La paradoja entre la “lluvia de dólares financieros” generada por el atractivo de las tasas de interés locales luego de la salida del cepo y el arreglo con los holdouts y el enfriamiento de la economía real frente a la pérdida de poder adquisitivo de los salarios será la foto del año 2016.
Por Federico Furiase y Martín Vauthier, Economistas de Estudio Bein


A pesar del ingreso de capitales que ayudó a financiar el gradualismo fiscal, la economía real sintió el impacto asimétrico de la corrección de precios relativos (movimiento de dólar y tarifas) requerida para empezar a revertir los desequilibrios macroeconómicos heredados y recrear los espacios de rentabilidad de la inversión (16% del PIB), a costa de una aceleración de la inflación en la primera parte del año que terminó licuando el poder adquisitivo de los salarios y arrastrando a la baja el consumo (84% del PIB). Por eso, en línea con nuestras proyecciones para este año, la economía cerrará el año con una caída del PIB (en torno a -2,6%) y una inflación que si bien se desacelera (hacia la zona de 22% anualizado según PriceStats) luego del impacto de la corrección de precios relativos, cerrará en diciembre en la zona de 40% anual contra el mismo mes del año pasado.
Desde agosto, la economía parece haber encontrado un piso luego del desplome evidenciado en el segundo trimestre, sin embargo, los datos optimistas que habían aparecido en agosto y que mostraban una recuperación en el margen, no prosperaron, a pesar del fuerte ingreso de dólares financieros a la economía local. Distintas lecturas posibles…
“Cortocircuitos” entre una política monetaria que fue contractiva desde el lado de la señal de la tasa de interés y de la dinámica de los agregados monetarios para anclar las expectativas de inflación, y una política fiscal que fue “expansiva” desde el lado del desequilibrio fiscal, financiada en buena parte con dólares de la deuda y generando cierta presión al atraso cambiario en el camino, pero limitando los efectos expansivos sobre la economía real al generar una transferencia de ingresos en detrimento de los sectores con una mayor propensión marginal a consumir.
Probablemente, un cambio marginal en la propensión a consumir, no sólo producto de la caída en la capacidad de compra de los salarios y la incertidumbre que genera el nivel de empleo, sino también frente a los incentivos a ahorrar derivado de la transición hacia un régimen con tasas reales positivas (contra las expectativas de inflación) y tipo de cambio flexible.
Tasas altas y dólar estable desde febrero fue la señal al desarme de stocks de las familias (y compra de durables entre otras) y las empresas, explicando en parte el frenazo de la economía.
La demora en las inversiones, en parte por la revisión y renegociación de la obra pública del gobierno anterior, pero también por las idas y vueltas en el esquema tarifario que pusieron un freno en las inversiones en transporte y distribución de gas y electricidad. Además, la puesta en marcha de nuevas inversiones puede demorar en los sectores de la industria con capacidad ociosa.
Brasil, al igual que Argentina, parecía que arrancaba y luego frenó. En el tercer trimestre, la economía brasileña cayó 0,8% en el margen, acumulando un retroceso de 4,4% en los últimos 4 trimestres.
En noviembre se empezó a vislumbrar una segunda vuelta de “brotes verdes” en algunos sectores, que habrá que seguir de cerca para ver si se sostienen en el tiempo: producción de autos, impulsada por las exportaciones; despachos de cemento, que podría reflejar un repunte de la obra pública; financiamiento al sector privado vinculado al consumo (tarjetas de crédito, personales y prendarios) frente a la baja de la tasa de interés de la política monetaria y el deslizamiento más rápido del tipo de cambio en el margen. No obstante, datos en sentido contrario, como la caída en el índice construya durante noviembre, requieren monitorear la dinámica de los números que se vayan conociendo en las próximas semanas, sobre si esta segunda vuelta de “brotes verdes”, a diferencia de la primera durante agosto, finalmente se sostendrá.
De cara al 2017, creemos que los factores que jugaron en contra en 2016 empezarían a jugar a favor, junto a una mejora en las expectativas de aumento en la cosecha incentivada por el cambio en la ecuación que generó la salida del cepo y la baja de retenciones.
