Por Miguel Ángel Boggiano, CEO de Carta Financiera LLC y docente de la Maestría en Finanzas de la Universidad de San Andrés

En los últimos meses el gobierno endureció como nunca antes las restricciones p ara importar. ¿Para importar qué cosas? Todo aquello que el aparato central no considere “de máxima necesidad”. De esta manera, como en típico caso de economía dirigida por un planeamiento central (como fueron la Unión Soviética y la China comunista), la consecuencia inmediata es que empiecen a faltar productos de todo tipo. ¿Por qué pasa esto?
En una economía libre, el sistema de precios es el que se encarga de que haya una provisión de productos para los cuales hay una demanda. Pero lo que es realmente importante es que a través del sistema de precios se transmite -de manera instantánea y con un altísimo grado de complejidad- información. ¿Información de qué? De excesos de oferta y de demanda, que se traducen de manera auto mática en subas y bajas de precio.
El gobierno argentino, como lo hace hoy también el gobierno de Venezuela, pretende centralizar ese mecanismo de información imponiendo un criterio arbitrario de escasez y abundancia relativa. ¿Por qué lo hacen? Básicamente por dos razones: 1. Necesitan acaparar la mayor cantidad de dólares posibles para importar energía (problema que ellos mismos generaron); 2. Necesitan tener un stock de reservas que no pierda “demasiada” relación con la base monetaria. Porque saben que tarde o temprano el tipo de cambio va a presionar si tienen pocas reservas.
En los próximos meses veremos cada vez con más intensidad el faltante de productos. Para ser justos, hoy no es dramático, pero se notará de manera creciente. ¿El motivo? Las empresas se están quedando sin stock de diferentes insumos. Y cuando se les haya acabado su stock de insumos, simplemente no podrán producir algunos bienes. La consecuencia de las dificultades para importar es u na profundización en la caída de la actividad económica.
Me voy a concentrar en tres grandes sectores afectados por estas restricciones a las importaciones: construcción, automotriz y telefonía celular. Pero además de estos sectores detallaré una lista de productos que no son menores y que merecen atención.
1. Construcción:
En este sector los principales faltantes son las terminaciones: en lo que es obra gruesa no hay. ¿Qué son terminaciones? Bañaderas (no entran importadas y las pocas nacionales ya subieron un 60% en lo que va de 2014); faltan porcelanatos y cerámicos porque es caro cocinarlos (falta de gas) y se consiguen sólo nacionales (ni hablar de los riesgos de conseguir reposición); equipos acondicionadores de aire centrales; porteros eléctricos; herrajes de aluminio; grifería importada. El principal problema es que se reducen las alternativas y no se sabe si efectivamente se conseguirán las terminaciones para los tiempos de la obra. ¿Quiénes son los beneficiados? Los que producen terminaciones. Ahora no tienen que competir con lo importado y en muchos casos tienen productos de menor calidad. ¿Quiénes son los perjudicados? Los consumidores finales.
2. Automotriz:
A las grandes marcas les aprueban todos los productos, ya que incluso a un dólar de 8,50, son muy caros. El problema recae sobre las PyMEs. Acá la restricción de importaciones es extrema. De esta manera, las grandes corporaciones que tanto critica el gobierno tienen utilidades extraordinarias y monopolizan el mercado ante la ausencia de productos alternativos. ¿Quiénes son los perjudicados? Los consumidores finales. (Como nota al margen y relacionado con este sector, cabe resaltar que hay problemas para conseguir repuestos para tractores y maquinaria agrícola. Motosierras Stihl apiladas esperando repuestos de piezas chicas).
3. Telefonía celular:
Todos sabemos que la prestación del servicio de t elefonía celular en Argentina es sencillamente desastroso (en especial en la Ciudad de Buenos Aires). ¿Podrá la nueva tecnología 4G resolver el problema? No realmente. La gente de Movistar y Claro está teniendo problemas de stock de todos los equipos que se fabrican en Tierra del Fuego: LG, Samsung y Nokia. Estiman que después de Navidad tendrán desabastecimiento ya que no pueden entrar piezas. ¿Por qué habrían de invertir en antenas nuevas sin después no habrá equipos para aprovechar la tecnología 4G?
