Seguirá la estanflación, con leve mejora en el 2º y 3er. trimestre

La estanflación seguirá en 2015; es decir no se crecerá y la inflación continuará siendo elevada. Aunque el escenario será mejor que el de 2014. Según las estimaciones de la consultora Economía y Regiones, el nivel de actividad se ubicará entre -0.5% y +0.5% en el mejor de los escenarios. […]

La estanflación seguirá en 2015; es decir no se crecerá y la inflación continuará siendo elevada. Aunque el escenario será mejor que el de 2014. Según las estimaciones de la consultora Economía y Regiones, el nivel de actividad se ubicará entre -0.5% y +0.5% en el mejor de los escenarios. Paralelamente, la inflación interanual se comportará con forma de “u”: seguirá bajando durante los próximos meses, para luego volver a acelerarse en torno al 30%.
Sin embargo, es importante destacar que, coincidiendo con el ciclo político electoral, de aquí al fin del tercer trimestre vendrán los “mejores” meses del año en materia de consumo y dinamismo de la demanda agregada. En este sentido, la economía ya encontró un piso porque las expectativas del cambio de gobierno ponen una red de contención al nivel de actividad, evitando que la caída se profundice como sucedió en 2014. Pero no todo es consecuencia de las expectativas sobre el fin del ciclo. También hay que considerar que la actual estrategia económica del gobierno apunta a que el nivel de actividad deje de caer y mejore marginalmente.
Aun así, el accionar del gobierno no es otra cosa que una sucesión de parches que apuntan sólo al cortísimo plazo signado por el ciclo electoral. El gobierno quiere que la estabilidad financiera sobretodo y la economía lleguen lo mejor posible hacia fin de año; aún a sabiendas que en realidad se están agrandando los problemas debajo de la alfombra, por lo que la herencia será más pesada. Lo paradójico es que el aparente éxito de corto plazo implica necesariamente más dificultades y costos en el mediano y largo plazo.
La estrategia del Gobierno es básica y ya fue aplicada por otros gobiernos a lo largo de nuestra historia económica: se utiliza el tipo de cambio como ancla nominal, forjando un atraso cambiario, que apunta a moderar la inflación y atenuar el proceso recesivo a través de una recomposición de los salarios reales y en dólares, al menos hasta las elecciones de octubre. Asimismo, para poder llevar a cabo este plan se recompone (maquilla) el stock de reservas para apaciguar las expectativas de devaluación (e inflación).
¿Por qué tanta obsesión por las reservas? Hay un piso de reservas (desconocido) a partir del cual la estabilidad financiera y la gobernabilidad comienzan a erosionarse. Ergo, un pilar fundamental del gobierno será mantenerse lejos de este piso. Por consiguiente, es de esperar que de aquí a fin de año se intente acudir nuevamente al mercado para engrosar las reservas vía colocaciones de deuda.
Pero este aumento de las reservas también se sustenta en un incremento de las restricciones comerciales y del agravamiento del default, lo que tiene costos en materia de actividad. Más en detalle, las reservas alcanzaron usd 33.900 millones, incrementándose unos usd 2.400 millones en abril ’15, como consecuencia de las colocaciones del Bonar 2024 y de YPF por USD 1.200 millones (la semana pasada).
Pero la estrategia del gobierno no es sólo financiera. Es decir, no termina con el tipo de cambio, el endeudamiento y las reservas. Por el contrario, también tiene una pata ligada a la economía real que apunta a incentivar el consumo, el gasto y la demanda agregada para que

el nivel de actividad de 2015 sea mejor que el pobre desempeño del 2014. En este sentido, hay que recordar que de acuerdo con nuestras estimaciones el nivel de actividad se había contraído un -2.5% en 2014.

264 thoughts on “Seguirá la estanflación, con leve mejora en el 2º y 3er. trimestre

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Abandonó su bienes materiales para no `estar atado´, pero sigue haciendo negocios millonarios. Es hijo y nieto de artistas, pero su arte lo demostró en la bolsa y comprando empresas en todo el mundo. Es un intelectual que pregona la austeridad, aunque se lo puede ver en fastuosas fiestas en […]

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tiempo de lectura: 2 min