Argentina es el tercer país con más desocupación en la región

Prensa Económica 6 años ago 216

Pese a que el gobierno destaca la baja desocupación en la Argentina, en realidad esta es la tercera más alta en América Latina, según un informe del Banco Ciudad. Según el INDEC, la tasa de desempleo alcanzó al 7,5% de la población económicamente activa (PEA) en el tercer trimestre del […]

Pese a que el gobierno destaca la baja desocupación en la Argentina, en realidad esta es la tercera más alta en América Latina, según un informe del Banco Ciudad.
Según el INDEC, la tasa de desempleo alcanzó al 7,5% de la población económicamente activa (PEA) en el tercer trimestre del año. Este registro representa un aumento de 0,7 puntos porcentuales (p.p.) con relación a un año atrás, cuando se ubicaba en un 6,8%. De esta manera, en las zonas urbanas relevadas por la Encuesta Permanente de Hogares (EPH), el número de desocupados ascendió a 895 mil, registrando un aumento de 91 mil en el último año. Dicho guarismo, extrapolado a todo el país, equivale a un incremento de 137 mil desempleados, sumando un total de cerca de 1,4 millones de personas.
Este comportamiento responde a una creciente destrucción de puestos de trabajo, que llevó la tasa de ocupación a su nivel más bajo desde el año 2006, previo al primer mandato de CFK. En lo que va de 2014, se habrían perdido unos 109 mil puestos de trabajo en los centros urbanos cubiertos por la EPH, lo que equivale a una destrucción de más de 275 mil empleos a nivel país. Como resultado de ello, la tasa de empleo (u ocupación) cayó al 41,3%, su menor nivel en los últimos ocho años, tras registrar su quinta baja interanual consecutiva (-1,6 p.p.).
De todos modos, el incremento del desempleo hubiera sido aún mayor de no mediar una caída de población económicamente activa. Según el INDEC, durante el tercer trimestre la tasa de actividad (es decir, el porcentaje de la población que trabaja, sumado a aquella que no cuenta con un empleo y lo busca activamente) fue la menor de la última década (44,7%). Así, de acuerdo a las estadísticas oficiales, el impacto de la caída de la tasa de ocupación sobre el desempleo fue amortiguado por la gente que se retiró del mercado laboral, dejando de buscar activamente un empleo.
Esta altísima correlación entre las tasas de actividad y empleo despierta dudas entre los analistas respecto de la precisión de las cifras oficiales de desocupación, habida cuenta que desde que la economía ingreso en una fase de estancamiento y posterior caída, con previsibles impactos sobre la tasa de empleo, la tasa de actividad tendió a compensar estos movimientos, llevando la correlación entre ambas variables a niveles muy superiores a su media histórica. Suponiendo que la tasa de actividad se mantuviera hoy en torno a su promedio de los años 2003-10 (46%), la contracción reciente del empleo hubiera dado lugar a un incremento de la desocupación hasta el 10,3%, nivel superior al vigente durante la crisis global de 2008-09.
Por otro lado, incluso considerando las estadísticas del INDEC, Argentina se ubica entre los países con mayor desempleo de la región. Si bien la actual tasa de desocupación se encuentra en niveles históricamente bajos, si se compara con el resto de los países de Latinoamérica Argentina se sitúa hoy entre las tres economías con mayor desempleo, ubicándose sólo detrás de Colombia y Venezuela (si se consideraran los cálculos alternativos, que ubican al desempleo en torno al 10%, nuestro país lideraría el podio). En este sentido, a pesar del crecimiento económico de los últimos años, Argentina no ha podido igualar el desempeño del resto de los países de la región, mostrando que gran parte de nuestros vecinos han sabido aprovechar de mejor manera un contexto internacional muy favorable. Más aún, no sólo considerando el mercado laboral nuestro país es uno de los peor rankeados de Latinoamérica, sino que tomando en consideración los indicadores de actividad e inflación la performance reciente de Argentina sólo es comparable a la de Venezuela.
Con todo, para una administración que se considera “obsesionada” con la performance del mercado laboral, los resultados hablan por sí solos. Si a los desocupados (entre el 7% y el 10% de la población activa), se suman los NINI (900 mil jóvenes) y los ocupados informales (33% del total), se obtiene que cerca de la mitad de la fuerza laboral de Argentina se encuentra empleada en malas condiciones o directamente excluida del mercado de trabajo, performance que resulta decepcionante, tras una década de crecimiento, bajo condiciones internacionales extremadamente favorables.

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Argentina es el tercer país con más desocupación en la región

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