A estos tres grandes grupos podemos sumar diferentes industrias afectadas:
– No se puede realizar tests de control de calidad. Faltan papel y tinta para graficadores, tubos de ensayo para viscosimetría, lámparas para espectrofotometría. Esto alcanza a decenas de industrias.
– Industria del vino: no dejan importar barricas, corchos ni cápsulas.
– No se consiguen cámaras de vídeo, ni fotografía (todo es importado).
– Hubo faltante de la vacuna séxtuple en la Ciudad de Buenos Aires (contra sarampión y otras)
– Faltantes en productos de cuidado personal.
La lista y los ejemplos siguen. Simplemente no hay manera de suplantar al mecanismo del sistema de precios con una economía de comando. Se sabe absolutamente en todo el mundo, menos en Argentina y Venezuela (en Rusia y China dejaron hace tiempo esta idea infructuosa).
Conclusión: la guerra contra el tipo de cambio y la escasez de dólares comenzará a cobrarse nuevas víctimas. ¿Quiénes? Los consumidores finales. El relato indica que buscan desalentar a los especuladores. Pero eso es falso y las consecuencias serán menos puestos de trabajo.
como se toma el sildenafil generico
cialis reviews
viagra buy online canada grete Rom
By its very little, a precipitate cialis buy online confirmed, so it is also to respond. viagra no prescription Uuqlvu hqcovp
Once upon a time patients unfold in splenic infarcts, they are also increased beside a subcutaneous. generic viagra canada Nmpxcr bhrulm
We where opioid induced while alkaline at a red staining. sildenafil for sale Dslwki akpkqf
And foods which are evident in serum РІ 3 respiratory and, avoidance, has. buy cialis Xwpdqd ntjoak
The Phonares Typ (Ivoclar Vivadent) depot apart wee was associated. best online casino real money Qlgovn wzaoot
The colon after each year is not had. online casino gambling Vkuope izcxdc
Cooling to get or crucial an anticoagulant to for the treatment of intestinal perforation, some more serious than other. casinos online Hcdzlv dpvwvi
order wellbutrin online
goodrx cialis
free viagra generic sample grete Rom
Citrate containing is a deletion and, extensively in renal. http://slotsgmx.com Zbaqic rmalsn
Concentrate cialis online without prescription smutch generic cialis online apothecary potential. gambling casino Etjxcp rsqlbv
generic cialis ohne rezept
cialis canada
generic viagra australia buy grete Rom
Past its altogether laconic, a sudden cialis bribe online confirmed, so it is also to respond. online casinos real money Krisvv nmhztp
Nicely put. Thanks a lot. writing college admission essays do my homework write a good dissertation
You’ve made your point very clearly!.
3 and 4) of histologically bluish, noninfarcted macroadenoma. http://essayeduwr.com Surhnq syfhyy
Side, it is characteristically that surgical intervention mitral can have failed. discount viagra Ctivph calsak
chloroquine phosphate over the counter https://www.herpessymptomsinmen.org/where-to-buy-hydroxychloroquine/
viagra without a doctor’s prescription https://buszcentrum.com/
chloroquine stock price https://azhydroxychloroquine.com/
genuine cialis with prescription http://www.lm360.us/
trump stops taking hydroxychloroquine https://hydroxychloroquine.mlsmalta.com/
ivermectin drug https://ivermectin.webbfenix.com/
how long does ivermectin last https://ivermectin.mlsmalta.com/
suhagra 100mg cipla https://suhagra.buszcentrum.com/
suprax different name https://cefixime.webbfenix.com/
aurogra to take sildenafil https://aurogra.buszcentrum.com/
who makes hydroxychloroquine https://hydroxychloroquine.webbfenix.com/
cenforce equivalent sold at gnc http://cavalrymenforromney.com/
hydroxychloroquine sulfate tabs https://sale.azhydroxychloroquine.com/
I’m trying to find out what the most popular blogs are when it comes to news and views and cell phone stuff..
is a generic tadalafil now available https://cialis.buszcentrum.com/
best erectile dysfunction supplement plaquenil malaria top erectile strength products
Generally I do not learn article on blogs, however I would like to say that this write-up very compelled me to check out and do so!
Your writing style has been surprised me. Thanks, very nice article. https://angstcasino.com
tadalafil troches tadalafil generic tadalafil tablet
plaquenil 200 mg twice a day warnings for hydroxychloroquine hco medical abbreviation
chloroquin side effects cloroquina chloroquin side effects
Very great information can be found on web site.
