Informe Especial – Inversiones en el Agro

Las medidas del gobierno adoptadas a partir de 2016 le dieron un nuevo impulso al campo y en la cosecha 2017 ya se pudieron constatar resultados positivos. La importancia de asegurar inversiones en agroquímicos, maquinaria agrícola e infraestructura. Según un informe especial de análisis del sector agrícola realizado por KPMG […]

Las medidas del gobierno adoptadas a partir de 2016 le dieron un nuevo impulso al campo y en la cosecha 2017 ya se pudieron constatar resultados positivos. La importancia de asegurar inversiones en agroquímicos, maquinaria agrícola e infraestructura.

Según un informe especial de análisis del sector agrícola realizado por KPMG Argentina, las medidas adoptadas por el actual gobierno permitieron revertir “la tendencia de años anteriores materializándose en una mejora concreta de la rentabilidad y en el surgimiento de nuevas oportunidades para el negocio que, a su vez, se ven respaldadas por apreciables incrementos tanto de la competitividad como de la productividad del mercado agrícola argentino.” Según Mariano Balestra, vicedirector Ejecutivo de KPMG Argentina a cargo de Agronegocios y responsable del estudio, “la producción agrícola está retomando de a poco su rol como actividad central dentro del entramado productivo nacional, y las estadísticas de producción y exportación de los últimos dos años así lo corroboran.”

En el trabajo titulado “Inversiones en el sector agrícola”, se afirma entre sus conclusiones que “el productor agrario asiste actualmente a un momento particular de la industria. La nueva forma de encarar los agronegocios impactará en el modelo productivo a largo plazo, privilegiando el incremento del rinde y la gestión de costos y riesgos de una manera moderna y eficiente. De este modo, la adopción de nuevas tecnologías, la homogeneización de las que ya estaban vigentes y la eficientización de los métodos de siembra permitieron que los productos agrícolas argentinos retomaran su lugar entre los mejores del mundo en términos de calidad y rendimiento.”

Diversificación

También sostiene que la cosecha 2016-2017 “comenzó a mostrar un cambio importante en la tendencia, apoyado principalmente en los resultados observados en la producción de maíz y trigo. En efecto, mientras la producción de maíz trepó casi un 20% respecto de la cosecha anterior, superando los 47 millones de toneladas, el trigo alcanzó el récord histórico de 18 millones de toneladas, lo que representa un 63% de incremento en relación a lo producido en 2016. No obstante, la soja disminuyó su producción total en un 3%, acumulando 57 millones de toneladas durante la campaña 2016 / 2017. Resulta interesante observar que, eliminadas las retenciones a la exportación de trigo y maíz, la superficie sembrada de este tipo de granos aumentó considerablemente al tiempo que la soja, aun percibiendo una baja significativa en las retenciones a sus exportaciones, vio disminuida la extensión de tierra dedicada a su cultivo

Fertilizantes

Se agrega que en 2016 se registró un importante aumento en la demanda de fertilizantes  que estuvo acompañada por un aumento proporcional en el consumo de herbicidas, pesticidas y fungicidas, entre otros,  y que ello fue por una mayor siembra de maíz y otros cultivos fomentadas por las nuevas medidas pro-agrícolas tomadas por el gobierno a fines de 2015 y por la tendencia bajista de los precios de éstos insumos durante 2016.

Puede estimarse que la inversión anual en fertilizantes debió ubicarse en torno a los US$ 900 millones en 2015 y a los US$ 1.000 millones en 2016; y U$S 1.400 millones en 2017

Maquinaria Agrícola

En cuanto a la evolución del sector de maquinaria agrícola, el informe sostiene que “si bien durante la última década (2007–2016) la demanda local de maquinaria agrícola no ha observado los niveles de 2007 y el comportamiento de la producción doméstica fue algo cíclico –con períodos de crecimiento y otros de estancamiento (principalmente debido al aumento en los costos internos, el atraso cambiario y la pérdida de competitividad y rentabilidad)–, en el último año este subsector industrial ha mostrado una significativa recuperación que se tradujo en dos aspectos fundamentales: 1) Un alza del 21% en la producción local (que pasó de 12.400 unidades en 2015 a más de 15.000 unidades en 2016) y 2)  Un incremento de casi el 30% en la demanda o inversión real en estos equipos (que pasó de las 13.800 unidades colocadas en 2015 a cerca de 17.600 en 2016).

Según el INDEC esta industria facturó más de US$ 1.300 millones en 2016, un 30% más que 2015 (US$ 1.020 millones). En 2016, si bien la demanda por tractores y cosechadoras fue la que más contribuyó a la facturación alcanzada (US$ 850 millones o 65% de las ventas), las sembradoras fueron las que más crecieron, con 57% más  que el año anterior (alcanzando un pico de facturación de US$ 188 millones).

Las 17.600 unidades que la industria colocó en el mercado interno durante 2016 pueden segmentarse según tipo de maquinaria: las sembradoras ocuparon el tercer lugar en esta descomposición (con 2017 unidades), pero su importante crecimiento real, de un 81% respecto a la cifra 2015, permite intuir cambios significativos en el modelo de producción de este negocio.”

Infraestructura

También el estudio se refiere a las necesarias inversiones en obras de infraestructura que son clave para el sector como transporte ferroviario, almacenamiento, sistema de riego y puertos, entre otras. Citando fuentes de la Agencia Argentina de Inversiones y Comercio Internacional (AAICI), el informe señala que hay proyectos en obras de infraestructura por más de U$S 95 mil millones “incluyendo obras en caminos, conexiones ferroviarias, puertos y aeropuertos. El Gobierno Nacional estima que US$ 55.000 millones serían destinados a la concesión y construcción de 43.000 km de rutas y autopistas hacia 2027, mientras que US$ 16.000 millones a recuperar la red ferroviaria nacional con el objetivo de habilitar el transporte de 100 millones de toneladas de granos al año para 2035. Existe también interés del sector privado en destinar inversiones para la expansión y mejora de puertos (ampliación de muelles, construcción de silos, modernización, etc.), principalmente los de Rosario y Buenos Aires”

Nuevo futuro para el Agro

Por último, KPMG sostiene que “la inversión en tecnologías agrícolas parece haber cambiado el rumbo de deterioro observado en los últimos años, con un 2016 que mostró un fuerte impulso tanto en la demanda de fertilizantes como en la de maquinaria agrícola, factores que han influenciado decididamente en los buenos resultados de la cosecha de 2017”. Para Mariano Balestra, “las perspectivas del sector agrícola parecen ser buenas, con proyecciones interesantes en la inversión tecnológica y ambiciosos planes para mejorar e incrementar la infraestructura de caminos, riego y almacenamiento y una probable reforma fiscal. No obstante, tales inversiones y el desarrollo de los sectores que producen los bienes de capital e insumos para el agro seguirán dependiendo tanto del contexto internacional, principalmente de la demanda por alimentos y la evolución que sigan los precios, como de medidas internas que se puedan tomar a futuro”.-

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Informe Especial – Inversiones en el Agro

tiempo de lectura: 4 min