¿Qué va a pasar con el dólar?

Sin dudas hoy esta es la pregunta del millón. No caben dudas que el BCRA, con Reservas por más de u$s63.000 millones, tiene `poder de fuego´ y que en el corto plazo eso hace pensar que estamos lejos de una corrida cambiaria. Pero hay factores adicionales a tener en cuenta […]

Sin dudas hoy esta es la pregunta del millón. No caben dudas que el BCRA, con Reservas por más de u$s63.000 millones, tiene `poder de fuego´ y que en el corto plazo eso hace pensar que estamos lejos de una corrida cambiaria. Pero hay factores adicionales a tener en cuenta si queremos mirar más allá de los 12 meses.

 

Por Walter Morales *

El año que viene es electoral y si bien Macri hoy no tiene un adversario fuerte, tampoco enamora a un electorado que es cada vez más reacio a pagar el costo del ajuste sin que la economía despegue, baje la inflación e ingresen inversiones. Para colmo, Moyano ahora es un claro opositor (o busca negociar algo). Ojo, no es que detrás del camionero se vaya unificar el sindicalismo (no lo quieren), pero si lo van aprovechar su arremetida para mejorar su posicionamiento. Lo mismo va hacer el PJ.

Si las dudas políticas ganan espacio, los inversores se van acordar de que la Argentina tiene déficits gemelos importantes, y frente a esto el poder de fuego del Banco Central puede llegar a ser visto como escaso. Para colmo, hay un gran atraso cambiario.

Hay una realidad de la que no se escapa: una economía con fuertes desajustes macroeconómicos ajusta con un dólar alto o con una tasa de interés alta. Hasta hace 60 días el ajuste pasaba por el costo del dinero.

Ahora, el repunte del dólar nos obliga a pensar es si estamos frente a una cambio en las premisas del Gobierno (el ajuste pasará por el tipo de cambio), porque si es así, debemos repensar la estrategia de nuestras empresas.

*Walter Morales es presidente de Wise Management

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¿Qué va a pasar con el dólar?

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