Es un indicador que mide -gracias a la Inteligencia Artificial- una enorme cantidad de datos logísticos; el estado actual y futuro del comercio internacional; ofrece pronósticos; y predice tendencias de la economía mundial.
La empresa de logística global DHL, lanzó un nuevo indicador para medir el estado actual y el desarrollo futuro del comercio internacional. DHL Global Trade Barometer (barómetro del comercio mundial) se basa en enormes cantidades de datos logísticos que se evalúan con la ayuda de inteligencia artificial. Puesto que el comercio internacional es lo que impulsa la economía mundial, el barómetro no sólo proporciona un pronóstico para el comercio futuro, sino también una perspectiva de la economía global. El indicador ha sido desarrollado en cooperación con Accenture y se publicará cada trimestre.
Según los últimos datos, el comercio transfronterizo de bienes intermedios y productos apunta hacia un aumento moderado en el comercio internacional dentro de los próximos tres meses (ver recuadro).
“Como principal proveedor de logística mundial, tenemos conocimiento profundo de las fuerzas que impulsan volúmenes de intercambio global. Nuestra red, conocimiento y experiencia nos permiten comprender las cadenas de suministro global y generar un pronóstico comercial a nivel mundial“, afirmó Tim Scharwath, presidente ejecutivo de DHL Global Forwarding, Transporte de Carga. “DHL Global Trade Barometer muestra de manera impresionante cómo la digitalización, con el uso de macrodatos y análisis predictivo, abre oportunidades completamente nuevas para beneficio de nuestros clientes“.
Accenture proporcionará el modelado de datos y el análisis predictivo para pronosticar las tendencias comerciales futuras para DHL. DHL recibirá una visión unificada de esta información, lo cual le proporcionará una comprensión más sólida del estado actual y futuro de la logística de comercio global para sus clientes.
Modelado detallado de datos ascendente
El Barometro se basa en datos de importación y exportación de productos intermedios que sirven como base para una mayor producción industrial (etiquetas de marca de ropa, paragolpes de autos, pantallas táctiles para dispositivos móviles). Como fuentes del índice, se toman datos consolidados del mercado de transporte aéreo y marítimo en containers en siete países, que representan más del 75 % del comercio internacional. Con el uso de la inteligencia artificial y varios métodos estadísticos, los datos se comprimen a una sola cifra-índice, que se publica a nivel global y de manera individual para los siete países evaluados.
El índice del barómetro representa el promedio ponderado del crecimiento actual y los dos meses siguientes del comercio internacional. Una cifra-índice superior a 50 indica un desarrollo positivo; cifras por debajo de 50 indican un descenso del comercio internacional. Las pruebas con datos históricos han revelado una alta correlación entre el nuevo barómetro y el comercio en containers, lo cual proporciona una proyección futura a tres meses.
El índice de Enero señala un crecimiento moderado sostenido en el comercio internacional
El DHL Global Trade Barometer, para enero del 2018, indica que el comercio internacional seguirá creciendo dentro de los siguientes tres meses. En su publicación inicial, el índice reveló una puntuación de 64, lo que está ligeramente por debajo de los valores calculados para los meses anteriores.
Eso significa que el comercio internacional se sigue considerando en modo expansivo; sin embargo, el crecimiento pierde impulso. El descenso se debe a proyecciones débiles para el comercio chino y japonés, que se compensan sólo parcialmente por las proyecciones mejoradas para la India, Corea del Sur y Gran Bretaña.
Además de los hallazgos sobre el comercio internacional en general, el barómetro proporciona información detallada sobre temas específicos; por ejemplo, los principales factores macroeconómicos que afectan las tendencias comerciales o los países y las regiones que impulsan el comercio global. Al descomponer la cadena de suministro global, se pueden identificar las tendencias de volumen dentro de los sectores de la industria e indicar aquellos que superan expectativas y los que se debilitan.
La información de DHL Global Trade Barometer ayudará a los clientes de DHL a optimizar sus procesos de negocio; por ejemplo, al brindar orientación en cuanto a decisiones sobre inversión o cadenas de suministro.
Debido a la alta calidad de los datos, la empresa cree que DHL Global Trade Barometer tiene una relevancia que va más allá de la logística, ya que es un indicador del comercio futuro y el crecimiento económico a nivel mundial, es posible que el índice sea integrado en modelos de pronóstico por parte de bancos, asociaciones o institutos de investigación económica.
“En un mundo caracterizado por la volatilidad y la incertidumbre, nosotros contribuimos a una mayor transparencia y predictibilidad para el beneficio de nuestros clientes, nuestro negocio y la sociedad”, dijo Tim Scharwath.
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