Por Miguel Ángel Boggiano, CEO de Carta Financiera LLC y docente de la Maestría en Finanzas de la Universidad de San Andrés
En los últimos meses el gobierno endureció como nunca antes las restricciones p ara importar. ¿Para importar qué cosas? Todo aquello que el aparato central no considere “de máxima necesidad”. De esta manera, como en típico caso de economía dirigida por un planeamiento central (como fueron la Unión Soviética y la China comunista), la consecuencia inmediata es que empiecen a faltar productos de todo tipo. ¿Por qué pasa esto?
En una economía libre, el sistema de precios es el que se encarga de que haya una provisión de productos para los cuales hay una demanda. Pero lo que es realmente importante es que a través del sistema de precios se transmite -de manera instantánea y con un altísimo grado de complejidad- información. ¿Información de qué? De excesos de oferta y de demanda, que se traducen de manera auto mática en subas y bajas de precio.
El gobierno argentino, como lo hace hoy también el gobierno de Venezuela, pretende centralizar ese mecanismo de información imponiendo un criterio arbitrario de escasez y abundancia relativa. ¿Por qué lo hacen? Básicamente por dos razones: 1. Necesitan acaparar la mayor cantidad de dólares posibles para importar energía (problema que ellos mismos generaron); 2. Necesitan tener un stock de reservas que no pierda “demasiada” relación con la base monetaria. Porque saben que tarde o temprano el tipo de cambio va a presionar si tienen pocas reservas.
En los próximos meses veremos cada vez con más intensidad el faltante de productos. Para ser justos, hoy no es dramático, pero se notará de manera creciente. ¿El motivo? Las empresas se están quedando sin stock de diferentes insumos. Y cuando se les haya acabado su stock de insumos, simplemente no podrán producir algunos bienes. La consecuencia de las dificultades para importar es u na profundización en la caída de la actividad económica.
Me voy a concentrar en tres grandes sectores afectados por estas restricciones a las importaciones: construcción, automotriz y telefonía celular. Pero además de estos sectores detallaré una lista de productos que no son menores y que merecen atención.
1. Construcción:
En este sector los principales faltantes son las terminaciones: en lo que es obra gruesa no hay. ¿Qué son terminaciones? Bañaderas (no entran importadas y las pocas nacionales ya subieron un 60% en lo que va de 2014); faltan porcelanatos y cerámicos porque es caro cocinarlos (falta de gas) y se consiguen sólo nacionales (ni hablar de los riesgos de conseguir reposición); equipos acondicionadores de aire centrales; porteros eléctricos; herrajes de aluminio; grifería importada. El principal problema es que se reducen las alternativas y no se sabe si efectivamente se conseguirán las terminaciones para los tiempos de la obra. ¿Quiénes son los beneficiados? Los que producen terminaciones. Ahora no tienen que competir con lo importado y en muchos casos tienen productos de menor calidad. ¿Quiénes son los perjudicados? Los consumidores finales.
2. Automotriz:
A las grandes marcas les aprueban todos los productos, ya que incluso a un dólar de 8,50, son muy caros. El problema recae sobre las PyMEs. Acá la restricción de importaciones es extrema. De esta manera, las grandes corporaciones que tanto critica el gobierno tienen utilidades extraordinarias y monopolizan el mercado ante la ausencia de productos alternativos. ¿Quiénes son los perjudicados? Los consumidores finales. (Como nota al margen y relacionado con este sector, cabe resaltar que hay problemas para conseguir repuestos para tractores y maquinaria agrícola. Motosierras Stihl apiladas esperando repuestos de piezas chicas).
3. Telefonía celular:
Todos sabemos que la prestación del servicio de t elefonía celular en Argentina es sencillamente desastroso (en especial en la Ciudad de Buenos Aires). ¿Podrá la nueva tecnología 4G resolver el problema? No realmente. La gente de Movistar y Claro está teniendo problemas de stock de todos los equipos que se fabrican en Tierra del Fuego: LG, Samsung y Nokia. Estiman que después de Navidad tendrán desabastecimiento ya que no pueden entrar piezas. ¿Por qué habrían de invertir en antenas nuevas sin después no habrá equipos para aprovechar la tecnología 4G?
A estos tres grandes grupos podemos sumar diferentes industrias afectadas:
– No se puede realizar tests de control de calidad. Faltan papel y tinta para graficadores, tubos de ensayo para viscosimetría, lámparas para espectrofotometría. Esto alcanza a decenas de industrias.
– Industria del vino: no dejan importar barricas, corchos ni cápsulas.
– No se consiguen cámaras de vídeo, ni fotografía (todo es importado).
– Hubo faltante de la vacuna séxtuple en la Ciudad de Buenos Aires (contra sarampión y otras)
– Faltantes en productos de cuidado personal.
La lista y los ejemplos siguen. Simplemente no hay manera de suplantar al mecanismo del sistema de precios con una economía de comando. Se sabe absolutamente en todo el mundo, menos en Argentina y Venezuela (en Rusia y China dejaron hace tiempo esta idea infructuosa).
Conclusión: la guerra contra el tipo de cambio y la escasez de dólares comenzará a cobrarse nuevas víctimas. ¿Quiénes? Los consumidores finales. El relato indica que buscan desalentar a los especuladores. Pero eso es falso y las consecuencias serán menos puestos de trabajo.
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