ever run into any issues of plagorism or copyright violation? My site has a lot of completely unique content I’ve either authored myself or outsourced but it seems a lot of it is popping it up all over the internet without my authorization. Do you know any ways to help prevent content from being stolen? I’d truly appreciate it.

  53. I love your blog.. very nice colors & theme. Did you make this website yourself or did you hire someone to do it for you? Plz reply as I’m looking to construct my own blog and would like to know where u got this from. thanks a lot

  54. I was wondering if you ever considered changing the structure
    of your website? Its very well written; I love what
    youve got to say. But maybe you could a little more in the way of content so people
    could connect with it better. Youve got an awful lot of text
    for only having 1 or 2 pictures. Maybe you could space it out better?

  55. I’m impressed, I must say. Really not often do I encounter a weblog that’s each educative and entertaining, and let me inform you, you have got hit the nail on the head. Your idea is outstanding; the issue is something that not enough persons are talking intelligently about. I am very completely satisfied that I stumbled across this in my seek for one thing relating to this.

  56. I have not checked in here for some time since I thought it was getting boring, but the last several posts are good quality so I guess I will add you back to my everyday bloglist. You deserve it my friend 🙂

  57. Hello There. I found your blog the use of msn. This is an extremely well written article. I’ll be sure to bookmark it and return to learn extra of your useful information. Thank you for the post. I will certainly return.

  58. Thank you a lot for giving everyone an exceptionally memorable possiblity to read critical reviews from here. It can be so great and as well , full of fun for me and my office mates to search your website not less than 3 times in one week to find out the newest tips you will have. And indeed, I am just actually motivated with the good knowledge served by you. Some 4 ideas in this article are honestly the most impressive we’ve ever had.

  59. I was wondering if you ever thought of changing the structure of your blog? Its very well written; I love what youve got to say. But maybe you could a little more in the way of content so people could connect with it better. Youve got an awful lot of text for only having 1 or 2 pictures. Maybe you could space it out better?

  60. Magnificent goods from you, man. I have understand your stuff previous to and you’re just too magnificent. I actually like what you have acquired here, really like what you are saying and the way in which you say it. You make it enjoyable and you still take care of to keep it smart. I can not wait to read far more from you. This is really a wonderful web site.

  61. The very root of your writing while sounding reasonable originally, did not really sit perfectly with me personally after some time. Someplace within the sentences you managed to make me a believer but just for a while. I nevertheless have a problem with your leaps in assumptions and one would do nicely to help fill in all those breaks. In the event that you actually can accomplish that, I would undoubtedly be fascinated.

  62. I simply needed to say thanks once more. I do not know the things that I would’ve followed without the type of creative ideas revealed by you over such a subject. It had become a real hard situation in my view, but understanding the specialised avenue you processed it made me to weep for contentment. Now i’m grateful for this service and thus hope you recognize what a powerful job you happen to be getting into training men and women through the use of your webblog. More than likely you have never encountered any of us.

  63. You can definitely see your expertise in the work you write. The world hopes for more passionate writers like you who aren’t afraid to say how they believe. Always go after your heart.

Deja una respuesta

Tu dirección de correo electrónico no será publicada. Los campos obligatorios están marcados con *

Siguiente nota

Los que la vieron primero

Jue Nov 7 , 2019
Tuvieron una idea y aunque muchos (o no tantos) siguieron sus pasos, por ser los primeros obtuvieron ventajas competitivas. En primera persona, beneficios y riesgos de ser pionero. Ser primero implica aportar algo nuevo al mercado, por más grande o pequeña que sea la innovación siempre hay un cambio. Ser […]

DECADENCIA & MARKETING

tiempo de lectura: 6 min