Puntualmente, consideramos que la liquidez global seguirá estando disponible, aunque probablemente a tasas de interés más altas frente al nuevo equilibrio de dólar y tasas en el mundo luego del corrimiento de las expectativas de inflación/crecimiento en EE.UU. por el “efecto Trump”, frente a los obstáculos que tiene la Reserva Federal de EE.UU. (Fed) para acelerar en el corto plazo la suba de tasas desde el lado de la deuda de las familias y el sector público, sobre todo mientras la expectativa de mayor inflación/crecimiento no se traslade hacia la economía real.
Y bajo este escenario internacional, partiendo de bajos niveles de deuda pública en el mercado y con algo de colchón cambiario, la política económica aún cuenta con los grados de libertad para financiar el agujero fiscal y convalidar una recuperación del salario real en el año electoral que impulse el consumo privado (3%) pari passu un rebote de la obra pública que juegue a favor de un salto en la inversión (15%), consistente con nuestro escenario base de un rebote del crecimiento económico (hasta la zona de 5%) en 2017.
Con salarios que probablemente estén a mitad de camino entre la meta de inflación del BCRA para 2017 y la inercia inflacionaria pasada, y corrección tarifaria por delante presionando sobre la dinámica inflacionaria (agregando en torno a 3 p.p. adicionales), el BCRA cuenta con margen para convalidar vía la señal de la tasa de interés de la política monetaria, en un contexto de ingreso de dólares para financiar la brecha fiscal (en torno a 5,3% del PIB la brecha fiscal estimada a financiar en el mercado internacional y local, de las cuales 3,3% del PIB son en pesos), un deslizamiento del precio del dólar por debajo del aumento de los salarios (ancla cambiaria), permitiendo así que la inflación (proyectada en la zona de 24% anual) quede a mitad de camino entre la dinámica de los salarios (28%) y el deslizamiento del tipo de cambio, en línea con una recuperación del poder adquisitivo de los salarios (en torno a 4 p.p.) que impulse el consumo.
El otro determinante de la construcción del escenario con rebote del crecimiento en 2017 (hasta la zona de 5%) recae sobre una reactivación fuerte de la obra pública luego de la parálisis de este año, que contribuya significativamente al crecimiento del PIB.
La política monetaria empieza a ser menos contractiva luego de la baja de la tasa de interés y la expansión en el margen de la base monetaria en las últimas licitaciones de Lebacs en un contexto de altos vencimientos de letras, y en todo caso, el desafío de corto plazo será manejar el nuevo equilibrio dólar-tasa de interés para mantener las expectativas de inflación ancladas frente a las negociaciones paritarias que se avecinan.
Además, Brasil dejaría de restar: la baja de la tasa de interés de la política monetaria en ese país podría empezar a ayudar si el ingreso de los capitales se mantiene frente a la incertidumbre política y fiscal.
El ingreso de dólares por el sinceramiento fiscal ayudaría desde el lado fiscal y cambiario.
Luego del aumento en la volatilidad de los mercados internacionales, reflejado en la aceleración en las expectativas de inflación de EEUU y mayores rendimientos de bonos del Tesoro, y el desarme del carry trade (en bonos y monedas emergentes), sobrevino el “efecto Trump”.
Con Trump en el gobierno, construimos un escenario alternativo en el cual los mercados internacionales de crédito se cierran parcialmente y el tipo de cambio vuelve a ser una variable de ajuste frente a una política económica que prioriza el activo de la flexibilidad cambiaria de largo plazo por sobre el ancla cambiaria (atraso cambiario) de corto plazo.
En este escenario alternativo, los salarios no le ganan a una inflación que se acelera frente a un movimiento más rápido del tipo de cambio, el consumo no tracciona y el crecimiento en 2017 (2,9%) quedaría explicado fundamentalmente por el salto en la inversión (12%) impulsado por la obra pública.
Y si bien en el “largo plazo estamos todos muertos”, el gran desafío será conectar las señales de precios relativos con el acceso al crédito (costo financiero) para impulsar la inversión sin perder de vista la consistencia social de corto plazo (el poder adquisitivo de los consumidores), sobre todo, en los sectores que permitan aumentar la productividad y la oferta potencial de dólares, intentando así impulsar un crecimiento sostenido en el tiempo que permita el repago futuro de la deuda.
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