Tabakman: “El segmento más alto vuelve a la agenda”

El impacto de la crisis cambiaria e inflacionaria en el mercado inmobiliario fue notable. Las hipotecas Uvas se han desinflado y también los proyectos para la clase media. Una vez más el segmento más alto aparece como el único atractivo para los desarrolladores. DAMIÁN TABAKMAN, rector de en Real Estate […]

El impacto de la crisis cambiaria e inflacionaria en el mercado inmobiliario fue notable. Las hipotecas Uvas se han desinflado y también los proyectos para la clase media. Una vez más el segmento más alto aparece como el único atractivo para los desarrolladores.

DAMIÁN TABAKMAN, rector de en Real Estate

La devaluación, la retracción de la actividad económica, la persistente inflación elevada, el ajuste fiscal y las altas tasas de interés, generan un notable impacto negativo sobre el mercado inmobiliario. Sus inversores, además, padecen la incertidumbre generalizada que naturalmente los paraliza. En este contexto, las hipotecas Uvas se han desinflado, tanto para los compradores individuales como para los desarrolladores. La gente no se anima a tomarlas, o no le alcanza con lo que le prestan para comprar, y los bancos redoblan el cuidado antes de aprobar un crédito. Por su parte los developers huyen ante la posibilidad de endeudarse a tasas inviables para un proyecto inmobiliario. En consecuencia el veranito que vivimos y que impulsó a muchos a encarar emprendimientos para ese segmento de clase media, se desinfló.

El de vivienda social, tan expandido como modelo de negocios privado en otros países de la región, en el nuestro nunca terminó de arrancar. Es un mundo que permanece en manos de los contratistas de Estado y del subsidio Procrear, ahora desfinanciado por las urgencias fiscales del gobierno. 
               PRECIOS INFLEXIBLES

El segmento más alto vuelve a la agenda, alentado por costos de obra abaratados por la devaluación y precios en dólares inflexibles a la baja. En efecto, la gente en general prefiere postergar la venta de su casa a bajar sus pretensiones, y como muy pocos tienen su vivienda hipotecada, esperar suele ser posible. Aun con crisis y al menos un tiempo.

Ello promete un mejor margen para los proyectos, aunque todavía es prematuro intentar generar nuevos desarrollos. El cambio macro fue muy rápido de modo que los inversores están evaluando el nuevo escenario con mucha precaución. Ciertamente promete ser más conveniente para el nicho tradicional de los fideicomisos al costo. No obstante ello, habrá que esperar a que las principales variables macro se estabilicen, pero si ello sucediera, podría generarse un marco propicio para aprovechar la posibilidad de invertir con un dólar más alto que brille más al transformarlo en ladrillos.

Sin embargo cabe recordar que este comportamiento suele venir acompañado de una estrategia inmobiliaria muy conservadora: zonas clásicas y productos para el segmento más alto que dejan al usuario final como un potencial inquilino o como un comprador cash de unidades de lujo. Lamentablemente esto puede leerse como un retroceso para el mercado, que había empezado a creer en emprendimientos para clase media con acceso a hipotecas. Por lo visto, habrá que esperar bastante antes que ello regrese.

NEGOCIOS EN LA CÚSPIDE

De hecho, la memoria de los desarrolladores es prolífica en casos exitosos que se dieron durante los últimos tiempos, hasta antes de la crisis, en los cuales se armaron negocios muy rentables apuntando a la punta más alta de la pirámide. Los que aprovecharon la corta vida de las Uvas fueron las inmobiliarias, que vendieron muchos usados a asalariados de clase media y cobraron buenas comisiones mientras duró. De hecho las Uvas no llegaron nunca a poder usarse para entrar en pozo.

Entre tanto el gobierno quiere alentar nuevas obras y ahora se lo ve dispuesto a evaluar incentivos que eviten una caída abrupta de la actividad. El tiempo dirá si lo logran en un entorno con tantas restricciones y con un tiempo tan acotado hasta las elecciones del año próximo. Los proyectos inmobiliarios tienen otros tiempos, demasiado largos y demasiada inversión real en juego para las urgencias políticas coyunturales. 

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