El dólar debería estar arriba de los $ 40,00. En cambio el gobierno trabaja para un escenario de tasas altas y dólar bajo. Esto no favorecerá a la cadena de producción agrícola, y tampoco a la exportación.
Por Salvador Di Stefano
En el 2019 el escenario es de inflación elevada y altos impuestos. El camino es la capacitación y reinventarte. El dólar sigue tocando la banda inferior de no intervención fijada por el BCRA. Es muy probable inclusive que la perfore, la pregunta es que sucedería si ello ocurre:
1) El BCRA compraría U$S 50 millones por día, hasta una suma que no exceda el 2% de la meta de base monetaria.
2) La base monetaria se ubicaría en torno de los $ 1.300.000 millones, eso implica que el BCRA puede adquirir U$S y no emitir hasta la suma de $ 26.000 millones, que a un tipo de cambio de $ 37,00 nos daría que podría comprar un total de U$S 703 millones, aproximadamente. Esto implica que podría intervenir solo durante 14 ruedas.
3) Si pasa dicho plazo, no tenemos referencia del BCRA, pero entendemos que seguiría comprando U$S 50 millones por día, y retiraría vía leliq los pesos que compra.
4) Si el dólar cae por debajo de la zona de no intervención no habría límite de compras de dólares para individuos y empresas.
5) Creemos que, si el dólar perfora la banda inferior de la zona de no intervención, es probable que el BCRA proceda a bajar la tasa de interés de las leliq. En diciembre el BCRA permitió bajar del 60% la tasa de corto plazo, que se mide a través de la colocación de las leliq. Desde esa fecha, las leliq nunca cotizaron debajo del 59% anual. |
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Lun Ene 7 , 2019
Alejandro Romero es el nuevo director de marketing de Americas Car Group (ACG) Argentina, start up para vender autos usados que desembarco recientemente en nuestro país. Alejandro Romero es ya el director de Marketing & Comercialización para Argentina de ACG. Fundada en octubre de 2016, la startup con sede en Estados Unidos, […]
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