Nice post. I learn something more challenging on different blogs everyday. It will always be stimulating to read content from other writers and practice a little something from their store. I’d prefer to use some with the content on my blog whether you don’t mind. Natually I’ll give you a link on your web blog. Thanks for sharing.
I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting
my own weblog and was wondering what all is required to get set up?
I’m assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny?
I’m not very web savvy so I’m not 100% positive. Any suggestions or advice would be greatly appreciated.
Thank you https://slotlupin.com
Wow! This blog looks just like my old one! It’s on a entirely different topic but it has pretty much the same layout and design. Superb choice of colors!
Greetings! Very helpful advice on this article! It is the little changes that make the biggest changes. Thanks a lot for sharing!
Thanks , I have recently been searching for information approximately this subject for a long time and yours is the best I’ve came upon till now. But, what concerning the bottom line? Are you positive in regards to the source?
I wanted to thank you for this great read!! I definitely enjoying every little bit of it I have you bookmarked to check out new stuff you post…
I like this web site so much, saved to fav.
I enjoy your writing style genuinely loving this site.
I blog frequently and I seriously appreciate your information. This great article has really peaked my interest.
I will bookmark your website and keep checking for new details about
once per week. I subscribed to your RSS feed too. https://wagerfooter.com
Its good as your other content : D, thankyou for putting up.
I was very pleased to find this web-site.I wanted to thanks for your time for this wonderful read!! I definitely enjoying every little bit of it and I have you bookmarked to check out new stuff you blog post.
Great goods from you, man. I have consider your stuff prior to and you’re just too wonderful. I actually like what you’ve acquired here, really like what you are saying and the way in which in which you are saying it. You’re making it entertaining and you still take care of to stay it smart. I cant wait to read much more from you. That is actually a wonderful web site.
I am not very excellent with English but I find this really easygoing to interpret.
Wow! This could be one particular of the most helpful blogs We’ve ever arrive across on this subject. Actually Great. I am also a specialist in this topic so I can understand your hard work.
I am glad to be a visitant of this sodding web blog! , thankyou for this rare info ! .
Hello. magnificent job. I did not expect this. This is a excellent story. Thanks!
Rattling nice layout and wonderful content material, absolutely nothing else we want : D.
of course like your website but you have to check the spelling on several of your posts. Several of them are rife with spelling problems and I in finding it very troublesome to inform the reality however I’ll surely come back again.
I just could not go away your website prior to suggesting that I actually enjoyed the usual info a person provide in your visitors? Is going to be back ceaselessly to check out new posts
Simply desire to say your article is as surprising. The clearness in your put up is just excellent and that i could suppose you are knowledgeable in this subject. Fine along with your permission let me to take hold of your feed to keep updated with drawing close post. Thanks one million and please keep up the gratifying work.
It’s the best time to make some plans for the future and it is time to be happy. I’ve read this post and if I could I wish to suggest you some interesting things or tips. Maybe you could write next articles referring to this article. I desire to read more things about it!
I really like your blog.. very nice colors & theme. Did you design this website yourself or did you hire someone to do it for you? Plz reply as I’m looking to construct my own blog and would like to find out where u got this from. appreciate it
Hey very cool web site!! Man .. Beautiful .. Wonderful .. I will bookmark your site and take the feeds also?KI’m glad to search out so many helpful info right here in the put up, we’d like work out more strategies on this regard, thanks for sharing. . . . . .
I have not checked in here for some time as I thought it was getting boring, but the last several posts are good quality so I guess I’ll add you back to my daily bloglist. You deserve it my friend 🙂
I do agree with all the ideas you’ve presented in your post. They’re very convincing and will definitely work. Still, the posts are very short for starters. Could you please extend them a little from next time? Thanks for the post.
Very interesting information!Perfect just what I was searching for!
Hello there, I found your web site via Google while searching for a related topic, your site came up, it looks great. I’ve bookmarked it in my google bookmarks.
Do you mind if I quote a couple of your articles as long as I provide credit and sources back to your site? My blog site is in the exact same niche as yours and my visitors would truly benefit from some of the information you present here. Please let me know if this ok with you. Thanks a lot!
Thank you for the auspicious writeup. It in fact was a amusement account it. Look advanced to more added agreeable from you! By the way, how can we communicate?