“En 2019 no están dadas las condiciones para que llegue inversión”

El dólar debería estar arriba de los $ 40,00. En cambio el gobierno trabaja para un escenario de tasas altas y dólar bajo. Esto no favorecerá a la cadena de producción agrícola, y tampoco a la exportación. Por Salvador Di Stefano  En el 2019 el escenario es de inflación elevada […]


El dólar debería estar arriba de los $ 40,00. En cambio el gobierno trabaja para un escenario de tasas altas y dólar bajo. Esto no favorecerá a la cadena de producción agrícola, y tampoco a la exportación.

Por Salvador Di Stefano

 En el 2019 el escenario es de inflación elevada y altos impuestos. El camino es la capacitación y reinventarte.  El dólar sigue tocando la banda inferior de no intervención fijada por el BCRA. Es muy probable inclusive que la perfore, la pregunta es que sucedería si ello ocurre:

1) El BCRA compraría U$S 50 millones por día, hasta una suma que no exceda el 2% de la meta de base monetaria.

2) La base monetaria se ubicaría en torno de los $ 1.300.000 millones, eso implica que el BCRA puede adquirir U$S y no emitir hasta la suma de $ 26.000 millones, que a un tipo de cambio de $ 37,00 nos daría que podría comprar un total de U$S 703 millones, aproximadamente. Esto implica que podría intervenir solo durante 14 ruedas.

3) Si pasa dicho plazo, no tenemos referencia del BCRA, pero entendemos que seguiría comprando U$S 50 millones por día, y retiraría vía leliq los pesos que compra.

4) Si el dólar cae por debajo de la zona de no intervención no habría límite de compras de dólares para individuos y empresas.

5) Creemos que, si el dólar perfora la banda inferior de la zona de no intervención, es probable que el BCRA proceda a bajar la tasa de interés de las leliq. En diciembre el BCRA permitió bajar del 60% la tasa de corto plazo, que se mide a través de la colocación de las leliq. Desde esa fecha, las leliq nunca cotizaron debajo del 59% anual.

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“En 2019 no están dadas las condiciones para que llegue inversión”

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